Political Arrests & Party Unity: Decoding Afenyo-Markin’s NPP Rally Message

In a pivotal address to the New Patriotic Party (NPP) following the election of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as flagbearer, Minority Leader Alexander Afenyo-Markin delivered a stark and strategic message. He explicitly advised party members not to fear potential arrest or political harassment under a future National Democratic Congress (NDC) government, framing such an event not as a personal or political failure but as an inevitable—and even expected—tactic of a desperate opposition. This speech, given at a thanksgiving service, serves as both a morale booster for a party in opposition and a preemptive narrative control strategy for future political contests. This analysis unpacks the full context, implications, and strategic intent behind the statement: “It’s not a sin to be arrested as a politician.”

Introduction: The rallying cry in context

On February 15, 2026, the NPP convened a significant thanksgiving service to celebrate Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s elevation as the party’s flagbearer for the next presidential election, anticipated in 2028. The event, attended by party executives, parliamentary caucus members, and grassroots supporters, was designed to foster unity and renew commitment after a period of internal contestation. It was against this backdrop of consolidating around a new standard-bearer that Alexander Afenyo-Markin, the respected Minority Leader in Parliament and a key party strategist, issued his warning and rallying call. His central thesis was direct: the NPP must steel itself for a period of intense political pressure, including the possibility of legal arrests targeting its members, and must collectively resolve to view such actions as badges of political engagement rather than sources of shame or division. This message crystallizes the NPP’s current posture as an opposition party preparing for a long haul back to power, anticipating a confrontational political landscape.

Key Points: What Afenyo-Markin actually said

The core of Afenyo-Markin’s address can be distilled into several critical, actionable points for the NPP base:

Normalizing Political Arrest as a Tactic

Afenyo-Markin explicitly stated, “Please, if you are a politician and you are being caught, it is not a sin.” He urged members to dismiss any stigma associated with arrest, repositioning it as a standard tool in the political playbook of an incumbent government feeling threatened. This is a deliberate attempt to defang a powerful psychological weapon.

Warning of Systematic Intimidation

He warned that “they will try and divide us. They will come with all manner of arrest.” The pronoun “they” clearly references the incumbent NDC government. He suggested these actions are not random but a calculated strategy to fracture party cohesion by targeting individuals and instilling fear.

Urging Unwavering Unity Behind Bawumia

The antidote to this predicted intimidation is absolute solidarity. His directive was clear: “Let’s stand firm behind Dr Bawumia and win power in 2028.” He linked individual resilience directly to collective loyalty to the flagbearer’s vision.

Framing the 2028 Goal as Paramount

The speech consistently pivoted to the 2028 elections as the ultimate objective. All current challenges, including potential legal battles, are to be contextualized within this long-term struggle to “return to power.” This frames the present opposition period as a temporary, strategic phase.

Background: Ghana’s political landscape and the NPP’s position

To fully grasp Afenyo-Markin’s message, one must understand the current political dynamics in Ghana.

The 2024 Election Outcome and its Aftermath

The NPP, having been in power since 2017 (following the 2016 victory of President Nana Akufo-Addo), lost the December 2024 presidential election to the NDC’s candidate. Consequently, the NPP transitioned from the governing party to the official opposition. This shift inherently changes its operational environment, exposing it to a different set of political pressures and legal scrutiny typically faced by opposition entities.

Historical Precedents of Political Polarization

Ghana’s Fourth Republic has been characterized by a fiercely competitive two-party system between the NPP and NDC. Periods of transition are often marked by heightened tensions, accusations of political persecution, and high-profile legal cases involving figures from the outgoing administration. There is a historical narrative, often cited by both parties when in opposition, of the winning side using state institutions—particularly law enforcement and the judiciary—to harass and weaken the other. Afenyo-Markin’s speech directly taps into this historical narrative, positioning the NPP as the anticipated victim in the current cycle.

The Significance of the Thanksgiving Service

The choice of a thanksgiving service as the venue is symbolically important. It frames the political contest in quasi-spiritual terms, appealing to a sense of divine providence and collective gratitude. It’s a unifying, positive event, making the subsequent stark warning about arrests all the more impactful—it signals that even in a moment of celebration, the party must be vigilant and prepared for struggle.

Analysis: Deconstructing the strategy and implications

Afenyo-Markin’s speech is a masterclass in opposition political strategy, blending morale management, narrative preemption, and internal cohesion building.

Narrative Preemption and Desensitization

The primary strategic goal is to control the narrative *before* any potential arrests occur. By declaring “it is not a sin,” the NPP leadership is attempting to rob the act of arrest of its intended power to shame, isolate, and demoralize. They are inoculating their base against a psychological tactic they expect to face. This is a form of political risk communication, preparing supporters for a probable event and defining its meaning on their own terms.

Strengthening the “Persecuted but United” Identity

The speech reinforces a powerful opposition identity: a unified party standing together against a common, overreaching adversary. This “siege mentality” can be a potent force for internal cohesion, suppressing internal dissent by focusing energy outward. It casts any legal troubles not as consequences of individual misconduct but as collective suffering for the party’s cause.

