Electricity Supply to Nigerians from National Grid Drops Significantly

Published on: January 11, 2026

Introduction

On January 11, 2026, data from Nigeria’s national grid operator revealed a concerning decline in electricity generation. The total electricity supplied to Nigerians through the national grid dropped to 3,810 megawatts (MW). This marks a significant decrease from 4,330 MW reported just a week earlier on January 5, 2026. The 520 MW drop in less than a week underscores the fragility of Nigeria’s power infrastructure and raises urgent questions about energy security and sector reforms.

This article explains the causes, implications, and potential solutions to Nigeria’s persistent power supply challenges. It also explores the growing trend of businesses seeking independent power solutions, known as captive power, as an alternative to the unreliable national grid.

Key Points

Generation Capacity Declines

The total electricity generation recorded on January 11, 2026, was 3,810 MW. This is the amount of power transmitted to the 11 electricity distribution companies (DisCos) for delivery to end-users across Nigeria. The drop of 520 MW in just six days represents a 12% reduction in available supply, significantly impacting homes and businesses.

Recent Grid Collapse

The decline follows a major grid collapse on December 29, 2025, which plunged the entire country into darkness. Grid collapses are not uncommon in Nigeria, often caused by technical failures, inadequate maintenance, or insufficient gas supply to power plants. The December 2025 incident disrupted daily life and economic activities nationwide.

Rise in Captive Power Applications

According to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), 20 companies applied for captive power generation licenses in the third quarter of 2025. Captive power refers to independent electricity generation facilities owned and operated by private companies to meet their own energy needs, bypassing the national grid. This trend reflects a lack of confidence in the national power system and highlights the urgent need for sector reform.

Background

History of Nigeria’s Power Sector

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, has struggled with electricity supply for decades. Despite being a major oil and gas producer, the country generates less than 5,000 MW on average for a population exceeding 200 million. This is far below the estimated 30,000 MW needed to meet current demand and support industrialization.

The power sector was historically state-controlled through the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN). In 2013, the government initiated a major reform, privatizing generation and distribution assets. However, the transmission system remains under federal control through the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN).

Challenges in the Sector

Several factors contribute to the persistent power supply issues:

• Infrastructure Deficiencies: Aging transmission and distribution networks suffer from high technical losses and frequent breakdowns.
• Gas Supply Constraints: Most power plants rely on natural gas, but supply is often interrupted due to pipeline vandalism, maintenance issues, or contractual disputes.
• Financial Constraints: DisCos face significant financial challenges, including high technical and commercial losses, low tariff recovery, and limited investment capacity.
• Policy and Regulatory Issues: Inconsistent policies, delayed tariff reviews, and regulatory uncertainties hinder investment and operational efficiency.

Analysis

Impact on the Economy

Unreliable electricity supply is a major constraint to economic growth and industrial development in Nigeria. Businesses, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs), rely heavily on expensive diesel generators, increasing production costs and reducing competitiveness. The recent drop in grid supply further exacerbates these challenges, potentially leading to job losses and reduced productivity.

Impact on Daily Life

For ordinary Nigerians, power outages affect access to clean water, healthcare services, education, and communication. Hospitals often depend on backup generators, but fuel costs and maintenance can be prohibitive. Students struggle to study after dark, and households face increased expenses on alternative lighting and cooking solutions.

Environmental and Social Implications

The widespread use of diesel and petrol generators contributes to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Noise pollution from generators also affects urban communities. Moreover, the lack of reliable electricity perpetuates energy poverty, particularly in rural areas where grid access is limited.

Captive Power: A Growing Trend

The surge in applications for captive power licenses indicates a shift toward self-reliance among large consumers. While this provides a short-term solution for individual companies, it may reduce the financial viability of the national grid by decreasing the customer base. However, it also presents an opportunity to develop decentralized energy systems and promote renewable energy adoption.

Practical Advice

For Businesses

• Invest in Energy Efficiency: Reducing energy consumption through efficient equipment and practices can lower costs and dependency on generators.
• Consider Renewable Energy: Solar power systems, especially when combined with battery storage, offer a sustainable and increasingly affordable alternative to diesel generators.
• Explore Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs): Businesses can contract with independent power producers to secure a more reliable and potentially cheaper electricity supply.

For Households

• Adopt Solar Solutions: Solar home systems and solar lanterns provide clean and reliable lighting and can power small appliances.
• Use Energy-Efficient Appliances: LED bulbs, energy-efficient fans, and refrigerators consume less power and reduce generator fuel costs.
• Support Community Initiatives: Community-based solar projects can provide shared access to electricity at lower costs.

For Policymakers

• Accelerate Grid Infrastructure Investment: Prioritize upgrading transmission and distribution networks to reduce losses and improve reliability.
• Ensure Gas Supply Security: Address pipeline vandalism and improve gas infrastructure to ensure consistent fuel supply to power plants.
• Implement Cost-Reflective Tariffs: Gradual tariff adjustments are necessary to ensure financial sustainability while protecting vulnerable consumers through targeted subsidies.
• Promote Renewable Energy: Develop policies and incentives to encourage investment in solar, wind, and hydroelectric power.
• Enhance Regulatory Oversight: Strengthen NERC’s capacity to monitor performance, enforce standards, and resolve disputes efficiently.

FAQ

Conclusion

The drop in Nigeria’s electricity supply to 3,810 MW in January 2026 is a stark reminder of the deep-seated challenges in the country’s power sector. While the immediate cause may be technical or operational, the underlying issues are systemic and require comprehensive reforms.

Addressing Nigeria’s energy crisis demands a multi-faceted approach, including infrastructure investment, policy consistency, financial sustainability, and the integration of renewable energy sources. The growing interest in captive power reflects both the urgency of the situation and the potential for innovative solutions.

Ultimately, ensuring reliable and affordable electricity for all Nigerians is not just a technical challenge but a fundamental requirement for economic development, social progress, and improved quality of life. Stakeholders across government, private sector, and civil society must collaborate to build a resilient and inclusive energy future.