Ghana’s Gold Output Reaches Record 6 Million Ounces in 2025, But 2026 Faces Major Risks

Ghana, Africa’s top gold producer, has achieved a historic milestone, with preliminary data confirming that its gold output hit a record 6 million ounces in 2025. This achievement, announced by the Ghana Chamber of Mines, underscores a period of significant growth driven by a surge in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) and stable large-scale production. However, this success is juxtaposed with a critical warning: ambitious projections for 2026 output of 6.5 million ounces are now in serious jeopardy due to the government’s planned overhaul of the mineral royalty regime. This article provides a comprehensive, SEO-optimized analysis of the factors behind the 2025 record, the mechanics of the proposed royalty reform, its potential economic and employment consequences, and practical implications for stakeholders in the global gold supply chain.

Introduction: A Record Tempered by Regulatory Uncertainty

The narrative of Ghana’s mining sector in 2025 is one of remarkable achievement shadowed by considerable future uncertainty. For the first time, the nation’s gold production has breached the 6-million-ounce barrier, a feat attributed to a combination of favorable market conditions, successful policy reforms in the ASM sector, and the ramp-up of new large-scale projects. This performance solidifies Ghana’s position as a cornerstone of the African gold mining industry. Yet, the celebration is muted by an impending policy shift—the transition from a fixed 5% royalty to a sliding-scale rate of 5% to 12% tied to gold prices. Industry leaders, including Chamber of Mines CEO Kenneth Ashigbey, caution that this increase will disproportionately impact future mine expansions and new projects, directly threatening the projected growth for 2026 and beyond. The central question becomes: Can Ghana balance its urgent need for increased resource revenue with the imperative to maintain a competitive investment climate for gold mining?

Key Points: Summary of Ghana’s 2025 Gold Performance and 2026 Outlook

• Record Output Achieved: Ghana’s total gold production reached a provisional record of 6 million ounces in 2025.
• Dual-Sector Growth: The record was driven by a surge in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) production to ~3.1 million ounces and stable large-scale mine output of 2.9 million ounces.
• Large-Scale Dynamics: New project ramp-ups at Shandong Mining’s Cardinal Namdini and Newmont’s Ahafo North offset production declines from grade depletion at older mines like Gold Fields’ Damang.
• ASM Formalization Success: Reforms, including a government gold-buying program, successfully diverted more artisanal gold into formal channels and reduced smuggling, stabilizing ASM supply.
• 2026 at Risk: The Chamber of Mines projects 2025 output will be nearly flat but warns that 2026’s targeted 6.5 million ounces is endangered by the proposed sliding-scale royalty increase.
• Royalty Reform Details: The new regime would replace the fixed 5% rate with a scale of 5-12% linked to gold prices, potentially taking effect imminently.
• Project-Specific Threats: Analysis indicates the reform could render key expansion projects, like AngloGold Ashanti’s Obuasi mine and Perseus Mining’s Edikan pit expansion, economically unviable, jeopardizing over 1,300 jobs and $800 million in future government revenue.

Background: Ghana’s Position in the Global Gold Landscape

Historical Context and Sector Structure

Ghana has been a major gold producer for over a century, but its modern mining sector took shape after the 1980s economic reforms that attracted significant foreign direct investment. The industry is characterized by a dual structure: a capital-intensive, large-scale mining (LSM) sector dominated by multinational corporations like Newmont, Gold Fields, and AngloGold Ashanti; and a vast, labor-intensive artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector that employs an estimated 1 million people directly. Historically, the LSM sector contributed the bulk of official exports, while the ASM sector operated largely informally, with significant volumes smuggled out of the country.

The 2025 Record in Context: Price and Policy Synergy

The record 6-million-ounce output in 2025 did not occur in a vacuum. It was facilitated by two primary, interlinked factors:

1. Surging Gold Prices: Bullion prices reached record highs in 2024-2025, significantly increasing the revenue per ounce for all producers. This made marginal operations more profitable and incentivized higher production.
2. Domestic ASM Reforms: The Ghanaian government, through the Precious Minerals Marketing Company (PMMC), implemented a structured gold-buying program. This provided a formal, transparent, and competitive channel for artisanal miners to sell their gold, offering better prices and security compared to informal buyers. This policy successfully brought a substantial portion of the ASM sector into the official statistics, directly accounting for the dramatic rise in reported production from ~2 million ounces in previous years to 3.1 million ounces in 2025. The reduction in smuggling also meant more gold was available for domestic refining and export, boosting official figures.

Analysis: The Sliding-Scale Royalty Reform and Its Projected Impacts

The core of the current industry anxiety centers on the proposed Minerals and Mining (Amendment) Bill, 2025, which seeks to overhaul the royalty structure. Understanding the mechanics and modeled impacts of this reform is critical to assessing the threats to Ghana’s future gold output.

