Can Dr. Bawumia Win Ghana’s 2028 Presidency? A Strategic Analysis

In a bold assertion that has sparked national political discourse, former Majority Leader in Parliament, Osei Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu, has stated that former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia possesses the potential to secure the New Patriotic Party (NPP) nomination and ultimately win the Ghanaian presidency in the 2028 elections. This analysis delves into the validity of this claim, examining historical precedents of political comebacks in Ghana, the critical benchmarks voters will use, and the strategic landscape Bawumia would navigate.

Introduction: The Case for a Political Comeback

The statement by Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu, a seasoned political strategist and long-time NPP figure, reframes the current political narrative. It shifts focus from the immediate 2024 election cycle to a longer-term projection, positioning Dr. Bawumia—who served as Vice President from 2017 to 2024—as a viable future standard-bearer. His confidence is not based on speculation but on a deep understanding of Ghana’s electoral history, which shows that political fortunes can dramatically reverse within a single term. This introduction explores the core of his argument: that electoral defeat is not terminal and that a candidate’s attributes, when measured against specific national needs, can forge a victorious path years later.

Key Points: Deconstructing the Argument

Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s commentary provides a framework for evaluating any future presidential candidate, particularly Dr. Bawumia. The key pillars of his argument are:

Historical Precedent: Ghana’s political history includes examples of leaders who lost power and later reclaimed it, most notably President John Dramani Mahama.
Three Constitutional Benchmarks: The 2028 election will be judged on: 1) deepening liberties and rule of law, 2) creating equal opportunities, and 3) managing the economy for national prosperity.
Comparative Evaluation: Voters will perform an “asset test” comparing Bawumia’s vision, competence, experience, track record, ingenuity, humility, and integrity against the candidate presented by the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Head Start Advantage: Despite a crowded field of potential NPP contenders, Bawumia’s national profile and prior executive experience give him a perceived advantage.

Background: Ghana’s Pattern of Political Resilience

The Mahama Precedent: Defeat and Return

Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s primary historical analogy is President John Mahama. In the 2016 election, Mahama, as the incumbent president, suffered a decisive loss to Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, conceding defeat by a margin of over one million votes. This was a significant personal and political setback. However, the NDC, under his leadership, successfully regrouped and won the 2020 election, returning him to the presidency. This demonstrates that in Ghana’s Fourth Republic, a major electoral loss does not preclude a future return to the highest office, provided the party and candidate can reconnect with the electorate’s evolving mood.

The Kufuor Model: Consolidating Power

The second example cited is former President John Agyekum Kufuor. After winning the presidency in 2000, Kufuor was re-elected in 2004 with a then-record 58.4% of the vote (often rounded to 59%). This illustrates a different but equally relevant path: the successful incumbent who leverages a first-term record to secure a decisive second mandate. For a candidate like Bawumia, this model suggests that a future campaign could focus on defending and extending the policy legacy of the Akufo-Addo-Bawumia administration, depending on the political and economic context of 2027-2028.

Analysis: The 2028 Electoral Equation

Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu posits that the 2028 election will be a referendum on specific constitutional ideals and a direct comparison of personal and policy credentials. This analysis breaks down those components.

The Three Pillars: Liberty, Equality, and Prosperity

The “three constitutional benchmarks” he outlines align closely with the preambular values of Ghana’s 1992 Constitution:

Deepening Liberties & Rule of Law: This speaks to civil liberties, judicial independence, freedom of the press, and institutional integrity. Voters will assess the state of democratic norms during the intervening administration(s).
Equal Opportunities: This encompasses social justice, access to quality education and healthcare, regional development equity, and youth empowerment. It addresses perceptions of exclusion or favoritism.
Economic Management & Prosperity: This is often the paramount concern. It involves macroeconomic stability (inflation, debt, currency strength), job creation, business environment, and tangible improvements in living standards. The management of Ghana’s recurring debt challenges and inflation will be central to this evaluation.

The “Asset Test”: Comparing Candidate Profiles

The heart of Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s thesis is a multi-dimensional comparison. Voters, he suggests, will weigh Bawumia’s profile against the NDC’s flagbearer on a scale including:

Vision: The clarity and feasibility of a national development plan.
Competence & Experience: Bawumia’s decade as Vice President and prior role as Deputy Finance Minister is a key asset. His academic background in economics is often highlighted.
Track Record: This is contentious. Supporters point to digitalization initiatives (e.g., Ghana.Gov, mobile money interoperability) and economic management during his tenure. Critics will point to the economic downturn post-2022 and rising public debt.
Ingenuity & Problem-Solving: Perception of ability to navigate complex crises, such as the recent IMF program negotiation.
Humility & Integrity: These are highly valued in Ghanaian political culture. His personal demeanor and perceived transparency will be scrutinized against his opponent’s.

He explicitly states this test will be applied to “Bawumia vis-à-vis whoever the NDC would be presenting,” making it a direct head-to-head contest framed by the intervening administration’s performance.

The “Head Start” Advantage

Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu acknowledges other potential NPP candidates but maintains Bawumia has a “head start.” This advantage stems from:

National Name Recognition: As a two-term Vice President, he is a known quantity nationwide.
Established Political Network: Years within the party machinery and government.
Defined Policy Persona: He is closely associated with specific policy areas (digital economy, economic management), for better or worse.
Incumbency Proxy Status: If the NPP retains power in 2024, he becomes the natural successor. If it loses, he could position himself as the experienced alternative to a new NDC administration, using his VP tenure as a benchmark.

