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Russia, Ukraine, and US to Conduct Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi: A Comprehensive Analysis

Introduction

In a significant diplomatic development, negotiators from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States are set to convene in Abu Dhabi for trilateral talks. This meeting marks a pivotal moment in international relations, potentially representing the first assembly of its kind attended by all three nations since the onset of the full-scale conflict nearly four years ago. The talks follow a series of high-level meetings in Moscow and Davos, signaling a renewed, albeit fragile, momentum toward conflict resolution. This article provides a detailed examination of the upcoming negotiations, exploring the key players, the contentious territorial issues, and the broader geopolitical implications of this diplomatic initiative.

Key Points

Background

The geopolitical landscape leading to the Abu Dhabi talks has been shaped by intense diplomatic maneuvering over the past year. The conflict, which began nearly four years ago, has evolved into a complex war of attrition interspersed with diplomatic breakthroughs and setbacks.

The Road to Abu Dhabi

The groundwork for the trilateral talks was laid during a meeting in Moscow between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US envoys. According to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, these preliminary discussions were described as “substantive, positive, and very frank.” The US delegation included prominent figures such as Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the former US President’s son-in-law. This high-level engagement suggests a concerted effort by Washington to mediate a resolution.

Previous Diplomatic Milestones

Reference to the “Anchorage” summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska last year highlights the continuity of these diplomatic efforts. The Kremlin has indicated that the framework discussed in Anchorage remains relevant, particularly regarding the resolution of territorial disputes. Furthermore, Steve Witkoff previously noted that Russia had agreed to allow the US and Europe to provide Ukraine with “strong” security guarantees as part of a potential peace deal.

Analysis

The Abu Dhabi talks represent a critical juncture in the conflict. However, analysis of recent statements from both sides reveals deep-seated divisions that may be difficult to bridge.

The Territorial Sticking Point

At the heart of the conflict is the issue of land. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov explicitly stated that a long-term peace deal is impossible without resolving territorial problems according to the method agreed upon in Anchorage. Russia continues to insist on its objectives for the “special military operation,” which includes control over disputed territories.

Specifically, Russia demands that Ukraine surrender the 25% of the Donetsk region that Kyiv currently controls. This is a significant barrier to peace, as it involves the cession of sovereign territory. President Zelensky has been adamant that “it’s all concerning the land,” noting that this issue remains unsolved.

The US Proposal: A Demilitarized Zone

The United States has put forward a 20-point plan to end the war, which Zelensky indicated is approximately 90% ready. A central component of this proposal is the future of the Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial heartland.

The US suggests transforming Donbas into a demilitarized and free economic zone. In exchange for this status, Ukraine would receive security guarantees from the West. President Zelensky has floated a reciprocal withdrawal of troops—up to 40km from the contact line—to create this economic zone, provided Russia does the same.

Security Guarantees and Legislative Approval

Security guarantees remain a top priority for Kyiv. Zelensky recently reached an agreement with the US regarding future security guarantees. However, the implementation of such an agreement is legally complex; it requires ratification by both the US Congress and the Ukrainian parliament. This legislative hurdle ensures that any deal struck in Abu Dhabi will undergo rigorous scrutiny before becoming binding international law.

Practical Advice for Understanding the Talks

For observers seeking to understand the nuances of the Abu Dhabi talks, it is essential to distinguish between immediate tactical discussions and long-term strategic goals.

Monitor the Delegations

Understanding who is at the table provides insight into the topics of discussion. The Russian delegation is led by General Igor Kostyukov, Director of the GRU military intelligence agency, signaling a focus on security and military logistics. Kirill Dmitriev, a capital injection envoy, will discuss economic issues separately with Steve Witkoff.

On the Ukrainian side, the delegation includes high-ranking officials such as Rustem Umerov (Head of the National Security and Defence Council), Kyrylo Budanov (Head of the President’s Office), and negotiator David Arakhamia. The presence of military leadership (General Andrii Hnatov) suggests that discussions will cover both battlefield realities and political solutions.

Interpreting Statements

Both sides use careful language. When Zelensky calls the talks “a step—hopefully against ending the war—but various things can happen,” he is tempering expectations. Similarly, the Kremlin’s description of talks as “helpful” does not equate to an imminent agreement. Observers should look for concrete proposals rather than optimistic rhetoric.

FAQ

Conclusion

The trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi mark a significant, albeit tentative, step toward resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. With high-level delegations from all three nations present, the agenda will likely focus on the most contentious issues: territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees for Kyiv.

While the Kremlin emphasizes that peace is contingent on resolving territorial disputes according to previous agreements, Ukraine remains focused on sovereignty and the need for Russian compromise. The United States acts as the primary mediator, proposing a demilitarized economic zone as a potential bridge between the two sides. As the talks proceed, the international community watches closely, aware that while a breakthrough is possible, the path to a lasting peace remains fraught with legal and political challenges.