Ghana Fuel Prices Set to Surge: Cedi Slide & Global Market Pressure Explained

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Ghanaian motorists and businesses should brace for a direct and immediate increase in fuel prices starting Monday, February 16, 2026. The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) has announced that ex-pump prices for petrol, diesel, and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) are projected to rise by up to 3.26%. This adjustment is the result of a potent combination of a weakening Ghanaian Cedi against the US Dollar and a firming of international petroleum benchmarks over the recent pricing window.

According to COPEC’s analysis of market data, the second fuel pricing window of February 2026 will likely see petrol prices climb by approximately 1.97%, diesel by 2.73%, and LPG by a sharper 3.26%. These projections underscore the vulnerability of local fuel costs to volatile external economic and geopolitical factors, directly impacting transportation costs and the general cost of living.

This report provides a detailed, pedagogical breakdown of the situation, moving beyond the headline numbers to explain the mechanisms at play, offer historical context, analyze the contributing factors, and provide actionable advice for consumers and businesses navigating this period of rising energy costs.

Key Points: The February 2026 Fuel Price Adjustment

• Effective Date: Price changes take effect from Monday, February 16, 2026.
• Projected Increases: Petrol (+1.97%), Diesel (+2.73%), LPG (+3.26%).
• Primary Drivers: A depreciating Ghanaian Cedi (loss of ~GH¢1 against the USD) and rising international oil benchmarks (4-6% increase for petrol and diesel).
• Mitigating Factors: Competition among Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and existing stock levels may moderate the final increase, potentially keeping it within a 2-3% band instead of the full 3-6% pass-through.
• Market Sentiment: Bulk fuel distributors were already adjusting purchase prices upward before the official window close, signaling a firm market expectation of higher costs.

Background: How Fuel Prices Are Determined in Ghana

The Petroleum Pricing Formula and the 15-Day Window

To understand the impending surge, one must first grasp Ghana’s fuel pricing mechanism. The country employs a “ex-pump price” system, where the price at the pump is calculated based on a formula reviewed every fortnight (15 days). This formula, overseen by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA), is designed to reflect the actual cost of importing refined petroleum products.

The key components of this formula are:

1. International Benchmark Price: The cost of crude oil and refined products (petrol, diesel) on the global market, typically based on benchmarks like Brent Crude or specific refined product quotes from the Platts platform. This is the largest variable.
2. Exchange Rate (Cedi/USD): Since Ghana imports all its refined petroleum, the value of the Cedi against the US Dollar is critical. A weaker Cedi means more Cedis are needed to buy the same amount of dollars to pay for imports, directly increasing the local currency cost.
3. Importation Costs & Margins: This includes shipping, insurance, port charges, and the margins for Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and distributors.
4. Taxes & Levies: Government-imposed taxes like the Energy Sector Recovery Levy, Road Fund Levy, and others are fixed components added to the cost.

The NPA calculates a new “Maximum Ex-Pump Price” for each product at the end of each window. OMCs are allowed to sell at or below this ceiling. The February 2026 adjustment is a result of the calculations for the window ending February 15, 2026.

The Role of COPEC and Market Monitoring

The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) is a non-governmental advocacy group that independently monitors the petroleum sector. It analyzes the same data (international prices, forex rates) used by the NPA and OMCs to forecast pricing outcomes. Its executive secretary, Duncan Amoah, frequently provides public commentary to explain the “why” behind price movements, making complex market dynamics accessible to the average Ghanaian. Their forecasts are widely cited by media and are considered a reliable barometer for consumer expectations.

Analysis: Deconstructing the Dual Pressure on Prices

The projected February increase is not caused by a single event but by the confluence of two major, persistent trends: a softening local currency and firming global oil markets. Understanding each factor’s contribution is essential.

Factor 1: The Depreciating Ghanaian Cedi

Over the two-week period under review, the Ghanaian Cedi weakened significantly against the US Dollar, losing approximately GH¢1 in value. This depreciation is a critical transmission mechanism for imported inflation. For example:

• If a barrel of imported diesel cost $100 two weeks ago, and the exchange rate was GH¢10/$, the Cedi cost was GH¢1,000.
• If the same barrel now costs $104 (a 4% international rise) and the Cedi has weakened to GH¢11/$, the new Cedi cost is GH¢1,144.
• The combined effect is a 14.4% increase in local currency terms (from 1,000 to 1,144), far exceeding the individual percentage increases.

Ghana’s Cedi has faced sustained pressure from various sources, including trade deficits, debt service obligations, and global risk aversion towards emerging market currencies. This makes the fuel sector acutely sensitive to forex fluctuations.

Factor 2: Rising International Petroleum Benchmarks

Global oil markets have been volatile, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions in key producing regions, and global economic demand forecasts. According to COPEC’s Duncan Amoah, over the past fortnight:

• International petrol benchmarks rose by about 4%.
• International diesel benchmarks rose by about 5%.
• International LPG benchmarks rose by about 6%.

These increases are passed through almost directly into the import parity price that forms the base of Ghana’s ex-pump calculation. The sharper rise for LPG explains its higher projected local increase of 3.26%.

