Ghana Cedi to Weaken by 8% Against US Dollar in 2026 – Forecast & Analysis

Introduction

According to the latest forecast by global economic research firm Fitch Solutions, the Ghanaian cedi (GHS) is projected to depreciate by approximately 8.0% against the US dollar (USD) by 2026. This anticipated moderation in currency strength forms part of Fitch Solutions’ broader analysis of Ghana’s economic trajectory through the latter half of the decade. While the forecast reflects ongoing challenges in the West African nation’s foreign exchange management, it also underscores resilience driven by robust gold exports, healthy international reserves, and targeted fiscal policies.

In this comprehensive guide, we break down the forecast’s implications, explore the underlying economic drivers, and provide actionable insights for businesses, investors, and everyday consumers navigating Ghana’s evolving monetary landscape.

Key Points

Background

Recent Performance of the Ghana Cedi

In the final two weeks of 2025, the Ghana cedi faced modest depreciation pressures across major trading pairs due to seasonal demand for foreign currency and cautious liquidity management by the Bank of Ghana. Key movements included:

• Interbank USD/GHS rate: Closed at GH¢11.41 (up from GH¢11.12), reflecting a 2.6% biweekly increase.
• Pound Sterling: Depreciated 4.62% to GH¢15.26.
• Euro: Lost 3.87% to settle at GH¢13.32.

In retail markets, the cedi weakened 0.41% against the USD to GH¢12.05, while falling 0.94% versus Sterling (GH¢15.90) and 1.08% against the Euro (GH¢13.95).

Long-Term Context and Historical Trends

Fitch Solutions’ 8% depreciation forecast for 2026 sits below the cedi’s long-term average annual depreciation of 10.2% observed between 2010 and 2025. This suggests that while headwinds persist, policy measures and structural improvements are helping to stabilize the currency’s trajectory.

Ghana’s economy has historically been sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity prices, particularly gold — which accounts for a significant share of export earnings. Recent years have seen improved reserve management and tighter fiscal discipline, contributing to a more predictable exchange rate environment.

Analysis

Fitch Solutions’ Forecast Methodology

The 8% depreciation projection incorporates several macroeconomic variables:

• Inflation dynamics: Expected to average around 15–17% through 2026, slightly above pre-2022 levels but still moderate by regional standards.
• Fiscal policy: The government’s commitment to a 9% wage adjustment for public-sector employees is designed to alleviate cost-of-living pressures and stimulate demand.
• Gold market performance: Higher global gold prices boost export revenues, supporting forex inflows and reducing depreciation pressure.
• Reserve adequacy: The Bank of Ghana maintains sufficient foreign exchange reserves to intervene in markets and stabilize the cedi.

Inflation Outlook and Consumer Impact

Fitch Solutions anticipates that inflation will remain elevated in the second half of 2026 due to lingering demand-side pressures. However, the forecast emphasizes that increases will stay within manageable bounds, preventing severe strain on household budgets.

The planned 9% public-sector wage hike is expected to offset a portion of inflation-driven purchasing power erosion. This measure, combined with targeted social protection programs, should help maintain consumption growth at 6.5% in 2026 — contributing 5.3 percentage points to overall GDP expansion.

Role of Gold Prices and Foreign Reserves

Ghana’s status as a top global gold producer provides a critical buffer against currency volatility. Recent upticks in gold prices have translated into stronger export earnings, bolstering forex reserves and reducing the need for aggressive cedi devaluation.

The Bank of Ghana’s reserves, while still below optimal levels, have shown improvement since 2023. Analysts note that sustained gold revenues and disciplined fiscal policy will be essential to maintaining this positive trend through 2026.

Policy Challenges and Risks

Despite supportive factors, several risks could accelerate cedi depreciation:

• Global commodity price volatility: A sharp drop in gold prices could dampen export revenues.
• Regional economic instability: Political or economic shocks in neighboring ECOWAS states may impact cross-border trade and investor sentiment.
• Domestic debt sustainability: High public debt levels could prompt currency sell-offs if investors perceive fiscal risks.

Practical Advice

Strategies for Businesses

Companies operating in or with Ghana can mitigate cedi exposure through the following approaches:

• Hedging: Utilize forward contracts or options to lock in exchange rates for future transactions.
• Diversified revenue streams: Expand into export markets priced in stable currencies (e.g., EUR, GBP).
• Local sourcing: Increase procurement of inputs domestically to reduce forex dependency.
• Cash flow management: Maintain liquidity in both cedi and foreign currencies to capitalize on favorable rate movements.

Guidance for Individuals and Households

For consumers and families, consider these steps to manage currency risk:

• Travel planning: Convert USD to GHS close to departure dates to avoid pre-trip depreciation losses.
• Import purchases: Evaluate timing large purchases (e.g., electronics, vehicles) based on cedi strength indicators.
• Savings: Allocate a small portion of savings to stable foreign currency accounts as a hedge against extreme depreciation.
• Budgeting: Adjust household budgets to account for potential price increases in imported goods.

Investment and Portfolio Considerations

Investors should assess Ghana’s macroeconomic fundamentals before allocating capital:

• Equity markets: Focus on sectors less sensitive to cedi movements, such as domestic consumer goods or agriculture.
• Bond markets: Monitor sovereign bond yields for signs of currency-linked risk premiums.
• Real estate: Consider properties in major urban centers with strong rental income potential in GHS.
• Commodity exposure: Weight portfolios toward gold mining equities to benefit from Ghana’s export strengths.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Will the cedi depreciation affect Ghana’s inflation rate?

While depreciation typically imports inflation by making imports more expensive, Fitch Solutions expects inflation to remain moderate in 2026 due to policy buffers and strong gold-driven forex inflows.

How does Ghana’s debt profile impact the cedi?

High external debt denominated in foreign currencies can amplify depreciation pressure if debt service costs rise. However, Ghana’s recent focus on domestic debt restructuring aims to reduce this vulnerability.

Are there any upcoming policy changes that could alter this forecast?

Policy shifts — such as adjustments to interest rates, reserve requirements, or fiscal spending — could influence the cedi’s trajectory. Investors should monitor announcements from the Bank of Ghana and the Ministry of Finance.

How does the cedi compare to other African currencies?

The cedi’s projected 8% depreciation aligns with moderate trends seen in peers like the Nigerian naira and South African rand, reflecting regional economic conditions and commodity dependence.

What tools can individuals use to track cedi performance?

Reliable sources include the Bank of Ghana’s official exchange rate portal, Bloomberg, XE.com, and local financial news platforms such as Graphic Online and Joy Business.

Conclusion

Fitch Solutions’ forecast of an 8% cedi depreciation against the US dollar by 2026 reflects a balanced view of Ghana’s economic resilience and lingering vulnerabilities. Supported by robust gold exports, prudent reserve management, and targeted wage policies, the cedi is expected to navigate external headwinds without severe instability.

For stakeholders — from multinational corporations to individual savers — proactive hedging, diversified income streams, and close monitoring of policy developments will be essential to capitalize on opportunities and mitigate risks in Ghana’s evolving monetary environment.