African Union Summit Overshadowed by Intensifying Saudi-UAE Rivalry in the Horn of Africa

The February 2026 African Union (AU) summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, convenes against a backdrop of escalating and隐蔽 geopolitical contention. A fierce and multifaceted competition between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for influence in the Horn of Africa is casting a long shadow over the continental gathering. Diplomats and regional experts indicate that this Gulf rivalry is actively complicating conflict dynamics across the region, forcing African states and non-state actors to navigate treacherous diplomatic waters, and threatening to undermine the AU’s centrality in resolving its own crises. This article provides a comprehensive, SEO-optimized analysis of the situation, detailing its origins, current manifestations, and potential consequences for African security and diplomacy.

Key Points at a Glance

• Summit Distraction: The Saudi-UAE rivalry is a dominant, unofficial agenda item at the AU summit, diverting attention from core African issues like the Sahel insurgencies and the Congo conflict.
• Proxy Conflicts: The competition is fueling and complicating existing wars in Sudan, Somalia, and Libya, with each Gulf power backing opposing factions.
• UAE’s Established Footprint: The UAE has built significant influence in the Horn through multi-billion-dollar investments, port deals, and a discreet but capable expeditionary military force.
• Saudi Counter-Strategy: Saudi Arabia, initially slower to act, is now assembling a counter-coalition that includes Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar to check UAE expansion.
• Forced Alignments: Regional actors, from Eritrea to Sudanese warlords, are being pressured to choose sides, compromising regional diplomacy and AU-led solutions.
• Strategic Stakes: Control over Red Sea and Gulf of Aden trade routes, access to African markets, and ideological competition are core drivers of the Gulf contest.
• AU’s Dilemma: The African Union faces a severe test of its ability to maintain neutrality and assert its authority as external powers exploit continental divisions.

Background: The Geopolitical Prize of the Horn of Africa

Why the Horn? Strategic and Economic Imperatives

The Horn of Africa—encompassing Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan—is a region of unparalleled strategic importance. It controls the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint through which a significant portion of global maritime trade, particularly oil and liquefied natural gas, flows between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea/Suez Canal. For Gulf monarchies whose economies are heavily reliant on energy exports and global trade, securing influence over these sea lanes is a matter of national security and economic vitality.

Beyond maritime security, the region offers vast investment opportunities in ports, logistics, agriculture, and telecommunications. Furthermore, the political instability and state fragility that have long plagued the Horn create openings for external powers to gain footholds through economic aid, military partnerships, and diplomatic mediation—often with minimal accountability.

The UAE’s Early and Aggressive Advance

Over the past decade, the UAE has pursued an assertive and meticulously crafted strategy in the Horn. Leveraging the sovereign wealth funds of its ruling family and state-linked entities like the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Dubai Ports World, it has invested billions in critical infrastructure. Key acquisitions and developments include:

• Port concessions and management rights in Djibouti (Doraleh), Somaliland (Berbera), and Somalia (Bosaso).
• Major investments in Ethiopian infrastructure and industrial parks.
• Establishing a network of military access agreements, most notably a base in Assab, Eritrea, and a significant presence in Somaliland.

This “business-first” approach is backed by a capable, modern military that has deployed special forces, drones, and combat aircraft in Yemen, Libya, and reportedly the Horn itself. The UAE has positioned itself as a indispensable security and development partner for regimes and entities willing to align with its interests, often championing a hardline stance against political Islamist movements like the Muslim Brotherhood.

Saudi Arabia’s Late but Systematic Response

Saudi Arabia, traditionally more cautious and focused on its northern and western borders, initially ceded ground to its smaller, nimbler Gulf rival. However, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s leadership, Riyadh has adopted a more proactive foreign policy. Alarmed by the UAE’s unchecked expansion and its perceived destabilizing effects (especially from the Yemen war), Saudi Arabia has mobilized its vast financial resources and diplomatic weight. Its strategy relies less on direct military footprints and more on building a broad coalition of like-minded states. This includes its long-standing alliance with Egypt, a strategic partnership with Turkey (despite broader tensions), and financial support for Qatar—all states with their own interests in countering UAE influence or securing their own positions in the region.

Analysis: How the Rivalry Manifests Across the Horn

The competition is not a single dispute but a multi-front campaign playing out in several key arenas, often intersecting with and exacerbating pre-existing local conflicts.

Sudan: A Primary Battleground

The ongoing war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) has become a stark proxy conflict. According to multiple diplomatic sources cited by Reuters and other agencies:

• The UAE is widely accused of providing logistical support, including drones and ammunition, to the RSF. This aligns with the UAE’s historical ties to Hemedti, who commanded the RSF during the Darfur conflict and has business interests in UAE-linked gold mining.
• The Saudi-led coalition, including Egypt, has thrown its weight behind the SAF. Egypt has directly intervened, using Turkish-made drones along its border to strike RSF positions, a clear indication of the regionalization of the conflict.
• This external backing has prolonged the conflict, devastating Sudan and complicating any AU-led mediation efforts, as any settlement must now account for the interests of powerful external patrons.