The Direct Link to Dr. Bawumia’s Leadership

By insistently tying resilience to support for Bawumia, Afenyo-Markin is also strengthening the flagbearer’s authority. He is defining loyalty to the party in the 2028 cycle as synonymous with loyalty to Bawumia. This helps consolidate the flagbearer’s position early in the opposition term, minimizing potential leadership challenges or factionalism.

Legal and Constitutional Realities

While the speech frames arrests as purely political harassment, it operates within a complex legal framework. In Ghana, no one is above the law, and investigations leading to arrest can be initiated for alleged criminal offenses, regardless of political status. The legal implication is that the NPP must ensure its members, if targeted, have robust legal defense and that the party publicly distinguishes between politically motivated arrests and legitimate law enforcement. Afenyo-Markin’s statement implicitly argues that *all* arrests in this context will be politically motivated, a claim that must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. The speech does not advocate for lawlessness but for a mindset shift regarding the social perception of arrest.

Media and Public Perception Warfare

The message is also aimed at the media and the general public. It attempts to frame any future prosecution of NPP figures through a specific lens: that of a government using the justice system as a political weapon. This seeks to influence public opinion and potentially international perception, painting the NDC administration as authoritarian if such arrests materialize.

Practical Advice: For politicians and supporters

Translating this rallying cry into practical, actionable steps is crucial for the NPP’s resilience.

For Politicians and Party Officials

• Legal Preparedness: Maintain access to competent legal counsel. Understand rights during arrest and detention. Party structures should establish a legal defense fund specifically for cases deemed politically motivated.
• Documentation and Transparency: Meticulously document interactions with state officials, especially law enforcement. Transparency in financial dealings and official conduct is the best defense against legitimate accusations that could be used to justify a politically tinged arrest.
• Disciplinary Unity: Resist public infighting. Any perceived disloyalty or criticism of the flagbearer during this period can be exploited by opponents to validate claims of a divided party. Internal disagreements should be resolved through party channels, not public forums.
• Strategic Communication: Have a pre-agreed protocol for responding to the arrest of a member. Immediate statements should reinforce the party’s narrative of political persecution while cautiously avoiding comments that could prejudice ongoing legal processes.

For Supporters and Grassroots

• Vigilance without Panic: Be aware of the political environment but do not spread unverified rumors or panic. Share information only from official party channels.
• Solidarity Actions: Organize peaceful, lawful shows of support for any member facing legal action, such as court solidarity, but strictly within the bounds of the law to avoid providing pretexts for further action.
• Focus on the 2028 Agenda: Channel energy into local organizing, voter registration drives, and policy development. The best response to intimidation is demonstrated, unwavering commitment to the electoral goal.
• Digital Resilience: Be prepared for coordinated online disinformation campaigns that may follow any arrest. Verify information before sharing and use official hashtags and messaging to control the digital narrative.

FAQ: Addressing common questions

Is it truly “not a sin” to be arrested, or is this just political rhetoric?

In a legal and moral sense, an arrest is a procedural act, not an automatic declaration of guilt. The rhetorical power of Afenyo-Markin’s statement lies in its attempt to divorce the social stigma of arrest from the political act of opposition. He is arguing that in a polarized system, arrest can be a tool of political warfare, and therefore, being subjected to it should not be seen as a personal moral failing by party members or the public. Practically, however, any arrest will have legal consequences that must be addressed in court, separate from this political narrative.

What specific laws or actions could lead to the arrests Afenyo-Markin predicts?

He did not specify, which is strategic. Historically, in Ghana and similar democracies, opposition figures have faced investigations or arrests related to: alleged corruption in past government contracts, public order offenses during protests, defamation cases, or charges related to financial misconduct. The prediction is broad to encompass any legal mechanism that could be employed.

How does this stance differ from the NDC’s position when they were in opposition?

Does this speech admit to past wrongdoing by NPP members?

Not directly. It does not confess to past crimes. Instead, it preemptively argues that *future* legal actions will be politically motivated, regardless of any underlying technicalities. It shifts the focus from “Did they do it?” to “Why are they being targeted now?” This is a classic opposition tactic to frame the narrative around political persecution rather than substantive legal defense.

What is the likely public reaction to this message?

The reaction will be highly partisan. NPP loyalists will likely find it a galvanizing and realistic assessment, reinforcing their commitment. Floating voters or those weary of political conflict may see it as an admission of expected misconduct or as fostering a culture of victimhood. The NDC and its supporters will almost certainly condemn it as an attempt to justify potential criminality and prepare a defense for corrupt officials.

Conclusion: A speech for the long political road

Alexander Afenyo-Markin’s address at the NPP thanksgiving service is far more than a simple rallying cry. It is a sophisticated piece of political communication designed to fortify a party for the rigors of opposition. By declaring “it is not a sin to be arrested,” he is attempting to neutralize a key weapon of political warfare—the power of shame and fear. He is building a collective identity rooted in resilience, framing the journey to 2028 as a struggle where legal harassment is a probable, even expected, milestone. The success of this strategy depends on unwavering party discipline, impeccable legal preparedness, and the ability to convince the Ghanaian public that any legal troubles befalling NPP figures are part of a pattern of political persecution rather than a consequence of individual actions. This speech sets the tone for the NPP’s opposition strategy: united, defiant, and singularly focused on the prize of the 2028 elections. It is a clear signal that the party anticipates a bitter and bruising political contest and is preparing its ranks for the fight.