Introduction

With the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearership primaries fast approaching, the political atmosphere in Ghana is charged with anticipation. According to the latest polling data released by the reputable survey firm Global InfoAnalytics, former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has surged into a commanding lead, significantly narrowing the gap required to secure the party’s nomination in a single round of voting. This comprehensive analysis explores the latest figures, regional breakdowns, and the implications of these findings for the upcoming election.

The data indicates a decisive shift in momentum favoring Dr. Bawumia, who now stands just shy of the critical 50% plus one threshold required to win the primaries outright. As the election approaches, the dynamics within the party and the behavior of undecided delegates will be the focal points of political observers.

Key Points

Background

The New Patriotic Party (NPP) is preparing for a crucial internal election to select its presidential candidate for the upcoming general elections. Historically, NPP primaries are highly competitive, often characterized by intense lobbying, regional alliances, and policy debates. The race to succeed President Nana Akufo-Addo has seen several prominent figures throw their hats in the ring, but the contest has largely been framed as a two-horse race between Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and Member of Parliament for Assin Central, Kennedy Agyapong.

The Role of Polling Agencies

Global InfoAnalytics has established itself as a key voice in Ghana’s political discourse, providing data-driven insights into voter behavior. Their “committed voter” surveys are designed to filter out casual observers and focus on delegates likely to participate in the voting process. The release of their final pre-election prediction serves as a barometer for the mood within the party’s grassroots and electoral college.

Analysis

The latest figures from Global InfoAnalytics represent a pivotal moment in the NPP primaries. Dr. Bawumia’s rise to 48% is not merely a statistical increment; it signals a consolidation of support that could be difficult for his opponents to overcome in the final days of the campaign.

The “Undecided” Factor

The most critical variable in this election is the 21% of respondents who declined to disclose their voting intentions. In political polling, this segment is often referred to as the “silent vote.” Global InfoAnalytics notes that Dr. Bawumia only requires 2% of this undisclosed pool to cross the 50% threshold. Given that he currently commands a massive lead, it is statistically probable that a portion of these undecided voters will lean towards the perceived frontrunner to avoid a runoff or simply align with the momentum.

Regional Dynamics

Dr. Bawumia’s lead in 14 out of 16 regions demonstrates a broad-based appeal that transcends ethnic and geographic lines, which is crucial for a general election. While trailing in the Central and Volta Regions—strongholds for his main rival and the opposition NDC respectively—his dominance in other key regions suggests a successful consolidation of the party’s base. Kennedy Agyapong’s decline to 25% suggests that while he retains a solid core of support, he has not been able to expand his coalition sufficiently to challenge the frontrunner’s momentum.

Comparison with Previous Polls

Comparing the current data to previous ballots shows a clear trend: the race is tightening around the top candidate while support for lower-tier candidates evaporates. The drop in numbers for Kennedy Agyapong, juxtaposed with Bawumia’s rise, indicates a consolidation of the “anti-establishment” or “change” vote that was previously split among various candidates.

Practical Advice

For political analysts, campaign teams, and party delegates, interpreting these numbers requires a nuanced understanding of Ghanaian electoral politics.

For Campaign Strategists

Focusing on the Undecided: With 21% of the vote still in flux, the final week of campaigning is critical. While Dr. Bawumia’s camp may feel confident, the mathematical possibility of a runoff remains until the votes are cast. His team should focus on turning out every potential supporter. Conversely, the Agyapong campaign must work to mobilize the remaining undecided voters and potentially challenge the polling methodology to energize their base.

For Voters and Delegates

Delegates should rely on official party communications and verified news sources for information regarding polling stations and voting procedures. As the election nears, misinformation often spreads rapidly. It is essential to verify the sources of information before making decisions.

For Observers

Observers should note that polls are snapshots in time, not guarantees of results. However, a lead of this magnitude, so close to the election, is historically indicative of a victory. The focus should shift to the margin of victory and the unity of the party post-primaries.

FAQ

Conclusion

The latest data from Global InfoAnalytics paints a picture of a frontrunner who has successfully consolidated support just days before the crucial vote. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s surge to 48% places him in a commanding position to secure the NPP flagbearership in the first round. However, the 21% of undeclared votes serves as a reminder that in politics, nothing is certain until the ballots are counted. As the party looks toward the general election, the focus will soon shift from internal competition to national unity and the strategy required to retain power.

Sources

• Global InfoAnalytics: “NPP Primaries Survey Results” (2026).
• Life Pulse Daily: “Bawumia takes large jump in opposition to sector in NPP primaries” (2026).
• New Patriotic Party (NPP) Official Guidelines for Primaries.