Osun Pensioners Vow to Forestall Aregbesola’s Return: The Unpaid Arrears Crisis and Political Fallout

A coalition of retired public servants in Osun State, Nigeria, has issued a stark warning: they will mobilize to prevent former Governor Rauf Aregbesola from returning to power through the African Democratic Congress (ADC). This vow follows a peaceful protest in Osogbo highlighting the state government’s alleged failure to clear decades of pension arrears—a crisis that has left thousands of retirees in financial limbo. The development underscores the deepening intersection of pension rights, political accountability, and public finance in one of Nigeria’s most populous states.

Introduction: A Cry from the Retirees

The streets of Osogbo, the capital of Osun State, recently witnessed a powerful demonstration not of youthful vigor, but of aged frustration. Members of the 2011/2012 Retired Public Servants Association of Osun State took to the Osogbo-Gbongan highway, their placards bearing messages of neglect and resolve. At the heart of their protest is a dual grievance: the persistent non-payment of pension arrears accumulated over years and the looming political prospect of the administration they hold responsible for that debt attempting a comeback. This article dissects the pension crisis in Osun State, the political dimensions of the retirees’ threat, and what it means for governance, worker rights, and the state’s economic future.

Key Points: The Core of the Pensioners’ Stand

• Political Mobilization: Pensioners are organizing to block former Governor Rauf Aregbesola‘s alleged plan to return to power via the African Democratic Congress (ADC), blaming his 2010-2018 tenure for the worst pension crises.
• Unpaid Arrears Persist: Despite N8.2 billion in payments by the current Governor Ademola Adeleke administration in 2024, retirees from the Contributory Pension Scheme (2017-2025 batches) remain largely unpaid, with no definitive payment timeline.
• Historical Blame: The association directly links the current debt burden to the Aregbesola administration’s economic policies and alleged mismanagement of state resources.
• Call for Accountability: They urge Governor Adeleke to prioritize their clearance and appeal to national and international “lovers of humanities” to pressure the government.
• Systemic Issue: The crisis highlights the chronic challenge of pension administration in Nigerian states, where contributory and traditional systems often collide with political will and fiscal capacity.

Background: Understanding Nigeria’s Pension Landscape and Osun’s Crisis

To grasp the magnitude of this protest, one must understand the Nigerian pension ecosystem and Osun State’s specific history.

The Contributory Pension Scheme: A Legal Framework Under Strain

Enacted in 2004 and reformed under the Pension Reform Act (PRA) of 2014, Nigeria’s Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) is a mandatory, fully-funded, defined-contribution system. Both employer (state government) and employee contribute monthly to a Retirement Savings Account (RSA) managed by licensed Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs). Upon retirement, the retiree accesses a lump sum (from RSA) and a programmed monthly annuity or life annuity. The law aims to prevent the old “pay-as-you-go” system’s pitfalls—unfunded liabilities and arbitrary payment delays.

However, implementation at the sub-national (state) level has been uneven. Many states, including Osun, struggled with consistent remittances even before the current crisis. The “bond beneficiaries” referenced by the protesters are retirees from the CPS who, due to non-remittance by their employer (the state), did not have sufficient funds in their RSAs at retirement. They are thus “unbonded”—their entitlements remain a debt owed by the government, not an accessible personal savings.

Osun State: A Decade of Pension Turmoil

Osun State’s pension crisis is not new but has evolved:

• Pre-2010: Legacy arrears from the traditional defined-benefit system existed.
• Aregbesola Era (2010-2018): While some payments were made, critics and retirees allege that the administration accumulated significant new arrears for both old and new scheme retirees, exacerbated by alleged economic policies that strained state finances. The protesters’ claim of “evil perpetrated” points to this period as the root of their current hardship.
• Transition to Adeleke (2022-Present): Governor Ademola Adeleke, elected in 2022, inherited a massive pension debt. His administration has made several payments, including N4.9 billion (around April/May 2024) and N3.3 billion (November 2024). However, retirees argue these are insufficient and lack a transparent, comprehensive clearance plan.

Analysis: Deconstructing the Claims and Political Stakes

The Pensioners’ Grievances: Verifiable Facts vs. Political Rhetoric

The retirees’ statements contain both factual assertions and political interpretations that require examination.

• Fact: Unbonded Retirees Exist. The spokesperson, Awodele Olusola, specifically names categories: Primary School retirees (2017-2025), Local Government retirees (2023-2025), and Secondary School/Civil/Tertiary retirees (2020-2025). This aligns with known issues where states fail to remit employer contributions for cohorts after the CPS take-off.
• Fact: Payments Made, Debt Remains. The N8.2 billion cited is verifiable from state government announcements. However, the total outstanding debt for all categories (old and new scheme) is estimated by various groups to be in the tens of billions of naira. The state’s claim that entitlements are “cleared totally” is directly contradicted by the protesters and the clear backlog of unbonded accounts.
• Interpretation: “Economic Havoc” and “Doom”. The claim that Aregbesola “caused more havoc to the Economy of the State” is a political assessment. Economists might analyze his administration’s projects (like the Osun State Infrastructure Development Project) and borrowing profile to debate this. However, for pensioners, the tangible outcome—unpaid entitlements—is the ultimate metric of havoc.

The Political Threat: Can Pensioners Stop a Comeback?

