Ghana Fuel Prices to Rise Again from February 16, 2026, Driven by Cedi Depreciation

Ghanaian motorists and businesses are set to face another round of fuel price adjustments starting February 16, 2026. According to the latest pricing outlook from the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), the depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against major trading currencies, coupled with rising international petroleum product costs, will push pump prices upward. This adjustment, the second in recent months, highlights the persistent pressure on local fuel pricing from exchange rate volatility and global market dynamics. This article provides a comprehensive, SEO-optimized breakdown of the projected increases, the underlying economic mechanisms, regulatory frameworks, and actionable advice for consumers and businesses navigating this periodic cost surge.

Key Points: The February 2026 Fuel Price Adjustment

The imminent price changes are based on the February 2026 pricing window. The primary driver is the cedi’s loss in value, which increases the local currency cost of importing refined petroleum products. Below is a summary of the projected increases and new price floors.

• Effective Date: February 16, 2026.
• Primary Cause: Depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi (approximately 4% against the USD in January 2026) and increases in international crude and refined product prices.
• Projected Price Increases:
  • Petroleum Motor Spirit (Petrol/PMS): Up to 1.97%, reaching an estimated GHC 11.97 per litre.
  • Diesel/AGO: Up to 2.73%, reaching an estimated GH¢13.09 per litre.
  • Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Up to 3.26%, reaching an estimated GH¢13.93 per kilogram.
• Moderating Factor: An existing oversupply of refined petroleum products in the local market may limit the extent of the hike at the pumps.
• Regulatory Price Floors (Minimum Prices): The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has mandated minimum ex-pump prices to ensure fair competition and industry viability:
  • PMS: Not less than GHC 10.24/litre
  • AGO (Diesel): Not less than GHS 11.34/litre
  • LPG: Not less than GHS 9.43/kg
  • MGO Local: Not less than GHS 10.45/litre
  • Kerosene: Not less than GHS 9.21/litre
• Industry Dynamics: Intense competition may lead some Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to delay or absorb part of the increase, while others will adjust prices immediately on February 16.

Background: How Fuel Pricing Works in Ghana

To understand the February adjustment, it is essential to grasp the framework that determines fuel prices at the pump in Ghana. The system is a structured, formula-based model designed to reflect actual importation costs and ensure a sustainable downstream petroleum sector.

The Role of COMAC and the Pricing Formula

The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) is the industry association for OMCs and LPG Marketing Companies (LPGMCs). It computes the “ex-pump price floor” bi-weekly using a standardized formula approved by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA). This formula, known as the Petroleum Products Pricing Guidelines (PPPG), factors in:

• Free on Board (FOB) Price: The cost of crude oil or refined products at the source (e.g., Rotterdam for petrol/diesel).
• Freight and Insurance Costs: The cost to ship products to Ghana.
• Exchange Rate: The cedi’s value against the US dollar, as all international transactions are dollar-denominated.
• Taxes and Levies: Including the newly introduced Energy Debt Recovery Levy, Price Stabilization and Recovery Levy (PSRL), and other statutory charges.
• Margin Components: The allowed operating margins for Bulk Import, Distribution, and Export Companies (BIDECs), OMCs, and dealers.
• Premium for International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs): An additional margin for entities that source products internationally.

COMAC’s published “price floor” is the minimum legally permissible selling price. Individual OMCs, operating in a liberalized market, can set their own ex-pump prices above this floor based on competition, location, and brand strategy.

The Cedi’s Recent Performance

The Bank of Ghana’s January 2026 economic and fiscal report indicated that the cedi depreciated by approximately 4% against the US dollar during the month. Data from commercial banks suggested a slightly higher depreciation of about 4.16%. This depreciation trend began around January 1, 2026, fueled by:

• Increased Corporate Dollar Demand: Businesses restocking inventories and operations for the new year required more foreign exchange.
• Corporate Dividend Payments: Foreign-owned companies repatriating profits to their parent entities abroad increased demand for dollars.
• Underlying Economic Pressures: Persistent trade deficits, debt service obligations, and inflation pressures can weaken the local currency over time.

Since the fuel pricing formula uses the exchange rate directly, a weaker cedi immediately translates to higher local currency costs for the same volume of imported fuel.

International Oil Market Trends

Global petroleum markets have also turned bullish. According to COMAC’s data for the February 1 pricing window:

• Brent Crude Oil: Prices surged by over 5%, trading near USD 70 per barrel. This benchmark price influences the cost of all refined products.
• Refined Product Increases:
  • Petrol (PMS): +4.17%
  • Gas Oil/Diesel (AGO): +5.57%
  • LPG: +6.18%

The confluence of a falling cedi and rising global product prices creates a “double whammy” effect on import costs, which the pricing formula must capture.

Analysis: Deconstructing the Price Hike Drivers

The projected February 2026 increase is not an isolated event but a symptom of interconnected local and global economic forces. A deeper analysis reveals the specific mechanisms at play.

