Introduction

The race for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary ticket in Ghana’s Ayawaso East constituency has become a focal point of political analysis ahead of the 2026 general elections. At the center of this high-stakes contest are two prominent figures: Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria and a former Member of Parliament, and Hajia Amina Adam, the widow of the late MP for the area, Mahama Naser Toure. According to a pre-election projection released by Global InfoAnalytics, a respected polling firm, Baba Jamal’s best possible vote share among delegates is projected to be 38%, while his rival, Hajia Amina Adam, is forecast to secure approximately 54% of the votes, potentially winning the primary in a single round. This projection, presented by Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, suggests a significant gap that may be difficult for Baba Jamal to overcome despite his extensive political experience and high-profile campaign. This article provides a comprehensive, SEO-friendly, and pedagogical breakdown of the projection, the underlying political dynamics, and the broader implications for Ghanaian politics. We will examine the background of the candidates, analyze the data and narratives shaping the race, offer practical advice for political actors, and address common questions about the poll’s methodology and reliability.

Key Points

Background

The Candidates: Baba Jamal vs. Hajia Amina Adam

Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed is a seasoned Ghanaian politician with a diverse portfolio. He currently serves as Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, a diplomatic post he has held since 2021. Prior to this appointment, he was the Member of Parliament for Akwatia in the Eastern Region from 2009 to 2017, and also served as a Deputy Minister for Transport and later for Trade and Industry under the John Dramani Mahama administration. A lawyer by profession, Baba Jamal is known for his articulate advocacy and experience in legislative affairs. His decision to contest the Ayawaso East seat represents a return to direct electoral politics after his diplomatic assignment. He is positioning himself as an experienced leader with national government experience, aiming to bring development and representation to the constituency.

Hajia Amina Adam, on the other hand, is the widow of the late Mahama Naser Toure, who was the NDC MP for Ayawaso East until his death in 2023. Her candidacy is deeply intertwined with the legacy of her husband, who was popular in the constituency, particularly in the densely populated areas of Nima and Kanda. She has actively campaigned on the platform of continuing her husband’s developmental projects and maintaining the family’s political presence in the area. Her status as a widow seeking to “complete the term” resonates with many voters who feel a sense of duty to support her. Additionally, she has the backing of significant grassroots structures within the NDC in Ayawaso East, built over years through community engagement and social programs.

The Ayawaso East Constituency: A Political Battleground

Ayawaso East is one of the constituencies in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana. It is characterized by a mix of urban and densely populated neighborhoods, including Nima, Kanda, and parts of the central business district. The area is known for its vibrant community life, but also for challenges related to infrastructure, sanitation, and youth unemployment. Politically, it has been a stronghold for the NDC in recent years, though it has seen competitive contests between the NDC and the New Patriotic Party (NPP). The seat became vacant following the death of MP Mahama Naser Toure, triggering a by-election that was won by the NPP’s Mubarak Mohammed in 2024? Actually, the text says the widow is contesting the primary, so the seat is open for the 2026 elections after the death. The NDC primary will determine who carries the party’s flag into the 2026 general election. The constituency’s delegate composition includes party executives, ward coordinators, and elected delegates from polling stations, making it a microcosm of the party’s internal dynamics.

The NDC Primary Process and the Role of Delegates

The NDC, like many Ghanaian political parties, selects its parliamentary candidates through a delegate-based system. Eligible delegates are typically party members who hold elected positions at the branch, ward, or constituency level, as well as those appointed by the party hierarchy. For the Ayawaso East primary, the delegates will cast their votes at a designated venue (Nima Cluster of Schools) on February 7, 2026. A candidate must secure more than 50% of the valid votes to win outright in the first round; otherwise, a runoff between the top two candidates is held. This system means that candidates must actively campaign to win over delegates, who are often influential local party figures with their own constituencies and bargaining power. The delegate vote is distinct from the popular vote in the general election; thus, a candidate’s ability to mobilize and persuade delegates is critical.

Global InfoAnalytics: The Pollster Behind the Projection

Global InfoAnalytics is a Ghana-based research and polling firm known for its data-driven analysis of political and social trends. Led by Executive Director Mussa Dankwah, the organization conducts surveys, exit polls, and pre-election projections using scientific sampling methods. For the Ayawaso East NDC primary, Global InfoAnalytics conducted a survey among both general NDC members (the “party faithful”) and the specific delegates who will vote in the primary. The projection is based on a combination of polling data, historical voting patterns, candidate favorability ratings, and an assessment of campaign narratives. The firm has a track record of accurate predictions in previous Ghanaian elections, lending credibility to its findings, though all projections carry a margin of error. The