The Institute for Economic Research, Public and Policy (IERPP) has raised considerations about Ghana’s newest GDP figures, caution that the headline innovator of five.5% recorded within the 3rd quarter of 2025 mask weakening underlying financial stipulations and deepening structural vulnerabilities.

In a place paper launched through the institute, led through Prof. Isaac Boadi of the University of Professional Studies, Accra (UPSA), the assume tank argues that the financial environment is “expanding on the surface but losing momentum underneath,” pointing to slowing innovator throughout key sectors and extending publicity to exterior and home dangers.

Ghana’s 5.5% innovator in Q3 2025 marks a decline from the 7.0% posted in the similar quarter of 2024. Seasonally adjusted quarterly innovator additionally slipped from 1.6% to one.3%, which the IERPP says alerts weakening financial process.

More regarding, the paper notes, is the slowdown in non-oil GDP—from 7.8% to six.8%—indicating that the deceleration is broader than the extractive field on my own.

The GDP deflator additionally dropped sharply from 27.2% to 11.1%, suggesting that earlier nominal good points had been closely influenced through inflation relatively than productiveness enhancements.

The commercial field posted the sharpest slowdown, collapsing from 11.4% innovator closing 12 months to simply 0.8% in Q3 2025. Mining and quarrying reduced in size through 2.8%, whilst oil and fuel shrank through 18.2%, wiping out just about a complete proportion level from total GDP innovator.

“These developments underscore Ghana’s vulnerability to commodity price swings, operational disruptions and external shocks,” the document warns.

The services and products field stays the dominant motive force of nationwide output, contributing kind of 3.25 proportion issues of the 5.5% total innovator.

However, IERPP notes that this finance is ruled through a restricted choice of fast-growing subsectors—Trade (10%), ICT (17%) and Transport and Storage (10.4%).

Meanwhile, labour-intensive services and products comparable to Health and Social Work (-9.7%) and Accommodation and Food Services (-7.2%) are shrinking, undermining task introduction and restricting inclusive innovator.

Agriculture expanded through 8.6% within the quarter, contributing 1.65 proportion issues to overall GDP. But the institute cautions that the field stays extremely seasonal and weather-dependent, limiting its talent to function a long-term stabilizing pressure.

The paper additionally flags volatility in financial process signs. Shifts within the Monthly Index of Economic Activity—such because the leap from 3.7% to five.7% in July on my own—lift considerations in regards to the consistency of present estimates.

According to IERPP, “the evidence points to an economy that appears to be growing, but with declining momentum and increasing structural imbalances.”

To cope with the rising dangers, the institute is asking for focused reforms to reinforce resilience and increase the assets of innovator. These come with:

• Diversifying the commercial base, with a focal point on production, agro-processing and MSMEs
• Expanding virtual financial environment participation
• Managing oil advancement volatility thru progressed fiscal buffers and counterfactual making plans
• Improving information credibility through harmonizing the Monthly Index of Economic Activity and quarterly nationwide accounts, and incorporating self belief periods

Summarising the institute’s findings, Prof. Boadi stressed out that the present innovator profile is unsustainable with out important reforms.

“Ghana’s Q3 2025 GDP shows growth that is slowing and structurally fragile, driven mainly by a narrow set of service activities while oil and gas continue to weigh down industry,” he famous.

“Building a resilient and more diversified economy will require targeted industrial reforms, job-rich sector support, better data accuracy and proactive management of extractive-sector risks.”

The IERPP is urging executive and policymakers to regard the most recent GDP numbers as a caution sign and to behave impulsively to safeguard Ghana’s medium-term financial opportunities.

Below is the overall place paper

Ghana’s Q3-2025 GDP Results: An IERPP Position Paper

This essential analysis of Ghana’s Q3-2025 GDP efficiency is gifted through the Institute for Economic Research, Public and Policy (IERPP) to spot the primary dangers, structural flaws, and coverage measures required to stabilize and reinforce the financial environment. The underlying signs display slowing momentum, increasing fragility, and demanding exposures that want speedy consideration, regardless of the headline numbers appearing an increasing financial environment.

In Q3 2025, Ghana’s financial environment expanded through 5.5 % 12 months over 12 months, in comparison to 7.0 % in the similar quarter of 2024. The seasonally adjusted quarterly innovator fee, which dropped from 1.6 % to one.3 %, indicating weaker underlying process, is some other indication of the slowdown. The slowdown in non-oil GDP innovator, which dropped from 7.8 % to six.8 %, is extra worrisome because it presentations that the slowdown isn’t restricted to extractives. Additionally, the GDP deflator fell precipitously from 27.2 % to 11.1 %, suggesting that value results relatively than actual productiveness good points drove previous nominal good points.

The commercial field, which noticed a pointy decline from 11.4 % to 0.8 % 12 months over 12 months, is the primary supply of innovator drag. Together, mining and quarrying shrank through 2.8 % and oil and fuel shrank through 18.2 %, getting rid of nearly one proportion level from total GDP innovator. These occasions spotlight Ghana’s susceptibility to operational disruptions, volatility within the extractive field, and adjustments in the cost of commodities globally. The GDP remains to be being pushed through the services and products field, which accounts for roughly 3.25 proportion issues of the entire 5.5 % innovator. Nevertheless, this innovator remains to be restricted and concentrated in a couple of high-performing subsectors, together with Trade (10.0%), ICT (17.0%), and Transport and Storage (10.4%). In the period in-between, essential labor-intensive services and products like Health and Social Work (−9.7%) and Accommodation and Food Services (−7.2%) are declining, undermining task introduction and limiting innovator’s inclusivity.

Despite a robust 8.6 % innovator, agriculture’s percentage of the entire GDP remains to be just one.65 proportion issues. The field’s reliability as a gentle innovator anchor is restricted through its extremely seasonal and weather-dependent good points. The seasonally adjusted quarterly figures, which display present innovator of one.3 % underneath contemporary averages of one.4 to one.6 %, additional reveal the lack of financial momentum. Furthermore, important adjustments to the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, just like the alternate from 3.7 % to five.7 % in July, reveal ongoing information volatility and lift the likelihood that present estimates are erratic. The information and accompanying charts be offering robust visible evidence of structural imbalances and a slowing financial environment. An image of an financial environment increasing at the floor however dropping steam beneath is painted through the decline in year-over-year GDP innovator, the heavy reliance on a small choice of provider industries, the pointy contraction in oil and fuel, and the waning quarterly momentum.

ERPP urges focused reforms to reinforce Ghana’s innovator and resilience. It recommends diversifying the commercial base, supporting production, agro-processing, and MSMEs, and broadening participation within the virtual financial environment. Policymakers must set up oil volatility thru counterfactual making plans and more potent fiscal buffers, whilst bettering information reliability through integrating self belief periods and harmonizing MIEG and QNA.

Ghana’s Q3-2025 GDP presentations innovator this is slowing and structurally fragile, pushed principally through a slim set of provider actions whilst oil and fuel proceed to crush technological advance. Building a resilient and extra different financial environment would require targeted commercial reforms, job-rich field give a boost to, higher information accuracy, and proactive startup creator of extractive-sector dangers.

Author:
Prof. Isaac Boadi
Dean, Faculty of Accounting and Finance, UPSA
Executive Director, Institute of Economic and Research Policy, IERPP

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