Mahama Government Impact Assessment: One Year In Office – A Critical Review

One year into the administration of President John Dramani Mahama, a stark political and economic assessment has been delivered by the opposition. Alexander Afenyo-Markin, the Minority Leader in Ghana’s Parliament, has publicly asserted that the government has failed to produce any tangible impact or real results for the Ghanaian populace after twelve months in office. This critique, framed around the disconnect between macroeconomic statistics and daily lived experience, cuts to the heart of governance accountability. This article provides a comprehensive, SEO-optimized analysis of these claims, exploring the key arguments, the necessary economic and political background, and offering practical frameworks for citizens to evaluate governmental performance.

Introduction: The Core Critique of Governance

The central thesis put forward by Afenyo-Markin, a leading figure from the New Patriotic Party (NPP), is a fundamental rejection of the government’s self-assessment. He contends that despite potential positive signals in national economic aggregates, the administration has not delivered concrete outcomes that improve the material conditions of ordinary Ghanaians. His criticism specifically targets the perceived lack of progress on major infrastructure scaling, the unresolved issue of payments to contractors—a critical sector for employment and economic activity—and an overreliance on abstract “paper growth” metrics. This introduction sets the stage for a deeper examination of what “impact” means in governance, the evidence (or lack thereof) presented, and the broader implications for political trust and economic policy in Ghana.

Key Points of Afenyo-Markin’s Criticism

The Minority Leader’s remarks, made in an interview on Channel One TV on February 16, 2026, can be distilled into several core, interconnected arguments against the government’s first-year performance:

• Absence of Tangible Projects: A direct challenge to the government to identify significant scaling or completion of major infrastructure and developmental projects within its first year.
• Contractor Payment Crisis: Highlighting the severe consequences of unpaid bills owed by the state to contractors, who often rely on bank loans to finance public works, thus creating a ripple effect of economic distress and non-performing loans in the financial sector.
• Macro vs. Micro Disconnect: A rejection of celebrating high-level economic indicators (like GDP growth or inflation moderation) if these numbers do not translate into improved livelihoods, particularly for vulnerable groups like cocoa farmers and small-scale traders.
• Statistical emptiness: The argument that data and statistics are meaningless without a demonstrable positive impact on citizens’ daily lives, framing the government’s narrative as potentially disconnected from reality.
• Call for Verifiable Results: An explicit statement that the opposition is prepared to acknowledge genuine successes but finds, after one year, a void of such real impact.

These points collectively paint a picture of an administration failing on the ground, despite any theoretical economic management.

Background: Political and Economic Context

The 2024 Election and Return of the NDC

To understand this critique, one must recall the December 2024 general election, which returned the National Democratic Congress (NDC) to power, with John Dramani Mahama—who previously served as President from 2012 to 2017—becoming President again. The NDC’s campaign likely centered on promises of economic revival, job creation, and a “better Ghana” narrative, contrasting with the incumbent NPP government’s record. The first-year assessment is a standard, yet critical, milestone in the political cycle, where the government’s initial policy implementations and their effects become visible.

Ghana’s Recent Economic Journey

Ghana’s economy has weathered significant storms in recent years, including a post-COVID recovery, high inflation peaking in 2022-2023, and a debt restructuring process under an IMF program. The Mahama administration inherited this complex scenario. Proponents might argue that stabilizing macroeconomies (taming inflation, securing IMF deals) takes time to filter down. Critics, like Afenyo-Markin, argue that the social and sectoral pain during this stabilization period is the true measure of impact. The cocoa sector, a major foreign exchange earner and livelihood for millions, is a frequent barometer for rural economic health.

The Contractor Payment Conundrum

The issue of government arrears to contractors is a perennial and debilitating challenge in Ghana’s public financial management. It represents a breakdown in the procurement and payment chain. When contractors (often SMEs) are not paid for completed public works (roads, schools, hospitals), they cannot repay bank loans, leading to financial sector stress, job losses, and stalled projects. This issue is not merely a financial nuisance; it is a direct indicator of fiscal discipline and the government’s ability to honor its contractual obligations, which in turn affects employment and private sector confidence.

Analysis: Deconstructing the “Impact” Argument

Afenyo-Markin’s statement is a powerful political soundbite, but its validity requires unpacking the concept of “impact” and examining available evidence across several domains.

1. The Infrastructure and Project Implementation Lens

The demand for “primary scaling tasks” refers to the initiation, expansion, or completion of major capital projects. Assessing this requires looking at the 2025 budget allocations and their execution rates. Key sectors include roads (especially feeder and urban roads), healthcare (hospital completions), education (school infrastructure), and energy. One-year timelines are often too short for large infrastructure, but the budget execution rate, groundbreaking ceremonies for key projects, and the clearance of project backlog can be early indicators. A lack of visible, new project starts or significant completions would lend credence to the criticism.

2. The Contractor Payment Chain: A Systemic Failure?

This is arguably the most data-rich and verifiable part of the critique. Evidence can be sourced from:

• Bank of Ghana Reports: Which may highlight trends in non-performing loans (NPLs) in the construction and commercial sectors.
• Controller and Accountant General’s Department: Data on the value of outstanding statutory payments and arrears.
• Ghana Audit Service Reports: Which often comment on persistent arrears and their implications.
• Media Investigations: Business journals and news outlets frequently report on contractor agitations and specific projects stalled due to non-payment.

