Ghana must prioritize value addition to sustain IMF gains – Prof Asuming

Introduction

Ghana stands at a critical juncture in its economic history. While recent engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has provided a necessary framework for macroeconomic stability, a leading economist warns that stability alone is not synonymous with prosperity. Prof. Patrick Asuming, a respected voice in economic policy, argues that the country’s current trajectory requires a fundamental shift. According to Prof. Asuming, Ghana must aggressively prioritize value addition across its key sectors to sustain the features achieved under the IMF programme.

This article delves into the expert analysis provided by Prof. Asuming, exploring why fiscal discipline must be paired with structural transformation. We will examine the risks of relying solely on IMF stabilization, the urgent need to insulate the economy from global commodity volatility, and the practical policies—such as “Buy Ghana First”—that can drive inclusive growth and job creation.

Key Points

Background

To understand the weight of Prof. Asuming’s advice, it is essential to contextualize Ghana’s current economic environment. The country entered into a programme with the International Monetary Fund to address macroeconomic imbalances, including high inflation, a depreciating currency, and a unsustainable debt burden. The initial results of these interventions have been described as “features” or gains—indicating that the immediate stabilization targets are being met.

However, historical data suggests that stabilization without structural reform often leads to “boom and bust” cycles. Prof. Asuming’s intervention on Joy FM’s Middaynews highlights this historical pattern. He suggests that while the IMF programme acts as a painkiller for the symptoms of a sick economy, it does not cure the underlying disease. The underlying disease, in this case, is an economy that relies heavily on the export of raw materials and the importation of finished goods, rather than processing its own resources.

Analysis

Prof. Asuming’s critique centers on the distinction between macroeconomic stability and economic transformation. In this section, we analyze the two primary risks he identified: structural weakness and commodity exposure.

The Trap of Raw Material Export

The core of the issue is “value addition.” In economic terms, this refers to the process of transforming a raw material into a finished product with higher market value. For example, exporting cocoa beans yields a fraction of the revenue compared to exporting chocolate or cocoa butter. Prof. Asuming notes that Ghana’s structural weaknesses prevent the country from adding sufficient value to its production. Without a deliberate push to industrialize and process, the economy remains a price-taker in global markets, subject to the whims of international demand.

The Fragility of “Bear Markets”

A specific warning issued by the economist regards global commodity volatility. He stated, “If global prices enter a bear market, the value of commodities such as gold that we stockpile could decline significantly, undermining recent gains.”

A “bear market” is a condition in which prices fall 20% or more from recent highs. Because Ghana’s export basket is dominated by gold, oil, and cocoa, a bear market in any of these sectors immediately impacts foreign exchange reserves and the strength of the Cedi. By prioritizing value addition—such as refining gold locally or processing cocoa domestically—the economy generates revenue streams that are less dependent on raw commodity pricing.

The Employment Paradox

Prof. Asuming highlighted a growing disconnect between economic statistics and the lived reality of Ghanaians. He observed that the most productive sectors are “largely run by foreign interests.” While Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is generally positive, a specific model of FDI—often termed “enclave economies”—can lead to growth without development. In this scenario, profits are repatriated, and operations are capital-intensive rather than labor-intensive.

Therefore, even if Ghana’s GDP grows, unemployment may remain high. The economist argues that true economic leadership must be “broad-based,” ensuring that innovation in key sectors stimulates small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across the country.

Practical Advice

Based on Prof. Asuming’s insights, the path forward for Ghana involves specific, actionable policies that prioritize local capacity over foreign reliance.

1. Adopting a “Buy Ghana First” Policy

The most direct tool available to the government is public procurement. The government is the largest single buyer of goods and services in any economy. Prof. Asuming suggests that the state must strictly prioritize local enterprises. His advice is clear: “We must buy Ghana first and only look elsewhere when there is genuinely no local alternative.”

Implementation Strategy: This requires a legal and administrative framework that mandates government agencies to source a specific percentage of their needs from local manufacturers, provided quality standards are met. This creates a guaranteed market for local producers, allowing them to scale and eventually compete globally.

2. Supporting the “IT” Sector (Indigenous Technology)

Prof. Asuming noted that “many young Ghanaians are showing IT in small-scale processing, packaging and production.” Here, “IT” likely refers to “initiative and talent” or specific technical capabilities in the informal sector. The advice is for the state to identify these grassroots innovators.

Implementation Strategy: Instead of focusing solely on attracting mega-corporations, the government should create incubators and provide targeted subsidies for local businesses involved in processing and packaging. These sectors are labor-intensive and immediately create jobs.

3. Broad-Based Leadership

Finally, the economist calls for “broad-based leadership.” This implies that economic planning should not be centralized in a few ministries or focused only on macro-indicators.

Implementation Strategy: Policy formulation must involve stakeholders from the agricultural, manufacturing, and service sectors to ensure that growth in one area (e.g., mining) creates demand in another (e.g., local catering or logistics services).

FAQ

Conclusion

Prof. Patrick Asuming’s analysis serves as a vital reminder that economic recovery is a marathon, not a sprint. While the IMF programme provides the necessary discipline to stop the economy from overheating, it does not build the engine for long-term growth. That engine must be built through value addition.

Ghana’s path to sustainable prosperity lies in moving away from being a mere exporter of raw materials to becoming a manufacturer of finished goods. By insulating the economy from global volatility and using public procurement to foster local industries, Ghana can ensure that its economic growth translates into real jobs and improved livelihoods for its citizens. The warning is clear: stabilization without transformation is a temporary fix, but value addition is a permanent solution.

Sources

• Primary Source: Interview with Prof. Patrick Asuming on Joy FM’s Middaynews (Published: January 2, 2026).
• Contextual Data: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Country Reports on Ghana.
• Economic Context: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Gold and Cocoa price volatility analysis).