Ex-Ogun Governors Daniel, Amosun Absent as Abiodun, APC Endorse Tinubu for Second Term

A significant political gathering of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ogun State concluded with a formal endorsement of President Bola Tinubu for a second term in office. The event, however, was marked by the conspicuous absence of two former state governors, highlighting ongoing internal party dynamics. The endorsement, led by Governor Dapo Abiodun and former Governor Olusegun Osoba, centered on a robust defense of Tinubu’s controversial economic reform agenda, framing it as a necessary and courageous step toward Nigeria’s long-term stability.

Introduction: A Strategic Endorsement with Notable No-Shows

On a Wednesday in early 2026, the June 12 Cultural Centre in Kuto, Abeokuta, served as the venue for a pivotal meeting of the APC’s Ogun State chapter. The assembly, comprising a cross-section of the party’s heavyweights—including former governors, deputy governors, serving and former senators, National Working Committee members, and ex-commissioners—was explicitly convened to discuss and endorse the re-election of President Bola Tinubu. The most striking feature of this high-profile strategic session was the absence of Senator Gbenga Daniel (who governed from 2003-2011) and former Governor Ibikunle Amosun (2011-2019). Their non-attendance sparked immediate political commentary, underscoring the complex and sometimes fractured nature of APC politics in the southwestern state. The event itself was a clear demonstration of Governor Dapo Abiodun’s control over the state’s party machinery and his alignment with the presidency, setting a tone for the political battles likely to precede the 2027 general election.

Key Points: Summary of the Abeokuta Assembly

• Primary Action: The Ogun State APC leadership and elders formally endorsed President Bola Tinubu for a second four-year term beyond 2027.
• Key Proponents: Governor Dapo Abiodun and former Governor Olusegun Osoba were the principal voices making the case for endorsement.
• Core Argument: The endorsement is predicated on President Tinubu’s “courageous” economic reforms, specifically the removal of the fuel subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange rate, which are credited with preventing economic collapse and setting a course for prosperity.
• Notable Absences: Former governors Gbenga Daniel and Ibikunle Amosun did not attend the meeting, a fact that drew significant attention and speculation.
• Acknowledged Challenge: Both Abiodun and Osoba conceded that the benefits of the macroeconomic reforms have not yet trickled down to ordinary Nigerians at the grassroots level, placing a burden on state governors to mitigate the pain.
• Unity Display: Governor Abiodun highlighted the turnout as evidence of the APC’s strength and unity in Ogun State, despite the high-profile absences.

Background: The Political Landscape in Ogun State

The APC in Ogun: A Coalition of Factions

Ogun State, a critical southwestern battleground, has been an APC stronghold since 2015. However, the party’s internal cohesion has often been tested by the powerful political personalities that have governed the state. The relationship between Governor Dapo Abiodun (in office since 2019) and his predecessors, particularly Ibikunle Amosun, has been publicly fraught at times, with Amosun occasionally criticizing state government policies. Gbenga Daniel, while also a former governor, has had a more nuanced relationship with the current administration. Their collective absence from a meeting explicitly called to endorse the party’s national leader signals either a deliberate protest, a scheduling conflict, or a strategic distancing from the immediate political maneuver. In the context of Nigerian politics, such absences during a major endorsement are rarely accidental and often carry a message about intra-party relations and future ambitions.

The Tinubu Presidency and the Reform Agenda

President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023 amidst a severe economic crisis characterized by record inflation, a dwindling foreign reserve, and an unsustainable fiscal burden from subsidies. His administration’s immediate and most consequential actions were the removal of the decades-old petrol subsidy and the merger of Nigeria’s multiple, distorted foreign exchange rates into a single, market-determined rate. These moves, advocated by international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank, were designed to plug fiscal leaks, attract foreign investment, and restore macroeconomic stability. However, they triggered immediate and harsh short-term consequences: soaring fuel prices, a sharp devaluation of the Naira, and a spike in the cost of living. The political debate since has centered on whether this “short-term pain for long-term gain” strategy is justified and effectively managed.

Analysis: Deconstructing the Endorsement Arguments

The “Courageous Reform” Narrative

Governor Abiodun’s and Osoba’s speeches crafted a powerful narrative around President Tinubu’s leadership. They framed the subsidy removal not as a policy choice but as a moral and strategic imperative that required exceptional bravery. Abiodun’s specific distinction between the “fuel subsidy” (a burden) and the “foreign exchange subsidy” (the “biggest monster”) is a critical rhetorical device. It attempts to elevate the FX unification—a more technical and less immediately tangible reform for the average citizen—as the primary, courageous achievement. By linking the two removals to the date of May 29, 2023, they create a clear “before and after” moment in national economic history. This narrative directly counters criticism that the reforms are IMF-imposed or socially insensitive by re-casting them as an act of national salvation that only a strong, visionary leader could implement.

The Accountability Gap: “Grassroots” vs. “Macro”

Perhaps the most revealing part of the proceedings was the admission by both Abiodun and Osoba that the intended benefits of the reforms—”profitability,” a “better business environment,” and increased government revenue—have not been felt by the “other people on the grassroots.” Osoba’s statement is stark: he appeals to state governors to “please address this problem.” This acknowledges a fundamental flaw in the reform communication strategy: the gap between macroeconomic indicators (which may show improved fiscal space) and microeconomic reality (rising poverty and hardship). It implicitly shifts responsibility for the social fallout from the federal to the state level. This admission weakens the pure “courageous reform” argument by conceding that the policy’s success is incomplete and contingent on sub-national governments’ ability to implement palliative measures and investment in social infrastructure.

