Champions League 2024/25: Dissecting Alan Pardew’s Claim That Only Liverpool Can Win the UCL

In a landscape of soaring ambitions and multi-front campaigns, former manager Alan Pardew has thrown a controversial gauntlet into the ring of UEFA Champions League discourse. Following Arsenal’s emphatic 4-0 FA Cup victory over Wigan Athletic, Pardew reiterated his bold assertion: Arsenal cannot win the Champions League this season. His singular prediction? That Liverpool are the sole English—and perhaps European—force capable of lifting the trophy in May. This analysis unpacks Pardew’s rationale, examines the factual context of both clubs’ seasons, and provides a balanced, data-driven perspective on the Champions League title race.

Key Points: The Core of Pardew’s Argument

• Pardew’s Stance: Alan Pardew maintains his belief that Liverpool are the only team with the requisite mentality and player motivation to win the UEFA Champions League this season, explicitly dismissing Arsenal’s chances.
• Arsenal’s Four-Front Challenge: Mikel Arteta’s side remains in contention for four trophies (Premier League, FA Cup, Carabao Cup, Champions League), a feat that demands immense squad depth and focus.
• Liverpool’s Group Stage Dominance: Liverpool topped their Champions League group with a record of 7 wins and 1 loss, showcasing consistent high performance.
• Motivation Factor: Pardew cites the personal “resume” boosting and contract incentives for Liverpool’s key players as a unique driver for Champions League success.
• Recent Form Contrast: The analysis follows Arsenal’s gritty league draw with Brentford and their subsequent FA Cup win, while Liverpool progressed smoothly from their UCL group.

Background: The Context of Two Seasons

Arsenal’s Ambitious Quadruple Quest

Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal is experiencing one of its most successful modern seasons. Sitting atop the Premier League table, they have also navigated the early stages of the FA Cup (reaching the 5th round after beating Wigan) and the Carabao Cup. Their Champions League campaign was a masterclass in consistency; they won all eight of their group stage matches, a remarkable feat that earned them a seeded position in the round of 16 draw. They await opponents from a pool including Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, Atalanta, and Olympiacos. However, this pursuit of a historic quadruple places unprecedented physical and mental demands on the first-team squad. Recent injury concerns, including knocks to Riccardo Calafiori, Ben White, and doubts surrounding Martin Ødegaard, have already begun to test the team’s depth—a critical factor in a long European campaign.

Liverpool’s Seamless European Return

Re-establishing themselves as a European powerhouse under Arne Slot, Liverpool’s return to the Champions League has been characterized by ruthless efficiency. Their group stage performance—7 wins, 1 loss—was arguably the most impressive in the competition. They secured top spot, granting them a theoretically more favorable round of 16 draw against one of Atlético Madrid, Club Brugge, Galatasaray, or Juventus. Domestically, they are also in strong contention in the Premier League, maintaining the relentless high-pressing style that has become their trademark. The squad, while not without its own injury concerns, possesses a seasoned core with extensive experience in the latter stages of the UCL.

Alan Pardew: The Pundit and His History

Alan Pardew, a former player and manager with Premier League credentials at clubs like Newcastle United and Crystal Palace, now serves as a media pundit. His commentary is often direct and rooted in his perception of team psychology and player motivation. His specific claim about Liverpool’s unique drive stems from his view that winning the Champions League is a paramount career goal for several of Liverpool’s star players, influencing contract negotiations and legacy-building in a way he feels is less acute at Arsenal. It’s crucial to note his prediction was made on talkSPORT, a platform where provocative takes are part of the discourse.

Analysis: Deconstructing the “Only One Team” Thesis

The Liverpool Case: Experience, Hunger, and a Clear Focus

Pardew’s argument for Liverpool has several pillars:

• Proven Champions League Pedigree: Key players like Virgil van Dijk, Mohamed Salah, and Alisson have won the trophy (2019) and reached multiple finals. This experience demystifies the latter stages.
• Collective Psychological Edge: The club’s recent history in Europe creates an aura of inevitability in tight knockout ties. They are accustomed to winning on the road in big European stadiums.
• Managerial Stability & Style: Arne Slot has implemented a clear, aggressive, and adaptable tactical system that translates effectively to the unique pressures of the Champions League knockout phase.
• Perceived Singular Focus: Pardew suggests Liverpool’s players have the Champions League as a primary personal objective, which fuels a relentless drive. The narrative of “more than a club” in Europe is a powerful motivator.

Statistically, their group stage performance supports a claim of being the competition’s most in-form side over those six matches.

The Arsenal Counter-Argument: Talent, Trajectory, and the Arteta Factor

To dismiss Arsenal entirely ignores compelling counterpoints:

• Unprecedented Group Stage Record: Winning all eight group games is a stunning achievement that demonstrates supreme quality and mental fortitude. It is not a fluke but a statement.
• Peak of a Project: This is Arteta’s team, built meticulously over four years. They are playing with a tactical sophistication and confidence that suggests they are peaking at the right moment.
• Youthful Energy & Tactical Flexibility: Players like Bukayo Saka, Martinelli, and a potential returning Ødegaard offer a dynamism that can unlock tight knockout games. Arteta has shown tactical adaptability in big matches.
• The “Four-Front” Double-Edged Sword: While Pardew cites it as a weakness (squad fatigue), others argue that a team winning consistently across all fronts is in a superior rhythm and confidence cycle compared to a team managing rotation. Their league lead is a cushion that could allow for strategic rest.