If data shows a growing stock of arrears or high NPLs linked to government contracts, it directly supports the claim of negative economic impact beyond the state’s immediate finances.

3. Macroeconomic Statistics vs. Microeconomic Reality

This is the classic debate in development economics. Key macroeconomic indicators for Ghana in 2025 might include:

• GDP Growth Rate: Official figures may show a return to positive growth (e.g., 3-4%).
• Inflation: A decline from peak levels to within the Bank of Ghana’s target range (e.g., 8-10%).
• Fiscal Deficit: A narrowing deficit under the IMF program.
• Debt-to-GDP: Stabilization after the restructuring.

However, the translation to the micro level is not automatic. The analysis must ask: Has this led to lower food prices? Has the cocoa farmer received a better farmgate price? Has unemployment, especially among youth, decreased? Are small businesses accessing credit more easily? If the answer is “no” or “not yet,” the criticism holds weight. The gap between headline growth and inclusive growth is the core of the argument.

4. The “Paper Growth” Phenomenon

“Paper growth” refers to economic expansion that benefits a narrow segment (e.g., through financial sector gains, large corporate profits, or government statistical adjustments) but does not create widespread employment or raise average incomes. In Ghana’s context, this could manifest as:

• Growth driven by commodity exports (gold, cocoa) without corresponding value addition or rural development.
• Improved fiscal metrics due to expenditure cuts ( arrears accumulation) rather than revenue growth or efficient spending.
• Urban-centric growth leaving rural agricultural communities, like cocoa farmers, behind.

Proving or disproving this requires disaggregated data on sectoral contributions to GDP, employment statistics, and household income surveys.

Practical Advice: How Citizens Can Evaluate Government Impact

Beyond political rhetoric, citizens need tools for independent assessment. Here is a practical framework:

Track Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Monitor simple, tangible metrics:

• Roads: Count the number of kilometers of urban/feeder roads completed or under active construction in your district compared to a year ago.
• Schools & Clinics: Note the completion status of projects started by the previous administration and any new ones initiated.
• Contractor Activity: Are major construction sites active or idle? Talk to local contractors about payment delays.
• Market Prices: Track the prices of staple foods (maize, rice, tomatoes) and key inputs (fertilizer, fuel).
• Cocoa Sector: Follow the official cocoa farmgate price set by COCOBOD and reports on the distribution of fertilizers and spraying services.

Utilize Official Data Sources

Citizens and journalists should refer to:

• Ghana Statistical Service (GSS): For quarterly GDP, inflation (CPI), and labor force reports.
• Bank of Ghana (BoG): For monetary policy reports, financial sector stability reports, and payments system data.
• Ministry of Finance: For budget execution reports and statements on arrears.
• Parliamentary Hansard: To see questions asked by MPs like Afenyo-Markin and the government’s official responses.

Cross-referencing these sources helps separate political claims from documented evidence.

Engage in Community Scorecards

Civil society organizations often conduct “community scorecard” exercises where communities rate the performance of local government services (health, education, water, sanitation). Participating in or reviewing such local-level assessments provides ground-truth data on service delivery impact.

FAQ: Addressing Common Questions

Q1: Is it fair to judge a government after only one year?

A: It is both fair and necessary. The first year is when initial policies are implemented, budgets are executed, and the administration’s capacity and priorities become visible. While some deep-seated problems require longer, a complete absence of any visible, citizen-focused project or the worsening of a known crisis like contractor arrears within 12 months is a legitimate subject of critique. The government also uses its first-year anniversary to tout successes, so scrutiny is reciprocal.

Q2: What about positive macroeconomic indicators? Don’t they matter?

A: They matter immensely for long-term stability and investor confidence. Low inflation and fiscal discipline create a foundation for growth. However, as Afenyo-Markin argues, they are necessary but not sufficient conditions for development impact. A government must be held accountable for ensuring that this macroeconomic stability actively fuels job creation, reduces poverty, and improves public services. The “trickle-down” is not automatic and requires deliberate, pro-poor policies.

Q3: Is the contractor payment issue solely the current government’s fault?

A: It is a systemic, historical problem in Ghana’s public financial management, often inherited from previous administrations. However, the current government is now responsible for managing it. The key question is: What specific, actionable plan has it implemented to clear the arrears pipeline and prevent new ones from accumulating? Has it allocated sufficient resources in the budget for this? Is it enforcing compliance from ministries and agencies? The critique is about the current administration’s handling (or lack thereof) of an existing challenge.

Q4: How can we verify claims about the cocoa farmer’s situation?

A: Look to official sources: the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) announces the annual farmgate price. Compare this to the previous year and to the international market price. Also, monitor reports on the distribution of subsidized fertilizers, the effectiveness of the cocoa disease control program, and the availability of cocoa roads for harvest transportation. Farmer union statements (e.g., Ghana Cocoa Farmers Association) provide on-the-ground perspectives.

Q5: Does the Minority Leader have a political motive?

A: Almost certainly. As the leader of the opposition in a parliamentary system, his role includes holding the government accountable and articulating an alternative vision. This is a core function of a healthy democracy. However, a political motive does not automatically invalidate the factual basis of the critique. The claims about contractor payments and project visibility are empirical and can be investigated independently of the speaker’s party affiliation. The public and media must separate the political framing from the substantive