The Mechanics of the Proposed Sliding-Scale Royalty

Under the current law, mining companies pay a fixed 5% royalty on gross revenue from mineral sales, regardless of profitability or commodity price. The proposed system would create a tiered scale:

• When the average annual gold price is below $1,800 per ounce, the royalty rate remains at 5%.
• For every $100 increase in the average annual gold price above $1,800, the royalty rate increases by 1 percentage point, up to a maximum of 12% when prices exceed $2,400 per ounce.

This model is designed to allow the government to capture a greater share of “windfall” profits during commodity price booms—a common policy trend among resource-rich developing nations. However, mining companies argue it fundamentally alters project economics, especially for lower-grade deposits or operations at the margin.

Economic and Project-Level Consequences

The Ghana Chamber of Mines commissioned analysis, seen by Reuters, quantifies the potential damage. The reform’s impact is not linear; it disproportionately affects projects where the net revenue after all costs (operating, capital, taxes) is already tight.

• AngloGold Ashanti’s Obuasi Mine: A key deep-level mine in Ghana. The analysis shows that at a gold price of $2,044/oz (a realistic price point), lifting the effective royalty from 5% to 7% under the new scale would reduce the mine’s net present value (NPV) by 8%. This reduction could push the project’s NPV below the company’s investment hurdle rate, potentially leading to premature closure or drastically reduced investment in sustaining the operation.
• Perseus Mining’s Edikan Expansion: The company’s planned $170 million investment to expand the pit at its Edikan mine becomes “uneconomic” under the new regime. This project alone represents significant future production and employment.
• Cumulative Impact: The Obuasi and Edikan projects combined account for approximately 1,344 direct jobs and represent a future stream of over $800 million in royalties and taxes to the Ghanaian government. Their jeopardy illustrates a classic policy paradox: an attempt to increase future revenue may instead eliminate high-value future revenue streams and jobs.

Other companies mentioned as vulnerable include Adamus Resources and Asante Gold. The common thread is that these are not new greenfield projects but expansions and life-of-mine extensions of existing operations, which form the backbone of the projected 2026 production increase.

Why New and Expansion Projects Are Most Vulnerable

Ashgibey’s statement, “The royalty increase will hit new projects straight away — those supposed to lift next year’s production,” highlights a crucial distinction. Existing, cash-flow-positive large-scale mines may absorb the higher royalty through cost management or during periods of high gold prices. However, new projects and mine expansions are evaluated on long-term financial models based on decades of production. These models are highly sensitive to changes in the effective tax take. A higher royalty rate:

• Squeezes project cash flow, reducing funds available for capital reinvestment.
• Forces companies to process only the highest-grade ore first, potentially shortening the overall mine life.
• Increases the internal rate of return (IRR) required to proceed, making fewer projects “bankable.”

The result is a chilling effect on the investment pipeline. The stable 2.9 million ounces from large-scale mines in 2025 is a result of decisions made years ago under the old regime. The 2026 growth target relies on projects approved under that same regime, which are now under threat.

Practical Advice: Navigating the Changing Landscape

For different stakeholders in the gold sector, the path forward requires strategic recalibration.

For Mining Companies and Investors

• Engage in Constructive Dialogue: Continue to present detailed, project-specific economic models to the Ghanaian government, demonstrating how the proposed scale could lead to net revenue loss through project cancellations. Propose alternative structures, such as a higher fixed rate (e.g., 7%) that provides revenue certainty without the extreme volatility of a sliding scale.
• Re-evaluate Capital Allocation: Delay final investment decisions on Ghana-based expansions until the regulatory framework is certain. Prioritize projects in jurisdictions with more stable fiscal terms.
• Advocate for Phased Implementation: Lobby for “grandfathering” clauses that protect projects with approved bankable feasibility studies or those already in construction from the new rates for a defined period.

For the Government of Ghana

• Conduct a Full Impact Assessment: Commission an independent, comprehensive study on the long-term fiscal impact of the sliding scale, modeling not just immediate revenue gains but the potential loss of future production, employment, and downstream industry development (refining, manufacturing).
• Consider Revenue Stability: A fixed, moderately higher royalty (e.g., 6-7%) provides predictable government revenue, which is easier to budget with than a variable rate that fluctuates with global commodity prices.
• Balance Capture and Competitiveness: The goal should be to optimize the “take” over the full lifecycle of a mine, not maximize it at the front end. A slightly lower rate on a thriving, expanding sector may yield more total revenue over time than a higher rate that stifles growth.

For Artisanal and Small-Scale Miners (ASM)

• Consolidate Gains from Formalization: The success of the gold-buying program is a major achievement. ASM cooperatives should work to strengthen their organizational structures, improve safety and environmental practices, and access formal financing to increase productivity and legitimacy.
• Monitor Policy Spillover: While the royalty increase targets large-scale mines, any resulting economic slowdown or job losses in mining regions could affect ASM communities through reduced local demand and services. Diversifying income sources is prudent.