The primary, verifiable weakness is squad depth. A major injury crisis in February/March could derail their campaign, a risk less pronounced for Liverpool’s more experienced squad.

The Verdict: Is Pardew’s Claim Verifiable or Provocative?

Pardew’s statement—”just one workforce can win trophy this season”—is an unverifiable prediction, not a statement of fact. It is a provocative opinion based on his subjective assessment of team psychology. The Champions League is a knockout tournament where luck, specific matchups, and in-game moments often decide outcomes as much as overall quality. Historically, multiple teams from the same league have reached the semi-finals (e.g., England in 2008, Spain in 2017). To state definitively that only one club in Europe can win is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the competition. A more accurate, evidence-based claim would be: “Liverpool are currently the strongest and most psychologically equipped contender for the Champions League title.” The distinction is critical.

Practical Advice for Fans and Followers

For the Neutral Spectator

Focus on the tactical narratives. Watch how Arsenal’s high-risk, high-reward press holds up against elite European opposition over two legs. Observe Liverpool’s transition game and set-piece efficiency. The round of 16 draw will be pivotal—certain opponents (e.g., a physical Italian side) might suit Liverpool’s proven style, while others might expose Arsenal’s defensive vulnerabilities more starkly.

For Arsenal Supporters

Advocate for strategic squad rotation. The path to a quadruple requires Arteta to manage minutes for key players like Saka, Ødegaard, and Rice without sacrificing results in the Premier League. The upcoming FA Cup 5th round tie presents an opportunity to rotate. Monitor injury reports closely. Trust in the project’s trajectory; the Champions League is a new frontier for this core, and their perfect group stage is a massive confidence boost.

For Liverpool Supporters

Embrace the experience but demand consistency. The team’s greatest asset is its collective know-how in the Champions League. Avoid complacency in the league that might allow rivals to gain ground. The focus on Europe is clear, but maintaining a top-two Premier League position provides a crucial safety net and home advantage in later rounds.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Has Alan Pardew ever managed either Arsenal or Liverpool?

No. Alan Pardew has never managed Arsenal or Liverpool. His managerial career includes West Ham United, Charlton Athletic, Southampton, Newcastle United, and Crystal Palace. His analysis is purely as a pundit, based on his observations of the current squads and his understanding of elite football psychology.

When is the Champions League Round of 16 draw?

The Champions League round of 16 draw typically takes place in late February or early March, following the completion of the group stage. For the 2024/25 season, the draw is scheduled for February 21, 2025. Arsenal and Liverpool will discover their opponents then.

What are the legal or financial implications of winning the Champions League?

Winning the Champions League carries significant financial rewards. The UEFA prize money for the winner is substantial (over €100 million in total distributions, including market pool and progress bonuses). It also guarantees qualification for the following season’s competition and entry into the UEFA Super Cup. There are no specific “legal” implications beyond standard sporting regulations and financial fair play considerations related to the increased revenue.

Can a team win the quadruple (Premier League, FA Cup, Carabao Cup, Champions League) in modern football?

It is exceptionally rare due to the physical and fixture congestion demands. No English men’s team has ever won a quadruple. Manchester City came closest in 2018/19, winning a domestic treble (Premier League, FA Cup, Carabao Cup) but losing in the Champions League quarter-finals. Arsenal’s attempt this season would be historic if successful, but the Champions League is the most challenging trophy to secure within that run.

Is Liverpool’s squad deeper than Arsenal’s?

Based on current injury lists and transfer activity, many analysts believe Liverpool’s squad has greater depth and experience in key positions, particularly in central defense and central midfield. Arsenal’s starting XI is arguably world-class, but their bench options in defensive roles have been tested by recent injuries. This is a key tactical point in Pardew’s favor regarding sustaining a four-front challenge.

Conclusion: The Value of Provocation vs. The Reality of the Competition

Alan Pardew’s declaration that “Arsenal cannot win” the Champions League is a classic pundit’s soundbite—designed to provoke debate, simplify a complex picture, and highlight his favored narrative. It is not a forecast grounded in immutable truth. The Champions League is a competition where the best team over a six-game group stage does not always win the two-legged knockout ties that follow. Arsenal’s perfect group record is a monumental achievement that commands respect, not dismissal.

However, Pardew correctly identifies a critical battlefield: mental fortitude and singular focus. Liverpool’s recent European history imbues them with a specific type of confidence that is hard to quantify but easy to see in their performances. Arsenal is writing a new chapter in its European story. Their journey will be defined by how they handle the unique pressures of the Champions League knockout stage, a arena where they have less recent pedigree than their rivals.

The most accurate takeaway is that Liverpool enters the knockout phase as the most proven and psychologically prepared contender. But to state that Arsenal cannot win is to underestimate the power of a team playing with fearless belief at the peak of its powers. The round of 16 draw in February will set the stage for the next act in this compelling Champions League story.

Sources and Verifiable Data

• UEFA.com: Official Champions League 2024/25 Group Stage Tables and Results.
• Premier League Official Website: Current Premier League standings and fixture lists.
• talkSPORT: Archive of Alan Pardew’s commentary from early February 2025.
• BBC Sport, The Athletic, and Sky Sports: Match reports for Arsenal vs. Wigan (FA Cup), Brentford vs. Arsenal (Premier League), and Liverpool’s final group stage fixtures.
• Transfermarkt: Current squad depth charts and injury reports for Arsenal FC and Liverpool FC (as of February 2025).
• UEFA Financial Regulations: Public documentation on prize money distribution for the Champions League.