Ghana Economic Performance 2025: Why Ato Forson is Right on NPP Failures vs NDC IMF Successes

Introduction

In Ghana’s dynamic political landscape, Finance Minister Dr. Ato Forson has sparked debate by asserting that if economic recovery were simple, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) would have achieved it during their tenure. This statement, rooted in the 2025 and 2026 Budget Statements, challenges NPP claims crediting their administration for current successes like robust GDP growth, debt relief, and single-digit inflation. Instead, official data reveals NPP’s 2024 underperformance against IMF program benchmarks, while the National Democratic Congress (NDC) government, since January 2025, has exceeded targets through disciplined fiscal policies.

This article pedagogically breaks down verifiable economic indicators from Ghana’s Budget Statement and Economic Policy documents—presented on March 11, 2025, and November 13, 2025—under the “Resetting for Growth, Jobs, and Economic Transformation” theme. Learn how key metrics like inflation rates, fiscal balances, and reserves define Ghana economic performance 2025, empowering readers to evaluate NDC vs NPP economic management objectively.

Analysis

Understanding Ghana’s economic trajectory requires examining IMF-supported program outcomes. The IMF program, aimed at stabilizing the economy post-2022 debt default, sets quantifiable targets for inflation control, fiscal discipline, arrears management, and growth. NPP figures, including former Finance Minister Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam and others, attribute 2025 gains to their “foundation,” dismissing NDC efforts as mere IMF compliance. However, budget documents provide factual counter-evidence.

NPP’s 2024 Shortfalls Under IMF Benchmarks

In 2024, under President Mahamadu Bawumia’s Economic Management Team, Ghana faced persistent slippages. End-period inflation hit 23.8%, surpassing the IMF target of 18% by 5.8 percentage points and the budget target of 15% by 8.8 points. This eroded purchasing power, making essentials unaffordable for households.

Fiscal and Arrears Mismanagement

Primary balance on a commitment basis showed a 3.9% of GDP deficit, deteriorating from -0.2% in 2023 and missing the IMF surplus target of 0.5% by 4.4 points. Overall fiscal balance was a 7.9% deficit on commitment basis against 4.2% target. Central government arrears reached GH¢67.5 billion (5.7% of GDP), excluding additional debts to Independent Power Producers (US$1.73 billion), ECG (GH¢68 billion), COCOBOD (GH¢32 billion), and Road Fund (GH¢5.75 billion). Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) committed GH¢194 billion (16.5% of GDP) via unbudgeted contracts, breaching the Public Financial Management Act.

Sectoral Failures and Audits

Cocoa production fell nearly 50% over three years, with the 2023/24 season short 330,000 tonnes, causing US$840 million revenue loss from forward contracts and US$495 million more in 2025. NDC audits in 2025 uncovered US$31 billion in fraudulent Import Declaration Forms (IDFs) with no imports, plus GH¢76 billion in under-declared imports costing GH¢11 billion in revenue. Over 17,700 IDFs exceeded Bank of Ghana limits, facilitating US$20 billion in illicit transfers. An independent audit rejected GH¢10.4 billion of inherited GH¢68.8 billion arrears for fraud, saving billions. The debt service Sinking Fund dwindled to US$64,000 and GH¢143 million by January 2025 from higher 2016 levels.

NDC’s 2025 Overachievements

From January 2025, NDC policies emphasized fiscal prudence, monetary-fiscal coordination, Cedi stability, food security, revenue mobilization, and anti-corruption. First-half 2025 real GDP grew 6.3% (vs. 4.0% IMF target), non-oil GDP 7.8% (vs. 4.8%). By October, inflation dropped to 8.0%, below 11.9% end-year target. Fiscal surpluses emerged: primary balance 1.6% surplus (vs. 0.6% Q3 target). Reserves covered 4.8 months of imports (vs. 3 months floor). Public debt-to-GDP fell to 45.0% from 61.8%. Sovereign ratings upgraded by Fitch (‘B-‘, June), Moody’s (‘Caa1’, October), S&P (‘B-/B’, November). Bank of Ghana cut policy rate 650 basis points to 21.5%.

Summary

Ghana economic performance 2025 marks a stark reversal: NPP’s 2024 IMF misses in inflation (23.8%), deficits (7.9% GDP), and arrears (GH¢67.5 billion) left vulnerabilities, while NDC’s first 10 months delivered 6.3% GDP growth, 8.0% inflation, debt reduction, and full IMF compliance. Ato Forson’s critique, backed by budget data, underscores superior NDC stewardship in the IMF Ghana program.

Key Points

Practical Advice

For Ghanaians navigating economic recovery, monitor key indicators via Bank of Ghana and Ministry of Finance reports. Households can budget using single-digit inflation trends: track food prices via Ghana Statistical Service data. Businesses should leverage lower policy rates (21.5%) for affordable credit—apply via recapitalized banks. Farmers benefit from stabilized cocoa policies; join producer cooperatives for revenue gains. Investors eye rating upgrades for opportunities in infrastructure and non-oil sectors. Engage in revenue mobilization by reporting irregularities to the Ghana Revenue Authority, supporting fiscal prudence.

Tracking Personal Finances

Calculate inflation impact: If 2024 prices rose 23.8%, adjust 2025 budgets downward with 8.0% rate. Use apps like BoG’s inflation calculator for real-time insights.

Points of Caution

While 2025 gains are promising, past NPP-era risks linger: unverified arrears (GH¢8.6B under review) could resurface without vigilance. Cocoa volatility from climate and contracts demands sustained investment. Over-reliance on IMF targets risks external shocks; domestic policies like food self-sufficiency are crucial. Citizens should scrutinize unbudgeted contracts to prevent PFM Act repeats. Inflation resurgence is possible—monitor policy rate cuts closely.

Comparison

This side-by-side highlights NDC’s outperformance in Ghana IMF program metrics, validating Ato Forson’s position on NPP vs NDC economic management.

Legal Implications

NPP’s GH¢194 billion unbudgeted MDA contracts violated Ghana’s Public Financial Management Act (Act 921), which mandates certified budgeting. Fraudulent IDFs (US$31 billion) and under-declared imports implicate customs and tax laws under the Customs Act and Customs Tariff Act. Illicit transfers via 17,700+ excess IDFs breach Bank of Ghana forex regulations. NDC audits, rejecting GH¢10.4 billion arrears for falsified documents, trigger ongoing investigations, potentially leading to prosecutions under anti-corruption laws like the Office of the Special Prosecutor Act. These ensure accountability in fiscal governance.

Conclusion

Dr. Ato Forson’s assertion holds: NPP’s 2024 economic mismanagement—evident in IMF target misses, cocoa collapses, and fraud—contrasts sharply with NDC’s 2025 triumphs in GDP expansion, inflation taming, and debt reduction. The “Reset Agenda” under President John Mahama, with Finance Minister Forson and team, delivers verifiable progress via budget statements. This foundation promises sustained growth, jobs, and transformation, urging all Ghanaians to support transparent policies for a prosperous future.

FAQ