Bawumia’s 2028 Prospects: Why the NPP’s ‘Flag’ Condition Matters More Than the Bearer

Following Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s victory in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primaries, a critical question dominates Ghanaian political discourse: Can he lead the party to victory in the 2028 general elections? According to Dr. Kwabena Bomfeh Jnr, a respected political analyst and lecturer at the University of Professional Studies, Accra (UPSA), the answer depends less on Bawumia’s personal credentials and far more on the NPP’s ability to heal, rebrand, and present a united front. His analysis, framed around a compelling metaphor, provides a essential roadmap for understanding the party’s monumental challenge.

Introduction: The Flagbearer and the Flag

In Ghana’s vibrant democracy, the selection of a presidential flagbearer is a moment of high drama and strategic recalibration. When Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia emerged victorious from the NPP’s 2026 primaries, he secured the mantle to carry his party’s hopes into the 2028 presidential election. However, as Dr. Bomfeh cautioned in an interview on JoyNews’ AM Show, a flagbearer is only as effective as the flag they carry. His warning—that Bawumia “would possibly fight” if the NPP “fails to rebuild symbol”—is not a prediction of physical conflict, but a stark political prognosis: a divided, tarnished, or unappealing party brand will cripple even the most competent candidate’s campaign. This article unpacks Dr. Bomfeh’s metaphor, examining the structural, perceptual, and strategic hurdles the NPP must overcome to make Bawumia’s 2028 bid viable.

Key Points: The Core of the Argument

Dr. Bomfeh’s analysis can be distilled into several critical takeaways for anyone following Ghana’s political trajectory:

• The Candidate is Not Enough: Dr. Bawumia’s experience as Vice-President and his perceived competence are necessary but insufficient conditions for victory in 2028.
• The Party is the Brand: The NPP’s current public perception—its “flag”—is damaged. Issues of internal division, perceived arrogance, and a failure to connect with everyday Ghanaians must be addressed.
• Unity is Non-Negotiable: Post-primary reconciliation is not optional. A visibly fractured party will repel swing voters and demotivate the base.
• Policy Must Meet Perception: The party’s policy agenda must align seamlessly with its actions and messaging. A gap between promise and performance is fatal.
• Emotional Reconnection is Key: Beyond policy papers, the NPP must demonstrate a deep, empathetic understanding of the challenges ordinary Ghanaians face.

Background: The Path to the 2026 Primaries

The NPP’s Recent Electoral Journey

To understand the urgency of Dr. Bomfeh’s warning, one must contextualize the NPP’s recent history. The party won a historic second term in the 2020 elections, maintaining power under President Nana Akufo-Addo. However, the subsequent four years were marked by significant economic headwinds, including a severe debt crisis, high inflation, and widespread public discontent over the cost of living. These economic pressures translated into political vulnerability, setting the stage for a potentially challenging 2024 election (the outcome of which would define the 2028 landscape).

The 2026 Presidential Primary Results

On January 31, 2026, the NPP held its presidential primaries to select a candidate to lead the party into the next election cycle, should the party be in opposition following the 2024 polls, or to defend its record if it retained power. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the incumbent Vice-President, won decisively:

• Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia: 110,643 votes (approximately 56.4% of valid votes)
• Kennedy Ohene Agyapong: 46,554 votes
• Dr. Bryan Acheampong: 36,303 votes
• Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum: 1,999 votes
• Kwabena Agyei Agyepong: 402 votes

Total votes cast: 196,462, with 561 ballots rejected. This clear majority gave Bawumia an unambiguous mandate from the party’s electoral college. Yet, as Dr. Bomfeh notes, an internal mandate is the starting line, not the finish line, for a national campaign.

Analysis: Deconstructing the “Flag” Metaphor

Dr. Bomfeh’s metaphor is rich with meaning for political strategists and observers. It succinctly captures the relationship between a candidate (the bearer) and the party organization and its public image (the flag). Let’s break down the layers of this analogy.

The Bearer: Dr. Bawumia’s Assets and Limitations

As the flagbearer, Dr. Bawumia brings formidable assets. He has high name recognition from two terms as Vice-President. He is often perceived as a technocrat with a grasp of economic issues. His campaign likely emphasized continuity, stability, and experienced leadership. However, the “bearer” metaphor inherently limits his agency. A bearer cannot change the fundamental design or condition of the flag. Similarly, a candidate cannot single-handedly overhaul a party’s brand, heal deep-seated internal rifts from a competitive primary, or instantly reverse a negative public perception built over years. Bawumia’s strengths are tied to the party’s overall health.

The Flag: The NPP’s Current Condition and “Punches”

This is the crux of Dr. Bomfeh’s concern. He states the flag “has issues. It has punches; they need to fix them.” In political terms, the “punches” (likely a colloquialism for holes, flaws, or blemishes) represent:

• Perceived Elitism and Disconnect: A common critique of the NPP is that it is an elite club out of touch with the market woman, the farmer, and the urban worker struggling with inflation.
• Internal Factionalism: The primary itself, while democratic, exposed and intensified existing factions within the party. The significant votes for Kennedy Agyapong and Bryan Acheampong represent a substantial bloc that must be genuinely integrated, not just verbally appeased.
• Communication Gaps: The party’s messaging during its time in government may have failed to translate complex policies into relatable stories of improvement in citizens’ daily lives.
• Negative Public Sentiment: If the party is associated with economic hardship, corruption allegations, or high-level arrogance in the public mind, this is a heavy flag to carry.

