Introduction

The political landscape within Ghana’s New Patriotic Party (NPP) is heating up as the party prepares for its internal flagbearer primaries. With the election scheduled for January 31, the race to select the next presidential candidate is becoming increasingly intense. In the midst of this competition, a new study has emerged, offering a data-driven perspective on which candidate holds the decisive edge.

Dr. Evans Duah, an unbiased researcher and fiscal economist, has released findings indicating that Kennedy Ohene Agyapong is the only aspirant currently positioned to cross the critical 50% plus one vote threshold required for an outright victory. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of Dr. Duah’s research, the methodology behind it, and the implications for the NPP’s future as it seeks to return to power in the 2028 general elections.

Understanding the dynamics of internal party elections, often referred to as primaries, is essential for grasping the broader political direction of Ghana. The following sections break down the key findings, the background of the race, and what this research means for the delegates and the candidates.

Key Points

Background

To fully appreciate the significance of this research, it is necessary to understand the context of the New Patriotic Party’s internal dynamics. The NPP, one of Ghana’s two major political parties, is currently undergoing a restructuring phase after the 2024 general elections.

The 2024 Election Aftermath

Following the defeat in the 2024 general elections, the NPP initiated a reorganization process to identify the weaknesses in its campaign strategy and candidate selection. The party is keen on returning to power in 2028, making the choice of a flagbearer paramount. The flagbearer is the individual who will lead the party into the general election.

Understanding the 50% + 1 Rule

In Ghanaian internal party politics, the “50% + 1” rule is a standard provision for presidential primaries. This means that to win the nomination on the first ballot, a candidate must secure more than half of the total valid votes cast, plus one additional vote.

If no candidate achieves this threshold, a runoff election is usually held between the top two candidates. Dr. Duah’s research focuses specifically on the likelihood of any candidate avoiding a runoff by achieving an outright win in the first round.

The Contenders

The race for the NPP flagbearer position involves five main contenders. While the specific names of all candidates were not detailed in the specific excerpt analyzed, the focus remains on Kennedy Agyapong, who has been identified as the frontrunner. The competition is fierce, with each candidate vying for the support of the party delegates across the country.

Analysis

Dr. Evans Duah’s findings provide a unique window into the electoral math of the NPP primaries. His assessment is not based on speculation but on empirical data gathered from the delegates themselves.

The Researcher’s Verdict

Dr. Duah, a chartered accountant and lecturer, brings a level of analytical rigor to the political discourse. Speaking on The Pulse on PleasureNews on Monday, January 19, he stated unequivocally: “As of January, and what I have seen, if any one of these candidates will cross the 50+1, it will be Honourable Kennedy Ohene Agyapong.”

This statement is significant because it moves beyond general sentiment and offers a specific prediction based on survey data. The use of the title “Honourable” acknowledges Agyapong’s tenure as the Member of Parliament for Assin Central, a position he held for multiple terms, which contributes to his political capital.

Methodology and Independence

One of the most critical aspects of political polling is the question of bias and funding. Dr. Duah proactively addressed concerns regarding the neutrality of the study. He clarified that the survey was self-funded, stating, “I did it myself. None of the candidates funded it, and I am not biased in any way.”

This independence is crucial for the credibility of the research. In many political contexts, polls funded by campaigns can be skewed to favor the patron. By asserting financial and intellectual independence, Dr. Duah positions his findings as an objective assessment of the political reality.

Interpreting the Data

According to Dr. Duah, the data indicates that Kennedy Agyapong commands a level of support that is distinct from the other four contenders. While the race remains competitive—implying that the other candidates have substantial support bases—only Agyapong’s numbers project past the 50%+1 mark.

This suggests a consolidation of support around Agyapong that could be pivotal on voting day. The research implies that while other candidates may split the remaining votes, Agyapong has managed to build a coalition that could bridge the gap to an outright majority.

The Role of Delegates

The “delegates” in this context are the voting members of the party who participate in the primaries. These typically include constituency executives, electoral area coordinators, and other party officers. Understanding their movement is key to predicting the outcome. Dr. Duah’s survey specifically targeted this demographic to assess “voting movements” ahead of the competition.

Practical Advice

For political analysts, party members, and observers, interpreting this research requires a nuanced understanding of primary elections. Here are practical takeaways and considerations based on the findings.

For Party Delegates

Delegates play the most critical role in this process. As the election date approaches, delegates should:

• Review Candidate Manifestos: While polls indicate trends, the final decision should be based on the candidates’ policy proposals and their alignment with the party’s goals for 2028.
• Attend Campaign Events: Engaging directly with candidates allows delegates to assess viability and competence beyond what polls suggest.
• Verify Information: In the heat of a campaign, misinformation can spread. Rely on verified sources like Dr. Duah’s research rather than unverified rumors.

For Political Analysts

Analysts looking at the NPP primaries should consider the following:

• The “Frontrunner” Effect: When a candidate is identified as the likely winner (as Agyapong is here), it can create a bandwagon effect where undecided delegates swing toward the perceived winner to be on the winning side.
• The Runoff Scenario: Even with a frontrunner, the 50%+1 threshold is difficult to achieve in a crowded field. Analysts should model scenarios for a potential second-round election if the lead is not wide enough.
• Regional Dynamics: Ghanaian politics is often regionally influenced. Analyzing how Agyapong’s support is distributed across the various regions will provide deeper insight into the sustainability of his lead.

For Campaign Teams

Campaign teams for the other contenders must look at the data to identify gaps.

• Targeted Outreach: If the data shows a specific demographic or region leaning towards Agyapong, opposing teams need to intensify outreach in those areas or focus on regions where they have stronger traction.
• Coalition Building: As the primary date nears, strategic alliances or endorsements from lower-performing candidates could shift the math significantly.

FAQ

Conclusion

The research presented by Dr. Evans Duah offers a compelling snapshot of the New Patriotic Party’s presidential primaries as of January 2026. By identifying Kennedy Ohene Agyapong as the only candidate likely to secure the 50% + 1 vote required for an outright win, the study highlights the current momentum in his campaign.

However, it is important to remember that political landscapes are fluid. While data provides a guide, the actual outcome will be determined by the delegates on January 31. The independence of the research adds weight to these findings, providing a valuable tool for understanding the race.

As the NPP moves closer to selecting its flagbearer, the focus will likely intensify on Agyapong and his competitors. Whether the predicted majority materializes or if the race tightens into a runoff remains to be seen. For now, the data points to Kennedy Agyapong holding a significant advantage in the quest to lead the NPP into the 2028 general elections.