The Significance of the Absences

While Governor Abiodun declared the turnout proof of APC unity, the empty chairs of Daniel and Amosun tell a more complex story. Their absence could be interpreted in several ways: 1) A principled disagreement with the timing or strategy of endorsing Tinubu so early, 2) A personal or political rift with Governor Abiodun that prevents shared platforms, 3) A calculated move to distance themselves from the unpopular short-term effects of the reforms as they may have their own national or state-level ambitions, or 4) Simply a scheduling conflict. Given the history of Nigerian politics, the first three are more plausible. Their silence at the event is as loud as the speeches made. It suggests that the Ogun APC, while presenting a united front for the cameras, is still a coalition of distinct power blocs with divergent calculations regarding the 2027 election cycle and their own legacies.

Practical Advice: Understanding and Engaging with Economic Reform Discourse

For the Citizenry: Discernment in Political Messaging

When evaluating claims about economic reforms, citizens should develop a critical framework:

• Separate Macro from Micro: Ask: Are government revenues and reserves improving (macro)? Are food prices, transportation costs, and job availability improving for my household (micro)? Both metrics are essential for a true assessment.
• Track Specific Data: Look beyond political speeches to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on inflation (CPI), unemployment, and GDP growth. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) publishes foreign reserve levels and exchange rate data.
• Identify the Policy Chain: Understand that federal policies (like subsidy removal) require state and local implementation (e.g., targeted cash transfers, road maintenance, local economic development) to alleviate pain. Hold all levels of government accountable.

For Civic Organizations and Media:

Focus reporting and analysis on the concrete outcomes of reforms. Move beyond the “courage vs. hardship” binary to investigate:

• What specific percentage of saved funds is being allocated to social intervention programs?
• How have state governments utilized the increased FAAC allocation (from higher federation account revenue) to mitigate impact?
• What are the timelines promised for the “long-term gain,” and what independent metrics will define success?

FAQ: Addressing Common Questions

Why is the endorsement happening so early (in 2026)?

Endorsing a presidential candidate nearly two years before an election is a strategic move to consolidate party control, discourage potential primary challengers, and signal unwavering loyalty to the national leader. It aims to lock in the party structure and resources behind Tinubu early in the electoral cycle.

Do former governors’ absences mean the APC is divided in Ogun?

It strongly suggests division or, at minimum, a lack of full alignment with Governor Abiodun’s political strategy. In Nigerian politics, major party events are used to showcase strength. The absence of such prominent figures is a deliberate political signal that cannot be ignored. It indicates that the party’s “unity” is managed and contingent, not organic.

What exactly are Tinubu’s “economic reforms”?

The core reforms, initiated in May 2023, are: 1) **Removal of the Petroleum (Fuel) Subsidy:** Ending the government’s payment to keep fuel prices artificially low. 2) **Unification of the Foreign Exchange Rate:** Merging multiple exchange windows into one, allowing the Naira to float more freely and be determined by market forces. Associated policies include increasing the monetary policy rate to combat inflation and attempts at fiscal consolidation.

Is the claim that these reforms “saved Nigeria from collapse” verifiable?

This is a subjective political claim, not a simple fact. Verifiable aspects include: the cessation of billions of dollars in monthly subsidy payments (saving fiscal outlay), the elimination of a gap between official and parallel market exchange rates (reducing arbitrage), and an initial increase in foreign reserve levels. Whether this *prevented an imminent collapse* is a matter of economic interpretation. Critics argue the reforms accelerated inflation and hardship, potentially causing social instability. Proponents argue the pre-reform path was fiscally untenable and would have led to a worse crisis. Both sides use the same data to support opposing narratives.

What can state governors do to address grassroots impact?

According to Osoba’s appeal, governors can use increased federal allocations to: 1) Scale up direct cash transfer programs for the poorest. 2) Invest in mass transportation systems to reduce the cost of movement. 3) Partner with agro-allied industries to boost local food production and reduce prices. 4) Improve healthcare and education funding at the state level to reduce household burdens. The effectiveness of these measures varies by state based on governance capacity and fiscal prudence.

Conclusion: The Endorsement as a Political Baseline

The APC’s endorsement of President Tinubu in Ogun State serves as a crucial baseline for measuring political loyalties heading into the 2027 elections. It solidifies Governor Abiodun’s position as a key ally of the presidency and frames the economic debate on the federal government’s terms: courage versus hardship, long-term gain versus short-term pain. However, the conspicuous absences of former governors Daniel and Amosun are a potent reminder that this unity is not absolute. The central, unresolved tension—acknowledged even by the endorsers—is the disconnect between macroeconomic stability and grassroots welfare. The success or failure of Tinubu’s reform agenda, and by extension the political fortunes of his allies like Abiodun, will ultimately be judged not by the courage of the decisions made in 2023, but by the tangible improvement in the economic conditions of the average Nigerian by 2027. The Abeokuta assembly was a confident assertion of the first part of that equation; the second part remains an open, and politically perilous, question.