The 2028 Electorate: The Crowd Judging the Display

Ultimately, the flag is displayed for the electorate. Dr. Bomfeh emphasizes that the NPP must “reconnect with Ghanaians and deal with issues affecting their daily lives.” The 2028 voter will not assess Bawumia in a vacuum. They will see him as the standard-bearer of the NPP brand. If that brand is associated with poor economic management, internal bickering, or a lack of empathy, Bawumia will be burdened by that association. The “crowd” (the Ghanaian electorate) is increasingly sophisticated and will evaluate the entire package.

Practical Advice: How the NPP Can Rebuild Its Flag

Moving from diagnosis to prescription, Dr. Bomfeh’s counsel implies a multi-front strategy for the NPP. Rebuilding the “flag” is a deliberate, long-term project that must begin immediately, irrespective of the 2024 election outcome.

1. Achieve Genuine, Visible Unity

This is the immediate post-primary task. It requires more than a unity press conference. It demands:

• Inclusive Structures: Integrating key primary rivals and their supporters into the national campaign committee, strategy teams, and grassroots mobilization efforts with real influence.
• Public Displays of Concord: Joint appearances by Bawumia and his former opponents, with a consistent message of collective purpose. The tone must be collaborative, not triumphant.
• Addressing Grievances: Privately and transparently addressing any specific complaints from losing camps to prevent sabotage from within.

2. Execute a Strategic Rebranding Campaign

The party must consciously reshape its public identity.

• Narrative Shift: Move from a narrative of “we have the experience” to “we have learned, we have listened, and we have a fresh plan for all Ghanaians.” Acknowledge past shortcomings without self-flagellation.
• Face of the Party: Deploy a diverse range of party communicators—young, female, from various regions and socio-economic backgrounds—to counter the “elite” stereotype.
• Symbolism and Messaging: Review all campaign visuals, slogans, and manifestos to ensure they project inclusivity, hope, and concrete solutions.

3. Anchor Politics in Daily Realities

As Dr. Bomfeh stressed, the party must show it “understands the issues people are grappling with.”

• Ground-Level Listening Tours: Bawumia and other top leaders must embark on extensive, unscripted visits to markets, factories, farms, and community centers to listen, not just lecture.
• Policy Translation: Every major policy proposal must be accompanied by a clear, simple explanation of how it will lower the price of kenkey, improve access to healthcare, or create jobs for the youth.
• Empathy in Communication: Leadership rhetoric must consistently acknowledge the public’s pain points (like the cost of living) before presenting solutions.

4. Ensure Message-Action Alignment

“The message and the messenger must align.” If the NPP campaigns on anti-corruption, its record and internal disciplinary actions must be impeccable. If it campaigns on job creation, its economic policies must demonstrably prioritize employment. Any hypocrisy will be seized upon by opponents and erode trust instantly.

FAQ: Addressing Common Questions

Q1: Is Dr. Bomfeh saying Bawumia cannot win in 2028?

A: Not necessarily. His argument is conditional. Bawumia could win, but only if the NPP successfully undertakes a major rehabilitation of its public image and internal cohesion. The candidate is a necessary component, but the party’s condition is the determining factor.

Q2: How is this different from normal post-primary party building?

A: Dr. Bomfeh’s metaphor suggests the problem is more fundamental than routine healing. The “flag” is described as having “punches,” implying deep-seated, structural flaws in perception and unity that go beyond the typical wounds of a primary contest. This requires a more profound and strategic rebranding effort.

Q3: What if the NPP wins the 2024 election? Does this analysis still hold?

A: Absolutely, and perhaps with more urgency. If the NPP retains power in 2024, the 2028 election will be a referendum on its second term performance. The need to “rebuild the symbol” would then be about managing the “incumbency fatigue” factor, proving that the party can evolve and address new challenges, and preventing the flag from becoming a symbol of a tired, out-of-touch government.

Q4: Can the NPP realistically change its public image in just two years?

A: Significant change is possible within a two-year window if the effort is sustained, resource-intensive, and authentic. It requires a coordinated campaign involving all party stakeholders, consistent messaging, and demonstrable actions that match the new narrative. Half-measures will fail.

Q5: Is the NPP the only party that faces this “flag vs. bearer” challenge?

A: No. This is a universal political dynamic. A popular candidate from an unpopular party (a tattered flag) will struggle. Conversely, a less charismatic candidate from a deeply beloved party (a pristine flag) can overperform. The challenge is to optimize both elements simultaneously.

Conclusion: The Imperative of Rebuilding

Dr. Kwabena Bomfeh Jnr’s metaphor is a masterclass in political simplification without being simplistic. It distills a complex electoral equation into an intuitive image: a flagbearer is only as strong as the flag they carry. For Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and the NPP, the path to 2028 is now clear. The immediate focus must shift from celebrating the primary victory to undertaking the gritty, unglamorous work of party rehabilitation. This involves mending fences, rebranding the party’s public face, and forging a genuine emotional connection with the Ghanaian electorate. The “punches” in the flag must be fixed. If the NPP succeeds, Bawumia will bear a vibrant, unifying symbol that can inspire voters. If it fails, he will be saddled with a tattered banner, making his personal fight for the presidency an uphill, and likely losing, battle. The work of rebuilding begins now.