ECOWAS Faces Hurdles in Stabilizing Guinea-Bissau: Prof Kwesi Aning Warns of Deepening West Africa Instability

Delve into the Guinea-Bissau political crisis following the November 2025 army coup, where security expert Prof Kwesi Aning critiques ECOWAS’s effectiveness. This guide breaks down the events, expert analysis, and regional impacts for a clear understanding of West African democracy challenges.

Introduction

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) plays a pivotal role in promoting stability across West Africa, yet its efforts in addressing the Guinea-Bissau crisis have drawn sharp criticism. On November 27, 2025, during Joy FM’s Super Morning Show, renowned security expert Prof Kwesi Aning voiced skepticism about ECOWAS’s ability to restore steadiness in Guinea-Bissau after an army coup erupted on November 26. This event followed peaceful presidential and legislative elections on November 23, highlighting recurring patterns of political instability in the nation.

Guinea-Bissau, a small West African country with a history of coups since independence in 1974, exemplifies broader challenges to democracy in the region. Prof Aning’s comments underscore concerns over ECOWAS’s track record, Ghana’s strong condemnation, and potential ripple effects across West Africa. This article provides a pedagogical breakdown of the Guinea-Bissau coup 2025, ECOWAS Guinea-Bissau interventions, and lessons for regional governance.

Analysis

Prof Kwesi Aning’s Core Critique of ECOWAS

Prof Kwesi Aning, a prominent Ghanaian security analyst and former Director at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre, argued that ECOWAS has failed to fulfill its primary mandates. He stated, “I believe ECOWAS, as the lead establishment for resolving the Guinea-Bissau crisis, is a no, no, as it has failed to reach its number one intention.” This reflects ECOWAS’s supplementary protocol on democracy and good governance, adopted in 2001, which aims to prevent unconstitutional changes of government but has faced implementation gaps in cases like Mali, Burkina Faso, and now Guinea-Bissau.

Aning highlighted how the army takeover exacerbates Guinea-Bissau’s deteriorating democracy, warning of “substantial deepening instability” in the sub-region. He linked this to larger issues: questioning democracy’s utility, technological advances’ role in governance, corruption, and transparency deficits. Historically, Guinea-Bissau has endured at least nine coup attempts since 1974, including successful ones in 1980, 1998, and 2003, often tied to drug trafficking and elite power struggles.

Ghana’s Official Response to the Coup

Ghana’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on November 26, 2025, condemning the coup as a “direct attack on democracy” and an attempt to overturn the people’s will. The government expressed profound concern over the disruption of the electoral process, which halted result announcements scheduled for November 27. Ghana demanded the immediate restoration of constitutional order, resolution of disputes through legal channels, and protection for civilians, foreign nationals, and the ECOWAS Election Observation Mission.

This response aligns with Ghana’s commitment to democratic norms, as seen in its own stable transitions since 1992. It also pressures ECOWAS to act decisively, given the bloc’s zero-tolerance policy on coups outlined in its 2001 protocol.

Summary

In summary, the Guinea-Bissau army coup on November 26, 2025, just days after elections, has intensified scrutiny on ECOWAS’s role in West Africa political instability. Prof Kwesi Aning’s analysis on Joy FM reveals ECOWAS’s historical shortcomings, predicting prolonged unrest unless root causes like corruption are addressed. Ghana’s condemnation reinforces calls for democratic restoration, setting the stage for regional deliberations.

Key Points

Practical Advice

For Regional Stakeholders and Policymakers

To navigate the ECOWAS Guinea-Bissau challenges, ECOWAS member states should prioritize hybrid mediation models combining diplomacy with targeted sanctions. Policymakers can draw from successful interventions like Liberia’s 2003 peace process, where ECOWAS deployed ECOMOG forces alongside UN support. Implement early warning systems via the ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network (EWERN) to detect pre-coup tensions, such as elite rivalries in Guinea-Bissau.

For Civil Society and International Partners

Civil society organizations should advocate for transparent electoral reforms, including digital voter registries to counter fraud allegations. International donors like the EU and African Union can provide technical aid for security sector reform (SSR) in Guinea-Bissau, focusing on professionalizing the military to prevent future coups. Citizens in unstable nations can engage in voter education to bolster democratic resilience.

Media and Analysts’ Role

Journalists covering West Africa political instability should verify sources amid disinformation, as seen in past Guinea-Bissau crises. Analysts like Prof Aning recommend data-driven reporting on corruption indices from Transparency International to inform public discourse.

Points of Caution

While addressing the Guinea-Bissau coup, exercise caution against over-relying on military solutions, as past ECOWAS interventions sometimes prolonged conflicts. Beware of external influences like narco-trafficking networks, which fund Guinea-Bissau’s instability per UN Office on Drugs and Crime reports. Avoid underestimating youth unemployment (over 50% in Guinea-Bissau) as a coup driver. Finally, regional fatigue could weaken ECOWAS unity, as evidenced by delayed responses in recent Sahel coups.

Comparison

Guinea-Bissau Coup vs. Past West African Coups

Compared to Mali’s 2020 and 2021 coups, Guinea-Bissau’s 2025 event shares election-related triggers but differs in scale—lacking jihadist insurgencies. ECOWAS suspended Mali promptly, imposing sanctions, yet struggled with compliance, similar to its Guinea-Bissau hesitancy. In contrast, The Gambia’s 2016 crisis saw swift ECOWAS military pressure leading to democratic handover, a success model absent here due to internal divisions.

ECOWAS Interventions: Successes and Failures

ECOWAS excelled in Sierra Leone (1997-2000) via ECOMOG, restoring order. However, in Guinea-Bissau’s 2012 crisis, mediation failed amid repeated pacts like the 2012 Transitional Pact, mirroring current doubts raised by Prof Aning. This comparison reveals ECOWAS’s strength in collective action but weakness in sustained enforcement against recidivist states.

Legal Implications

Under ECOWAS’s 2001 Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance, the Guinea-Bissau army coup constitutes an unconstitutional change, triggering automatic suspension of membership and potential sanctions. Article 45 mandates restoration of constitutional order within six months, with non-compliance risking further isolation. Ghana’s statement invokes these provisions, aligning with international law like the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (2007). Violators face ICC scrutiny if civilian rights are abused, as in past African coups. ECOWAS must adhere to these to maintain credibility, though enforcement remains politically contested.

Conclusion

Prof Kwesi Aning’s incisive critique illuminates ECOWAS’s challenges in the Guinea-Bissau crisis, where an army coup threatens West Africa’s democratic gains. As Ghana and others demand action, the path forward demands robust implementation of protocols, anti-corruption measures, and inclusive governance. This episode in Guinea-Bissau political instability serves as a stark reminder: without addressing root causes, coups will persist, undermining ECOWAS’s vision of a stable sub-region. Stakeholders must act decisively to prevent a cascade of instability.

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