The vow to “forestall” Aregbesola’s return is significant for several reasons:

• Voter Bloc: While retirees may not be the largest voting demographic, their families and sympathizers amplify their voice. In a state with a history of closely contested elections, organized opposition from a group with a clear, emotive grievance is a potent political force.
• ADC as a Vehicle: The African Democratic Congress is a recognized party. If Aregbesola indeed seeks a return (he has not officially declared), it would likely be under a party platform different from the All Progressives Congress (APC) he previously belonged to. The pensioners are targeting that potential vehicle.
• Narrative Warfare: This is an attempt to frame the 2026 (or next) gubernatorial election around the single issue of pension accountability. It forces all candidates to address the debt and forces Aregbesola (or his proxy) to defend his record on worker welfare.
• Limitations: The retirees’ power is primarily as a pressure group, not a party machine. Their success depends on sustaining media attention, building wider coalitions with labor unions and civil society, and convincing the general electorate that the pension issue is paramount.

The Adeleke Administration’s Dilemma

Governor Adeleke finds himself in a precarious position:

• Fiscal Constraints: Osun State, like many Nigerian states, depends on federal allocations and internally generated revenue (IGR). The drop in oil prices and national economic pressures limit available funds. Clearing a N40 billion+ pension debt (a common estimate) requires massive budgetary reallocation or borrowing.
• Competing Priorities: The governor must also fund salaries, infrastructure, health, and education. Prioritizing pensioners is a moral and legal imperative under the PRA, but it is a tough political choice against other demands.
• Political Capital: Commending Adeleke, as the protesters do, is a tactical move to maintain pressure without alienating the current administration. Their appeal to him to “prioritize” is a recognition that he holds the payment keys.

Practical Advice: For Stakeholders and the Concerned Public

This crisis demands action from multiple quarters.

For the Pensioners’ Association

• Documentation & Transparency: Maintain and publish a clear, verifiable ledger of the total debt, broken down by cohort, year of retirement, and amount paid. This strengthens moral authority and aids advocacy.
• Coalition Building: Formalize alliances with active labor unions (like the Nigeria Labour Congress, Osun State Council), civil society organizations (CSOs), and professional bodies. A united front is harder to ignore.
• Legal Pathways: Explore all legal options. The Pension Reform Act mandates employers to remit contributions. Seeking enforcement orders from the National Industrial Court or the Federal High Court could compel the state government.
• Engage with Pension Regulators: Lobby the National Pension Commission (PenCom) to intensify its supervisory and enforcement role over state governments, using its powers to impose sanctions for non-compliance.

For the Osun State Government

• Publish a Clear Payment Bond: Issue a detailed, phased payment schedule with specific quarterly targets for each cohort (2017-2025, pre-2017 arrears, etc.). Transparency builds trust.
• Explore Innovative Financing: Consider options like specific bond issuances backed by future federal allocations or IGR, dedicated solely to pension clearance. This demonstrates commitment.
• Audit the Historical Debt: Commission an independent forensic audit of the total pension liability inherited from the Aregbesola administration. A definitive figure is the first step to a solution.
• Dialogue, Not Dismissal: Engage the association in structured, regular meetings. Acknowledging their plight is not an admission of guilt but a step toward resolution.

For the General Public and Media

• Sustain Attention: Keep the issue in the news. Investigative reports on how the debt accumulated and where previous funds went are crucial.
• Humanize the Story: Report the individual stories of retirees—the teacher, the local government clerk—whose lives are destroyed by unpaid pensions. This creates empathy and political pressure.
• Fact-Check Claims: Scrutinize claims from both the government and the association. Verify payment figures, audit reports, and political promises.

FAQ: Addressing Common Questions

What is the difference between “old scheme” and “contributory” pensioners in Osun?

Old Scheme (Defined Benefit): Retirees from before the 2004/2014 reforms. Their pension is a defined monthly amount based on final salary and years of service. The state pays directly from its budget. Arrears here are often from years of non-payment.
Contributory Scheme (Defined Contribution): Retirees from 2004/2014 onward. Both state and employee contributed to an RSA. The “unbonded” issue occurs when the state failed to remit its share, leaving the RSA balance insufficient at retirement. The government then owes the shortfall as arrears.

Is it legal for a state government to withhold pension contributions?

No. The Pension Reform Act 2014 makes it a legal duty for employers (including state governments) to remit both employee and employer contributions to the Pension Fund Administrator within 7 days of salary payment. Failure is a punishable offense. Retirees can sue for enforcement.

How much does Osun State actually owe in pension arrears?

There is no single official figure. The state government has not released a comprehensive, audited liability report. Estimates from pensioner associations and analysts range from N30 billion to over N70 billion, encompassing both old scheme arrears and unbonded CPS shortfalls for cohorts from 2010 onward. The N8.2 billion paid in 2024 is a fraction of this.

Can a pensioner’s threat really influence an election?

Yes, but indirectly. No single group decides an election. However, pensioners are a sympathetic, organized bloc. Their narrative can shape voter perception of a candidate’s record on welfare and fiscal responsibility. If the pension issue becomes the dominant campaign theme, it can sway undecided voters and energize opposition parties. Their threat is to become an active, disruptive force in the political landscape if their concerns are ignored.

What is the “ADC” mentioned in the article?

The African Democratic Congress