World Bank Crude Oil Price Forecast 2026: $60 Per Barrel Average Amid Supply Surge

Crude oil price forecasts for 2026 point to an average of $60 per barrel, according to the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook. This projection highlights a balanced oil market driven by robust supply growth and subdued demand, offering potential relief for global inflation. In this comprehensive guide, we break down the forecast, key drivers, and implications for stakeholders.

Introduction

The World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook delivers a pivotal crude oil price forecast for 2026, estimating an average of $60 per barrel. This marks a decline from the projected $68 per barrel in 2025, signaling a softening in Brent crude prices amid ample supply. For investors, consumers, and policymakers tracking oil price forecasts, this outlook underscores the interplay of production ramps and modest consumption growth.

Published in late 2024, the report assumes stable geopolitical conditions and aligns with projections from bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Current Brent crude trades around $63 per barrel, setting the stage for this downward trajectory in average crude oil prices.

Analysis

This section dissects the World Bank’s crude oil price forecast through supply and demand lenses, providing a pedagogical overview of market mechanics.

Supply Dynamics: Record Production Growth

Global oil supply is set to expand significantly in 2025 and 2026. The forecast projects output rising by 3.0 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 2.9%, to a record 106.1 mb/d in 2025, then climbing to 108.5 mb/d in 2026. This surge stems from new projects coming online, particularly in non-OPEC+ nations.

OPEC+ contributes nearly half of the 2025 increase via higher production targets, per IEA data. Non-OPEC growth accelerates in 2026, reflecting investments in shale, offshore, and conventional fields. Understanding mb/d—million barrels per day—is key: it measures daily global output, a standard metric for crude oil supply forecasts.

Demand Trends: Modest Expansion

Oil demand growth remains tempered. The IEA projects 0.7 mb/d increases in both 2025 and 2026, while the EIA forecasts 1.1 mb/d annually. Emerging markets like China and India drive one-quarter of 2025 growth and two-fifths in 2026, per IEA estimates.

China’s demand faces headwinds from electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid adoption, curbing traditional oil use. Advanced economies see flat demand, reverting to 2015-2019 averages. This global oil demand outlook contrasts with supply, pressuring prices downward.

Price Trajectory and Market Rebalancing

After dipping to $60 per barrel in 2026, prices rebound to $65 in 2027 as low levels curb excess supply. This rebalancing assumes no major conflicts, steady OPEC+ discipline, and well-supplied markets.

Summary

In summary, the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook predicts average crude oil prices at $60 per barrel in 2026, down from $68 in 2025 and up to $65 in 2027. Key drivers include supply surging to 108.5 mb/d against demand growth of 0.7-1.1 mb/d. Brent crude’s current $63 level aligns with this path, benefiting inflation control.

Key Points

Practical Advice

For stakeholders navigating Brent crude price forecasts, this outlook offers actionable insights.

For Investors and Traders

Consider hedging against short-term volatility but position for lower averages. Diversify into renewables amid EV-driven demand shifts. Monitor OPEC+ meetings, as production targets directly impact crude oil supply growth.

For Consumers and Businesses

Lower oil prices could ease fuel costs, supporting transportation and manufacturing. Airlines and logistics firms might lock in rates now. Households benefit from reduced gasoline prices, aiding inflation-adjusted budgets.

For Policymakers

Use this forecast to model energy subsidies and inflation targets. Promote efficiency to align with subdued demand trends.

Points of Caution

Forecasts carry uncertainties. The World Bank emphasizes no major armed conflicts; escalations could spike prices. Demand assumes EV adoption continues in China—policy reversals might alter this. OPEC+ supply discipline is critical; overproduction risks deeper price drops. Compare to 2015-2019 averages for context, as current projections revert to those norms.

Comparison

Versus 2025’s $68 per barrel, 2026’s $60 reflects intensified supply-demand imbalance. Historically, post-2022 peaks (over $100), prices have moderated. IEA and EIA demand views differ slightly (0.7 vs. 1.1 mb/d), but converge on modest growth.

Forecasts Across Agencies

This table illustrates alignment on oil market outlook 2026, with supply as the dominant force.

Legal Implications

No direct legal implications arise from this economic forecast. However, compliance with international trade regulations, such as OPEC+ quotas under WTO scrutiny, remains relevant for producers. Antitrust concerns could surface if supply manipulations occur, but the report assumes disciplined markets.

Conclusion

The World Bank’s crude oil price forecast of $60 per barrel in 2026 encapsulates a well-supplied market, modest demand, and inflation-friendly trends. As Brent crude hovers near $63, stakeholders should prepare for volatility while leveraging lower averages. This outlook reinforces energy transition signals, urging diversification beyond fossil fuels. Stay informed via official sources for updates on global oil price forecasts.

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