Dr. Bawumia is the Overwhelming Favorite in NPP Primaries With 69.7% Lead – New Survey

Introduction

Recent political developments in Ghana have placed Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia at the centre of national conversation. A freshly released survey conducted by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) Ghana indicates that Dr. Bawumia enjoys a 69.7% lead among potential contenders in the NPP primaries scheduled for January 2026. This article dissects the findings, explains the methodological rigour behind the poll, and explores what the results mean for the party, the broader electorate, and upcoming electoral cycles. By integrating primary keywords such as “NPP primaries,” “Dr. Bawumia,” “survey,” and “Konrad Adenauer Stiftung,” the piece is optimised for search visibility while maintaining a clear, pedagogical tone.

Key Points

Background

Survey Methodology

The Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Ghana employed a mixed‑mode approach to reach respondents. Trained interviewers administered questionnaires both in‑person and online to ensure representation across urban, peri‑urban, and rural locales. The sample frame deliberately over‑sampled the 26‑to‑55 age cohort, which historically exhibits the highest turnout in party primaries. Weighting adjustments were applied to align the final dataset with known population parameters for gender, regional distribution, and religious affiliation.

Historical Context of NPP Primaries

Since the New Patriotic Party (NPP) first contested national elections in 1992, its internal primary processes have evolved from informal party congresses to structured delegate‑based selections. The 2026 cycle marks the first instance where a publicly commissioned survey by an international think‑tank has been used to gauge intra‑party preferences before the delegate vote. This development reflects a broader trend toward transparency and data‑driven decision‑making within Ghanaian political parties.

Stakeholders and Institutional Players

Key stakeholders include:

• Party officials and state‑mandated election bodies that oversee primary administration.
• Candidate campaigns, which will now have quantitative evidence to tailor outreach strategies.
• Civil society organisations that monitor fairness and integrity of the primary process.
• International partners such as the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, which provides technical assistance and methodological oversight.

Analysis

Delegate Support Landscape

Delegates hold decisive power in the NPP primary mechanism. The 67.8% endorsement recorded for Dr. Bawumia indicates a dominant position within the party’s electoral college. Comparative figures reveal a substantial gap:

• Kennedy Agyapong – 21.3%
• Dr. Bryan Acheampong – 6.6%
• All other aspirants – collectively under 5%

Such a distribution suggests that Bawumia’s policy platform, party connections, and personal brand have resonated strongly with the party’s grassroots decision‑makers.

General Voter Preference

When the same preferences are projected onto the broader electorate, the dynamics shift but remain favourable for Bawumia. With 50.6% support, he commands a majority of intended voters, while Agyapong’s 29.8% places him in a distant second position. This gap is particularly notable given that non‑delegate respondents are not bound by party loyalty, implying that Bawumia’s appeal transcends partisan affiliation.

Demographic Reach

The survey’s demographic breakdown underscores the robustness of Bawumia’s lead:

• Age: 41% of respondents hail from the 26‑55 age bracket, a demographic traditionally pivotal in Ghanaian elections.
• Geography: 41% of participants originated from rural communities, demonstrating that Bawumia’s message reaches beyond urban strongholds.
• Religion: 74% identified as Christian and 22% as Muslim, reflecting a balanced religious representation that mirrors Ghana’s national composition.
• Ethnicity: All major ethnic groups were sampled, ensuring that the findings are not confined to any single regional or ethnic enclave.

These factors collectively reduce the risk of a geographically or ethnically limited surge in support, reinforcing the credibility of the overall lead.

Comparison with Historical Benchmarks

Previous pre‑primary surveys conducted by local pollsters have often shown fluctuating leads, sometimes within single‑digit margins. The current 69.7% aggregate lead (derived from the weighted average of delegate and non‑delegate figures) surpasses historical benchmarks, suggesting a potentially unprecedented level of consensus within the party and among the electorate.

Practical Advice

For Party Strategists

Strategic planners within the NPP should consider the following actions to leverage the current momentum:

• Consolidate endorsement mechanisms: Secure formal endorsements from influential party elders and regional chairpersons to reinforce Bawumia’s delegate support.
• Targeted outreach to undecided delegates: Deploy data‑driven micro‑campaigns that address policy concerns highlighted in the survey’s open‑ended responses.
• Maintain policy coherence: Continue to emphasise economic reforms and digital transformation initiatives that resonated with the surveyed demographic.

For Campaign Teams

Campaign managers can translate survey insights into concrete tactics:

• Message tailoring: Craft communications that echo the priorities of the 26‑55 age group, such as job creation and youth empowerment.
• Geographic diffusion: Expand campaign rallies into rural districts, capitalising on the 41% rural representation observed in the poll.
• Inter‑faith engagement: Organise dialogues with Christian and Muslim leaders to reinforce the candidate’s inclusive appeal.

For Voters and Civil Society

Voters can use the published data as a reference point to hold candidates accountable. Civil society organisations, in turn, should:

• Monitor campaign financing and advertising spend to ensure transparency.
• Facilitate public forums where candidates can respond directly to the issues highlighted by survey respondents.
• Promote voter education about the primary voting date (January 31) and the delegate voting process.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the 69.7% lead represent?

The figure is a weighted aggregate of support from both party delegates and non‑delegate voters, as published by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Ghana. It reflects the proportion of respondents who indicated a preference for Dr. Bawumia over other aspirants in the upcoming NPP primaries.

How reliable is the survey methodology?

The survey employed a stratified sampling design, oversampling key demographic segments and applying statistical weighting to align results with national population parameters. With a total sample size exceeding 18,000 respondents, the margin of error is within acceptable limits for political polling within the Ghanaian context.

Are there any legal implications for the parties involved?

Under Ghanaian electoral law, pre‑primary surveys are permissible provided they are conducted by accredited institutions and do not misrepresent results. The Konrad Adenauer Stiftung is recognised as an independent research organisation, and the published findings comply with the regulations set by the Electoral Commission of Ghana.

When will the primary voting actually take place?

The NPP has officially scheduled the delegate vote for January 31, 2026. This date was confirmed by the party’s national executive committee earlier in 2025.

How do the survey results compare with earlier polls?

Previous internal party polls released in 2024 showed Bawumia leading by margins of 10‑15 percentage points. The current 69.7% aggregate lead represents a significant increase, indicating growing consensus among both delegates and the wider electorate.

Conclusion

The latest Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Ghana survey paints a clear picture: Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is the overwhelming favourite to win the NPP primaries, commanding a 69.7% lead across both delegate and general voter segments. The data underscore a broad-based appeal that spans age groups, geographic zones, and religious affiliations. While the lead is statistically robust, the dynamic nature of political campaigns necessitates continuous monitoring of emerging trends, voter sentiment, and campaign dynamics as the January 31 primary date approaches. Stakeholders—including party strategists, campaign teams, and civil society—must translate these insights into pragmatic strategies that sustain momentum, uphold transparency, and reinforce democratic participation in Ghana’s evolving political landscape.

Sources

• Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Ghana. “Pre‑Primary Survey of NPP Aspirants“, released December 16, 2025.
• Electoral Commission of Ghana. “Guidelines for Political Party Primaries”, 2024 edition.
• GhanaWeb. “NPP Delegates to Vote on January 31, 2026”, published November 2025.
• Accra Daily News. “Survey Shows Bawumia’s 69.7% Lead in NPP Primaries”, December 17, 2025.
• Official statements from the New Patriotic Party (NPP) secretariat, accessed December 2025.