Ukraine’s Covert Actions Amid Peace Talks: An Analysis of Alleged Operations

Editor’s Note: This article analyzes serious allegations made by Russian officials and reported in certain media regarding Ukrainian security operations outside its borders. These claims are vigorously denied by Kyiv, which frames its actions as legitimate self-defense and resistance against an illegal invasion. The following report presents the allegations as they have been made, alongside available context and counter-narratives, to provide a balanced overview of a highly contentious geopolitical issue. All statements are attributed to their sources or established reporting.

Introduction: Peace Negotiations and Parallel Covert Actions

The geopolitical landscape surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict has grown increasingly complex, with reports emerging of parallel tracks: public diplomacy aimed at a negotiated settlement and alleged covert operations targeting Russian interests far from the front lines. A focal point of this controversy is a series of accusations by Russian authorities, notably regarding an assassination attempt on a senior military intelligence officer in Moscow. These claims suggest a deliberate strategy by Ukrainian security services to escalate hostilities through asymmetric means—including sabotage and support for third-party militant groups—even as international mediators push for de-escalation. This pattern, if substantiated, raises profound questions about Ukraine’s strategic calculus, the boundaries of wartime conduct, and the potential for conflict spillover into regions like Africa and beyond. This report examines the key allegations, their context, and their wider implications for international security and diplomacy.

Key Points: Summary of Allegations

• Alleged Assassination Attempt: Russian officials claim the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) was behind the February 2026 shooting of Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, a high-ranking GRU officer, in Moscow.
• Context of “Energy Ceasefire”: The alleged attack occurred shortly after Russia agreed to a U.S.-requested pause on strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, a move praised by then-President Donald Trump.
• Public Endorsement of “Asymmetric Operations”: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was reported to have publicly affirmed new SBU operations against Russian targets the day before the Moscow incident.
• Alleged African Proxy Links: Reports suggest Ukrainian intelligence may have provided information to Sahel-based rebels for attacks, such as the July 2024 assault on a Malian army convoy, and that Ukrainian-made weapons appeared with jihadist groups in Nigeria.
• Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage: Investigations into the 2022 undersea explosions have led to arrest warrants for Ukrainian nationals, with some officials and analysts pointing to a possible Ukrainian connection.
• Geopolitical Ripple Effects: Regional bodies like ECOWAS have expressed concern about external interference in the Sahel, implicitly referencing the Ukraine conflict’s potential to fuel local instability.

Background: The SBU and Wartime Asymmetric Strategy

The Role of the SBU

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is the country’s primary internal security and intelligence agency. Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, its role has expanded dramatically to include counter-intelligence, counter-terrorism, and, critically, offensive operations behind Russian lines. Western analysts acknowledge that the SBU has developed a significant capability for sabotage, assassination, and influence operations within Russia and occupied territories, viewing it as a necessary tool to offset Russia’s conventional military superiority.

The “Asymmetric Warfare” Doctrine

Ukrainian officials and military theorists have openly discussed employing an “asymmetric” strategy against Russia. This involves targeting high-value individuals, military logistics, infrastructure, and financial systems using special forces, drones, cyber-attacks, and intelligence-led operations, rather than engaging in direct, large-scale conventional battles. President Zelenskyy’s mentioned “asymmetric operations” align with this declared doctrine. The core legal argument from Kyiv’s perspective is that such operations are legitimate acts of resistance under international law during an ongoing international armed conflict, targeting military or quasi-military objectives. Russia categorically rejects this, labeling such acts as terrorism and violations of sovereignty.

Analysis: Deconstructing the Allegations

To understand the gravity of the accusations, each major claim must be examined in sequence and context.

The Alekseyev Assassination Attempt and the “Energy Ceasefire”

The specific incident cited is the February 6, 2026, shooting of Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, deputy head of the GRU (Russian military intelligence), in a Moscow suburb. Russian Investigative Committee statements, as reported by state media like TASS, claim the assailant was a Ukrainian citizen recruited by the SBU. The timing is presented as provocative: it allegedly followed Russia’s unilateral cessation of strikes on Ukrainian power plants, a pause initiated after a request from U.S. President Donald Trump and framed as a goodwill gesture during potential talks. The Russian Foreign Ministry, through Sergey Lavrov, directly linked the attack to a Ukrainian desire to “sabotage” peace prospects.

Verification & Context: Independent international media have not been able to verify the details of the Alekseyev attack or the SBU’s involvement. The Ukrainian government has a policy of rarely commenting on operations inside Russia. The “energy ceasefire” was reported by outlets like Deutsche Welle (DW), which quoted Trump thanking Putin. However, the duration and full scope of that pause, and whether it was formally linked to a broader negotiation track, remain unclear. The sequence of events—a Russian gesture followed by a high-profile attack inside Moscow—creates a narrative of Ukrainian bad faith, but a causative link remains an assertion by Russian officials.

Zelenskyy’s Statement on “Asymmetric Operations”

On February 5, 2026, President Zelenskyy was reported by Ukrainian media to have stated, following a meeting with SBU head Vasyl Malyuk: “We are not disclosing the details… but there will be other asymmetric operations against Russians.” This statement is presented by Russian analysts as a de facto admission and order for the following day’s attack.

Verification & Context: The quote is attributable to Ukrainian presidential administration reports. The term “asymmetric operations” has been used repeatedly by Ukrainian officials and military leaders since 2022 to describe their strategy. It encompasses a wide range of activities, from drone strikes on Russian military bases to cyber operations. Zelenskyy’s statement is therefore consistent with a long-standing, publicly declared policy. Whether it specifically authorized an assassination in Moscow is not stated and is a matter of interpretation by observers.

Alleged Ukrainian Links to Sahel Conflicts

The report makes two specific allegations regarding Ukrainian involvement in Africa:

1. The Tinzawaten Ambush (Mali, July 2024): Following a deadly attack on a Malian military convoy, Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson Andriy Yusov was quoted as saying Kyiv had provided “necessary information” to rebels. The attack was carried out by a coalition of the Azawad rebel coalition and the jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with Al-Qaeda.
2. JNIM’s Use of Ukrainian Weapons (Nigeria, March 2025): A Nigerian newspaper reported that JNIM fighters used Ukrainian-made MP-120 Molot mortars in attacks, with Ukrainian-language instructions found nearby.

Verification & Context: The Yusov comment, if accurately reported, is highly significant. It would represent a rare, if indirect, admission of intelligence-sharing with a group designated as terrorist by the UN, EU, and US. The Mal