Bawumia Again: Why 2028 Will Probably Be a Referendum on Functionality, Not Guarantees

Introduction

Ghana’s political landscape is set for a seismic shift as the New Patriotic Party (NPP) prepares for the 2028 general elections. By re-electing Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as its flagbearer, the NPP has effectively framed the upcoming contest as a referendum on functionality rather than promises. This decision carries profound implications for both the party and the nation’s democratic evolution.

Key Points

Background

The NPP’s decision to nominate Dr. Bawumia again represents a departure from typical post-defeat party behavior. Historically, political parties that suffer significant electoral losses engage in periods of reflection, rebranding, and strategic repositioning. Instead, the NPP has chosen to double down on the leadership configuration that presided over what many consider one of the most criticized governance records in Ghana’s Fourth Republic.

Dr. Bawumia served as Vice President for eight years and chaired the Economic Management Team, placing him at the center of policy implementation during an era marked by economic distress, ballooning debt, rising unemployment, and eroding public trust. His prominent role makes it difficult to position him as a “fresh start” candidate, particularly for voters who experienced the consequences of these policies firsthand.

Analysis

The 2024 Defeat: A Wake-Up Call Ignored

The NPP’s 2024 electoral loss was not a random occurrence or the result of poor messaging. It stemmed from lived experiences of Ghanaians who witnessed economic indicators deteriorate during the Akufo-Addo-Bawumia administration. By 2024, inflation had soared, currency instability had become the norm, fuel prices had skyrocketed, and the cost of living had reached crisis levels that affected virtually every household.

Dr. Bawumia’s continued assertion that the defeat resulted primarily from voter apathy among NPP supporters demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of the electorate’s evolution. This explanation dismisses the reality that many Ghanaians consciously broke party loyalty to vote against the NPP, just as NDC loyalists had done in 2016 when they rejected John Mahama’s first term.

The Comparative Framework of 2028

By selecting Bawumia, the NPP has inadvertently created a straightforward comparative framework for the 2028 elections. Voters will essentially be asked to evaluate:

– Eight years of NPP governance under Nana Addo and Bawumia
– Four years of NDC governance under John Mahama’s second term

This comparison presents significant challenges for the NPP. Unlike in 2016, when the NDC was defending a first-term record still shadowed by power crises and financial strain, Mahama will be presenting a “reset” narrative. The NPP, conversely, will be defending continuity with a record that many Ghanaians found wanting.

Democratic Maturity and Voter Behavior

The 2028 elections will serve as a barometer for Ghana’s democratic maturity. The electorate has demonstrated an increasing willingness to separate leaders from the systems they helped run and to vote based on performance rather than party affiliation. This trend suggests that issue-based, performance-driven voting will become the norm rather than the exception as Ghana’s democracy continues to evolve.

Practical Advice

For political observers and stakeholders, several key considerations emerge:

1. **Monitor Economic Indicators**: Pay close attention to economic performance metrics during Mahama’s second term, as these will form the basis for voter comparison

2. **Track Public Sentiment**: Watch for shifts in public trust and satisfaction with governance, particularly regarding economic management

3. **Assess Policy Implementation**: Evaluate the effectiveness of policies implemented by both administrations, focusing on tangible outcomes rather than rhetoric

4. **Consider Youth Engagement**: Monitor how younger voters, who may have different priorities and expectations, engage with the electoral process

5. **Watch International Relations**: Observe how Ghana’s international partnerships and economic relationships evolve, as these can significantly impact domestic conditions

FAQ

Conclusion

The NPP’s decision to renominate Dr. Bawumia sets the stage for a 2028 election that will be fundamentally different from previous contests. Rather than a choice between competing visions or promises, Ghanaian voters will be asked to render judgment on actual performance. This shift reflects the maturation of Ghana’s democracy and the electorate’s growing sophistication.

The outcome will depend not just on which party runs the better campaign, but on which governance record voters find more satisfactory when measured against their lived experiences. As Ghana approaches this critical electoral moment, the nation’s democratic institutions and political culture will be tested in ways that could define the trajectory of governance for years to come.