Bawumia Tipped to Win NPP Primaries with 57% – Global InfoAnalytics Ultimate Ballot

Introduction

With the New Patriotic Party (NPP) internal election just days away, the race to select a flagbearer for the 2028 general elections has reached a critical juncture. A comprehensive new survey conducted by Global Info Analytics has provided a decisive look into the delegate landscape, positioning former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as the clear frontrunner. According to the poll released on January 23, 2026, Dr. Bawumia commands a significant lead, suggesting that the “Bawumia Factor” remains the dominant force in the party’s internal politics despite spirited challenges.

This article breaks down the latest polling data, analyzes regional strongholds, examines the rise of other candidates, and provides practical context for understanding the upcoming NPP primaries. By exploring the methodology and the implications of these numbers, we gain a clearer picture of the likely outcome of the party’s flagbearer election.

Key Points

Background

The New Patriotic Party (NPP) is Ghana’s ruling party, and the process of selecting a flagbearer—often referred to as the “primaries” or “special delegate conference”—is a pivotal event in the nation’s political calendar. As the party prepares for the 2028 general elections, the internal contest determines who will lead the NPP against the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).

The Context of the 2026 Primaries

This specific primary race is historically significant. Following the 2024 general elections, the party is looking to reorganize and select a candidate capable of securing victory in 2028. The race features a mix of established figures and grassroots mavericks, creating a dynamic tension between the party’s central establishment and its base.

The Candidates in Focus

The Global Info Analytics poll highlights a top tier of candidates shaping the discourse:

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia: The immediate past Vice President of Ghana. As a two-time running mate and a key figure in the previous administration, he represents continuity and experience in governance. His campaign leans heavily on his technocratic background and his historic nomination as a Muslim Northerner leading the party.

Kennedy Ohene Agyapong: A long-serving Member of Parliament for Assin Central, Agyapong is known for his outspoken nature and business acumen. He positions himself as an anti-establishment figure fighting for the grassroots, often criticizing the internal party machinery.

Dr. Bryan Acheampong: The MP for Abetifi and former Minister for Food and Agriculture. He has recently seen a surge in popularity, positioning himself as a younger, energetic alternative who can bridge divides within the party.

Analysis of the Global InfoAnalytics Ultimate Ballot

The poll, released on January 23, 2026, offers a granular view of delegate intentions. The data suggests that while the race is competitive in spirit, the mathematical probability favors a decisive victory for the former Vice President.

Projected Vote Distribution

The Executive Director of Global Info Analytics, Mussa Dankwa, outlined the predictive model as follows:

• Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia: 57%
• Kennedy Ohene Agyapong: 28%
• Dr. Bryan Acheampong: 13%
• Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum: 2%
• Kwabena Agyepong: 0%

These figures indicate that Dr. Bawumia has achieved a threshold of support that is difficult to overturn in a first-past-the-post system. With 57%, he is polling above the 50% mark, suggesting a potential first-round victory depending on the specific rules of the NPP’s electoral college.

The Rise of Dr. Bryan Acheampong

One of the most notable shifts in the January data is the ascent of Dr. Bryan Acheampong. Moving from single digits in late 2025 to 13% in the final week of polling, the Abetifi MP has successfully branded himself as the “unity candidate.” This surge suggests that delegates looking for a middle ground—neither the establishment candidate nor the maverick opposition—are consolidating around Acheampong. However, his 13% share currently positions him more as a kingmaker than a primary winner.

Methodological Rigor

To ensure the accuracy of these predictions, Global Info Analytics utilized a robust methodology. The survey employed Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI), a modern technique that allows for real-time data validation and reduces interviewer bias.

• Sample Size: 10,133 respondents.
• Scope: Spanned 272 constituencies across Ghana, ensuring a national snapshot rather than an urban-centric view.
• Confidence Level: The poll claims an extraordinary 99.9% confidence level.
• Margin of Error: A razor-thin margin of error of ±1.57% was recorded for the direct polling. For the comprehensive predictive model—which accounts for historical delegate behavior and undecided voters—the margin is set at ±3.0%.

This level of statistical precision adds significant weight to the findings, positioning the poll as a reliable indicator of the impending outcome.

Regional Strongholds and Battlegrounds

Understanding the geographic distribution of support is vital to analyzing the NPP’s electoral dynamics. The party’s delegate base is heavily influenced by regional demographics and historical loyalties.