Somalia: Diplomatic Warfare and Broken Ties

Somalia has become a theater for intense diplomatic and financial pressure. The rupture came after the UAE allegedly encouraged Israel’s controversial recognition of Somaliland’s independence claim in 2025—a move Somalia views as an existential threat. In response:

• Somalia’s federal government severed ties with the UAE and expelled Emirati diplomats.
• It quickly pivoted to sign a defense pact with Qatar, a Saudi rival and UAE critic.
• Turkey, another Saudi ally in this context, reinforced its support by sending fighter jets for joint exercises, a clear show of force aimed at deterring further UAE/Israeli moves.

This episode demonstrates how Gulf rivalries can instantly redraw alliances in fragile states, turning them into pawns in larger games.

The Ethiopia-Eritrea Nexus and the Red Sea Coast

The fragile peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea, neighbors with a history of brutal war, is under strain. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia was interpreted by analysts as a bid for Saudi patronage and a signal of alignment against the UAE, which has cultivated a strong relationship with Ethiopia’s government. Ethiopia, for its part, has benefited from UAE investment and, according to Reuters’ investigation, is hosting a facility in western Ethiopia where RSF fighters are recruited and trained—a direct link between the Sudan proxy war and the Horn’s geopolitics.

Libya and the Sahel: Expanding Frontiers

The competition spills over into Libya, where the UAE has backed the warlord Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) for years, while Qatar and Turkey have supported the rival UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). Though the LNA has gained the upper hand with UAE support, the country remains a fractured state. Experts also warn the rivalry is “playing out in the Sahel,” where both Gulf powers are seeking alliances with military juntas in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, often through security contracts and aid, further entangling regional instability.

Acting Through Allies and Proxies

A key feature of the Saudi strategy is its reliance on a network of allies—Egypt, Turkey, Qatar—to act as force multipliers. This allows Riyadh to maintain plausible deniability while still expanding its influence. As scholar Michael Woldemariam notes, this creates a complex environment for Horn actors: “Even those actors… alarmed by UAE influence may be cautious about how much they want to be caught up in a brawl between these two Gulf powers.” The risk is a cascading series of alignments that locks the region into permanent rivalry.

Practical Advice: Navigating the Storm

For African policymakers, diplomats, and civil society, this external penetration presents a grave challenge. Here is a framework for response:

For the African Union and Regional Bodies

1. Reassert African Solutions: The AU must vigorously champion its own peace and security architecture, such as the African Standby Force, to reduce dependence on external mediators and arms suppliers. The summit should issue a clear statement on the principle of non-interference by external powers in African conflicts.
2. Enhance Transparency: Push for full disclosure of all foreign military agreements, base access requests, and large-scale investment deals involving member states. Secrecy fuels competition and corruption.
3. Dialogue with Gulf States: The AU should engage both Saudi Arabia and the UAE collectively, framing their competition as destabilizing and proposing a code of conduct for foreign engagement in Africa, similar to discussions on external investment.

For National Governments in the Horn

1. Strategic Diversification: Avoid over-dependence on any single external patron. Diversify economic partnerships and security alliances to maintain sovereign decision-making space.
2. Leverage Competition: Where possible, use the rivalry to secure better terms for development projects and security assistance, but always with extreme caution to avoid becoming a permanent client state.
3. Strengthen Regional Integration: Bilateral and sub-regional cooperation (e.g., IGAD) is a critical buffer against external divide-and-rule tactics. Revive joint security initiatives and economic corridors.

For Civil Society and Media

1. Investigate and Expose: Rigorous, evidence-based reporting on foreign military activities, illicit financial flows, and the human cost of proxy wars is essential to hold both external powers and local collaborators accountable.
2. Advocate for Accountability: Campaign for the enforcement of existing African charters on democracy, governance, and the prevention of unconstitutional changes of government, which are often undermined by external backing of strongmen.
3. Build Public Awareness: Educate citizens on the long-term dangers of allowing their nations to become battlegrounds for foreign rivalries, framing it as a neocolonial threat to African agency.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the core of the Saudi-UAE rivalry in the Horn of Africa?

It is a multi-layered contest for strategic dominance over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden sea lanes, access to African markets and resources, and ideological influence. The UAE pursues an aggressive, business-military hybrid model, while Saudi Arabia is building a coalition-based counterweight. Both are fueled by mutual suspicion and a desire to shape regional order in their favor.

How does this affect ordinary people in the Horn?

It exacerbates and prolongs conflicts like the war in Sudan, leading to massive displacement, famine risk, and humanitarian crises. It fuels an arms race, diverts national resources into military spending, and corrupts local politics as elites profit from foreign patronage. Long-term development is sacrificed for short-term strategic gains.

Why can’t the African Union simply expel these foreign powers?

The AU lacks enforcement mechanisms. Many Horn governments have invited in these powers, often out of perceived security necessity or financial inducement