The Exchange Rate as the Primary Amplifier

Ghana is a net importer of refined petroleum products. Therefore, the cedi-dollar exchange rate is the single most volatile and impactful variable in the fuel pricing equation. A 4% depreciation means that, all else being equal, the cedi cost of a barrel of oil or a litre of imported petrol increases by nearly the same percentage. COMAC’s data showed that within the February pricing window itself, the cedi weakened from GHC 10.90 to GHC 10.98 per USD—a 0.73% drop in just a few days, underscoring the实时 (real-time) nature of the pressure.

The Global Commodity Price Factor

While the exchange rate is the dominant short-term driver, the sustained rise in crude oil (above $70/barrel) and refined product prices sets a higher baseline cost. OPEC+ production policies, global economic recovery forecasts, and geopolitical tensions in key producing regions all contribute to this upward trajectory. The larger percentage increases in LPG (+6.18%) and diesel (+5.57%) compared to petrol (+4.17%) reflect specific supply-demand dynamics in those particular product markets.

The Moderating Influence of Local Market Oversupply

COMAC’s statement that “the present oversupply of refined petroleum products in the local market is expected to moderate these hikes” is a crucial nuance. It indicates that the physical availability of products within Ghana’s storage and distribution network is high. This oversupply can lead to:

• Competitive Discounting: OMCs may choose to sell closer to the price floor or even absorb minor cost increases to gain market share, rather than passing the full computed cost to consumers.
• Inventory Management: Companies with large stocks purchased at previous, lower exchange rates may delay price adjustments until those inventories are depleted.
• Blunted Impact: The final retail increase may be lower than the pure formula calculation suggests, manifesting as “marginal increases” as COMAC noted.

Regulatory Price Floors: Ensuring a Viable Industry

The NPA-mandated price floors are a critical safeguard. They prevent destructive price wars that could drive OMCs out of business, compromise safety standards, and lead to supply shortages. The floors are calculated to cover the minimum import costs, statutory levies, and a bare operating margin. Adherence is not optional; it is a legal requirement under the Petroleum (Downstream) Regulations. Non-compliance can result in sanctions from the NPA, including license revocation. The distinction between the “floor” and the final “ex-pump price” is where competition and corporate strategy operate.

Practical Advice: Navigating the February Fuel Price Increase

For consumers, transport operators, and businesses reliant on fuel, periodic price increases necessitate proactive adjustments. Here is actionable advice to mitigate the financial impact.

For Individual Motorists and Households

• Review and Optimize Travel: Combine errands to reduce total mileage. Use navigation apps to avoid congested routes that increase fuel consumption.
• Adopt Fuel-Efficient Driving Habits: Avoid aggressive acceleration and braking, maintain steady speeds, and ensure tires are properly inflated. These practices can improve fuel economy by 10-20%.
• Consider Alternative Transport: For short urban trips, consider walking, cycling, or public transport (trotro, bus) where feasible and safe.
• Carpooling: Organize carpools with colleagues or neighbors for regular commutes to split fuel costs.
• Vehicle Maintenance: Ensure regular engine servicing, clean air filters, and use the correct motor oil. A well-tuned engine runs more efficiently.
• Monitor Prices: Fuel prices can vary slightly between OMCs and even between stations of the same brand. Use apps or word-of-mouth to find the cheapest options in your area, but balance cost with perceived quality and reliability.

For Businesses and Transport Operators

• Review Logistics and Routing: Optimize delivery routes using software to minimize deadhead miles (empty return trips).
• Fleet Management: Implement telematics to monitor driver behavior (idling, speeding) and vehicle performance. Schedule maintenance proactively.
• Fuel Hedging (if applicable): Larger companies with significant fuel exposure may explore financial hedging instruments, though this is complex and requires expert advice.
• Cost Pass-Through Clauses: Review contracts with clients. Where possible, include clauses that allow for price adjustments based on fuel cost indices to protect profit margins.
• Explore Alternatives: For suitable applications, consider the long-term Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of electric vehicles (EVs) or hybrid models, despite higher upfront costs. Factor in lower “fuel” and maintenance expenses.
• Budget Re-allocation: Adjust operational budgets to account for higher fuel costs, potentially reallocating funds from less critical areas.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

When exactly will the new fuel prices take effect?

The new prices, based on the COMAC February 16, 2026, pricing window, are scheduled to take effect from 00:01 hours on Friday, February 16, 2026. However, individual OMCs may implement the change at the start of their business day on that date.

Why is the cedi depreciating, and can the Bank of Ghana stop it?

The cedi’s value is determined by market forces of supply and demand for dollars. The recent depreciation is attributed to increased corporate demand for imports and dividend repatriation. The Bank of Ghana (BoG) can intervene by selling dollars from its reserves to increase supply and support the cedi. The BoG has stated it remains committed to maintaining price stability while supporting economic activity, but its ability to halt depreciation is constrained by the level of its international reserves and broader macroeconomic fundamentals. The BoG’s January report shows it is monitoring the situation closely.

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