The Combined Effect and Market Moderation

Mathematically, the combined effect of a 4-6% international rise and a ~10% Cedi depreciation (GH¢1 on a base of ~GH¢10 is ~10%) would suggest a potential price hike far exceeding 3%. However, as Amoah noted, the final adjustment is moderated by two key local dynamics:

1. OMC Competition: Ghana’s fuel market has numerous players. Intense competition can lead some OMCs to absorb a portion of the cost increase temporarily to retain market share, or to implement smaller, staggered hikes.
2. Stock Position: OMCs that purchased fuel at lower prices in the previous window will have inventory. They can sell from this stock for a few days before fully passing on the new higher costs, creating a lag and potentially a less severe single-day jump.

Thus, while the economic fundamentals dictate a significant upward adjustment, the observable market outcome may be a slightly more contained 2-3% average increase in the immediate term. The phrase “the market will not be able to hold without adjusting upwards” confirms the inevitability of the rise.

Practical Advice for Consumers and Businesses

Facing a near-certain fuel price increase, stakeholders can adopt strategies to mitigate the financial impact.

For Motorists and Households:

• Plan Refuelring: If your vehicle is near empty, consider refueling before the February 16 deadline to lock in the current price for that tank. However, avoid hoarding large quantities in unsafe containers.
• Optimize Driving Habits: Practice fuel-efficient driving: gentle acceleration, maintaining steady speeds, avoiding excessive idling, and ensuring proper tire inflation. These can improve fuel economy by 10-20%.
• Review Commutes: Consider carpooling, using public transport, cycling, or walking for shorter trips to reduce overall fuel consumption.
• Vehicle Maintenance: Ensure regular engine servicing, clean air filters, and use the correct motor oil. A well-maintained engine runs more efficiently.
• Monitor Price Comparisons: Use apps or websites (like FuelGhana or MyFuel) that track real-time pump prices across different OMCs in your area. Prices can vary by a few pesewas per liter.

For Businesses and Transport Operators:

• Review Logistics & Routing: Optimize delivery routes to minimize mileage. Consolidate shipments where possible.
• Adjust Pricing/Contracts: If your business model is heavily dependent on transport, review customer contracts to see if fuel adjustment clauses exist. For new contracts, consider including such mechanisms.
• Explore Fleet Efficiency: For larger fleets, consider a gradual shift to more fuel-efficient models or, where viable, electric or hybrid vehicles for short-haul duties.
• Budget Re-forecasting: Immediately incorporate the higher fuel cost projections into operational budgets for Q1 and Q2 of 2026.

For LPG Users:

• The projected 3.26% increase for LPG is the highest among the three fuels. Users who rely on LPG for cooking should anticipate a sharper rise in cylinder refill costs.
• Consider energy-efficient cooking practices: using pressure cookers, lids on pots, and matching pot size to burner size.
• Explore the feasibility of using electric induction cookers as a medium-term alternative, depending on your electricity tariff and usage patterns.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Will the government intervene with subsidies to cushion the impact?

As of the publication of this article, there has been no official announcement from the Ministry of Finance or the NPA regarding a reintroduction of fuel subsidies. Ghana’s recent economic program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been centered on fiscal consolidation and removing costly, inefficient subsidies. A sudden return to broad-based subsidies is considered unlikely in the current fiscal environment. Any targeted social intervention would be announced separately by the government.

How often do fuel prices change in Ghana?

Under the current system, the NPA reviews and announces new maximum ex-pump prices every 15 days (bi-weekly). This window allows for the reflection of changes in the international market and the forex rate. However, prices can remain stable across multiple windows if the underlying costs do not change significantly.

What is the difference between “ex-pump price” and the price I pay at the station?

The “ex-pump price” is the price set by the NPA that excludes the dealer’s (station’s) margin. The final price you pay includes this margin, which covers the station’s operating costs and profit. The NPA’s ceiling is for the ex-pump price; stations add their margin on top. Competition usually keeps the final pump price very close to the ex-pump ceiling.

Is this price increase unique to Ghana?

No. Fuel prices are rising globally due to similar pressures. Many countries are experiencing higher pump prices due to post-pandemic demand recovery, OPEC+ production cuts, and geopolitical uncertainty. However, Ghana’s experience is amplified by its specific challenge of a rapidly depreciating local currency, which exacerbates the impact of international price rises.

Where can I find the official, updated fuel prices?

The authoritative source is the National Petroleum Authority (NPA). The NPA publishes the official “Maximum Ex-Pump Prices” on its website and through official communiqués after each pricing window. Reputable news outlets and COPEC also promptly report these changes.

Conclusion: Navigating a Period of Elevated Energy Costs

The imminent fuel price adjustment in Ghana is a textbook case of how a developing economy with a freely floating currency and heavy reliance on imported commodities absorbs external shocks. The ~3% average increase, while moderated by local market competition, is a direct and unavoidable pass-through of the twin forces of a weakening Cedi and firmer global oil benchmarks.

For the average Ghanaian, this translates immediately to higher costs for commuting, goods transportation (affecting prices of food and commodities), and household energy (LPG). There is no short-term fix within the existing pricing framework. The long-term solution lies in macroeconomic stability—strengthening the Cedi through robust export growth, fiscal discipline, and increased foreign exchange inflows—and in structural shifts towards energy diversification and efficiency.

In the interim, awareness and proactive adaptation are the best tools. Consumers must adjust budgets and behaviors, while businesses must strategically manage their logistics and cost structures. Monitoring COPEC’s analyses and official NPA bulletins will remain crucial for staying informed