The Northern Sweep

Dr. Bawumia’s lead is anchored in a near-total sweep of the five Northern regions. As a Northerner and a Muslim, Bawumia commands deep loyalty in these areas, which have historically been pivotal in NPP internal elections. His support extends significantly into the North East and Upper West regions, where his cultural and religious identity resonates with the local electorate. This regional dominance provides him with a massive numerical buffer.

Ashanti and Central Regions: The Battlegrounds

The Ashanti Region is traditionally considered the stronghold of the NPP, often referred to as the “World Bank” of the party. While Bawumia maintains a strong national presence, Kennedy Agyapong continues to hold a competitive edge in specific pockets of the Ashanti and Central regions.

Agyapong’s message resonates with delegates who feel marginalized by the party’s central establishment. His campaign rhetoric focuses on grassroots empowerment and a rejection of political dynasties. In the Central Region, his business background and direct communication style appeal to a segment of the delegates who prioritize economic pragmatism over political continuity.

Practical Advice: How to Interpret Polling Data

For political observers and party delegates, interpreting polling data requires a nuanced approach. While the numbers from Global Info Analytics are compelling, it is essential to understand the mechanics of election polling.

Understanding Margin of Error

The margin of error (±1.57% to ±3.0% in this poll) represents the range within which the true value likely falls. For example, if a candidate is polling at 57% with a margin of error of 3%, their actual support could be as low as 54% or as high as 60%. This is crucial because in a delegate-based election, small percentage shifts can translate into significant vote counts.

The Weighting of Historical Data

Global Info Analytics notes that their predictive model factors in “historical delegate behavior.” This is a critical component. Polls are not just snapshots of current opinion; they are predictions based on how people have voted in the past. In the NPP, delegates often vote along regional, ethnic, or factional lines. Understanding these historical trends helps explain why Bawumia’s numbers remain resilient despite opposition.

Delegate Loyalty vs. Voter Sentiment

It is important to distinguish between general voter sentiment and delegate sentiment. This poll specifically targets the NPP delegates—the few thousand individuals who will cast ballots in the primaries. These delegates are often more politically engaged and loyal to party structures than the general public. Therefore, polls focusing on delegates tend to be more stable than general election polls.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the “Bawumia Factor”?

The “Bawumia Factor” refers to the unique political influence Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia holds within the NPP. It encompasses his ability to bridge the North-South divide, his appeal to the Muslim community, and his technocratic reputation. It also refers to his resilience in polls despite the challenges faced by the incumbent government.

How accurate is the Global Info Analytics poll?

According to the data provided, the poll has a 99.9% confidence level and a margin of error of ±1.57%. This makes it statistically robust. However, all polls are estimates and should be viewed as indicators of trends rather than guarantees of outcome.

Who is Kennedy Agyapong?

Kennedy Ohene Agyapong is a Ghanaian politician and businessman representing the Assin Central constituency. He is known for his populist approach and often campaigns on an anti-corruption platform, challenging the status quo within the NPP.

What is the role of Dr. Bryan Acheampong?

Dr. Bryan Acheampong is currently polling at 13%. While not the frontrunner, his rising numbers suggest he is becoming a significant influencer in the race. As a “unity candidate,” he may play a crucial role in coalition building or future leadership structures within the party.

When are the NPP primaries?

The article references the poll as being released with “only seven days left” until the election. Based on the publication date of January 23, 2026, the NPP flagbearer election is scheduled for late January 2026.

Conclusion

The Global InfoAnalytics ultimate ballot paints a clear picture of the New Patriotic Party’s internal dynamics as the 2026 flagbearer election approaches. With Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia polling at 57%, the data suggests a commanding lead that is bolstered by a near-total sweep of the Northern regions and a robust national campaign structure.

While Kennedy Agyapong retains a strong, competitive base in the Ashanti and Central regions, and Dr. Bryan Acheampong emerges as a rising force, the mathematical reality favors the former Vice President. As the delegates prepare to cast their votes, this poll serves as a definitive snapshot of a race that appears to be moving toward a decisive conclusion. For the NPP, the coming days will determine whether the “Bawumia Factor” translates into the official mandate to lead the party into the 2028 general elections.