Practical Advice: What a 2028 Bawumia Campaign Must Do

If Dr. Bawumia were to pursue the presidency in 2028, the strategic lessons from Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s analysis suggest a clear roadmap. This advice is derived from the benchmarks and comparison criteria outlined.

1. Master the Narrative on the Economy

Economic performance will be the single largest determinant. A campaign must:

Own and transparently explain the economic challenges of 2022-2024, framing them within global contexts (COVID-19, Ukraine war) while demonstrating concrete lessons learned and policy adjustments made.
Develop a credible, detailed, and differentiated economic plan for the next term that addresses debt sustainability, inflation, and job creation with specific, measurable targets.
Highlight tangible successes from the VP tenure (e.g., digital infrastructure, financial inclusion) as foundations for future growth.

2. Reconcile with the “Akufo-Addo Legacy”

His political identity is inextricably linked to the current administration. The strategy must:

Defend the administration’s core achievements (e.g., Free SHS, 1D1F, infrastructure) while acknowledging areas where public sentiment may have soured (e.g., cost of living, perceived corruption).
Clearly articulate what a “Bawumia presidency” would do differently or better, establishing an independent vision rather than being perceived as a third term for Akufo-Addo.
Engage constructively with critics within his own party and the public to show adaptability and listening skills.

3. Proactively Define Character and Humility

The “humility and integrity” benchmark requires active cultivation:

Maintain a campaign tone that is respectful, policy-focused, and avoids the divisive rhetoric that has marred past elections.
Demonstrate consistency between public statements and private conduct. Any perception of elitism or disconnect must be countered with visible engagement with ordinary Ghanaians and their daily struggles.
Be prepared for intense scrutiny of personal and family financial dealings, with full transparency to preempt attacks.

4. Build a Unifying, Forward-Looking Vision

The “equal opportunities” and “liberties” benchmarks demand a message that transcends ethnic and regional bases:

Articulate a clear plan for national cohesion, addressing regional disparities through infrastructure and investment maps.
Present concrete proposals for youth and women’s empowerment that go beyond traditional slogans.
Strengthen democratic institutions as a core part of the platform, committing to judicial independence, anti-corruption bodies, and press freedom.

FAQ: Addressing Common Questions

Q1: Is it constitutionally possible for Bawumia to run in 2028?

A: Yes. The 1992 Constitution of Ghana (Article 62) sets the presidential eligibility criteria: a candidate must be a citizen by birth, at least 40 years old, and a registered voter. There is no bar on a former Vice President running. He would be serving his second term as VP in 2024, but the Constitution does not limit total time in executive office, only consecutive presidential terms (two max). He would be eligible to run for one term as President.

Q2: Has any Ghanaian president ever lost an election and then won a subsequent one?

A: Yes. The clearest example is John Dramani Mahama. He lost the 2016 presidential election as the incumbent. He remained leader of the NDC and successfully contested the 2020 election, winning and returning to the presidency. This validates the “comeback” narrative referenced by Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu.

Q3: What are the biggest obstacles to a Bawumia victory in 2028?

A: Key obstacles include: 1) Economic Headwinds: If the economy remains weak or volatile through 2027, the incumbent party (NPP) will be blamed, making any candidate’s path harder. 2) Anti-Incumbency Sentiment: After eight years of NPP rule (if they win 2024), a strong desire for change could benefit the NDC. 3) Internal Party Competition: He must first win the NPP primaries, where other powerful figures will challenge him. 4) Polarized Perception: He is a highly polarizing figure; strong support exists alongside significant opposition based on economic perceptions and party affiliation. 5) The “Change” Narrative: The NDC will frame the election as a need for new leadership after two terms of NPP governance.

Q4: How does the 2024 election result impact the 2028 projections?

A: It is everything. If the NPP wins in 2024, Bawumia becomes an immediate front-runner for 2028 as the Vice President seeking to succeed his boss, but he will have to defend the second-term record. If the NPP loses in 2024, Bawumia’s path becomes that of a prominent opposition leader from the former administration. He would need to convincingly distance himself from any perceived failures of the 2017-2024 period while arguing his experience makes him the best alternative to the new NDC government. The state of the economy under the 2025-2028 administration will be the ultimate deciding factor.

Q5: What does “deepening the liberties of Ghanaians” mean in practical terms?

A: This refers to tangible actions that strengthen democratic rights and freedoms. Practical implications include: protecting press freedom from intimidation or legal harassment, ensuring the Electoral Commission operates with complete independence and transparency, reforming laws that restrict assembly or speech, strengthening anti-corruption institutions like the Commission on Human Rights and Administrative Justice (CHRAJ) and the Office of the Special Prosecutor, and promoting civic education. Voters will assess which candidate best guarantees these liberties against perceived erosion.

Conclusion: A Possible, But Not Guaranteed, Path

Osei Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s assertion that Dr. Bawumia can “leap again” to the presidency is a defensible political analysis grounded in Ghana’s electoral history, not mere wishful thinking. The Mahama comeback proves electoral defeat is not fatal. The framework of three constitutional benchmarks and a multi-factor “asset test” provides a realistic lens through which the 2028 election will be viewed.

However