2026 Ghana Budget and Policy Statement: Minority’s Reaction, Key Critiques, and Path to Real Economic Growth

Introduction

Ghana’s 2026 Budget and Policy Statement, themed “Resetting for Growth, Jobs and Economic Transformation,” marks the second annual fiscal plan under the NDC government. Presented in Parliament, it claims to build on macroeconomic stabilization achieved previously. However, the Minority in Parliament has issued a pointed critique, arguing that the budget prioritizes blame-shifting over accountability and fails to deliver on promises of job creation and economic revival.

This analysis breaks down the Minority’s response to the 2026 Ghana Budget, highlighting under-execution of investments, revenue shortfalls, and implementation gaps in flagship programs like the 24-hour economy and Big Push. By examining verifiable data from the budget documents, we provide a pedagogical overview of Ghana’s fiscal policy 2026, helping readers understand core economic concepts such as fiscal discipline, public investment multipliers, and debt sustainability.

Analysis

The Minority’s examination reveals a budget that maintains short-term stability optics at the expense of long-term growth. Key data points from the 2026 statement underscore systemic issues in execution and planning.

The Illusion of Fiscal Discipline

Parliament approved investment spending at 1.5% of GDP for 2025, but actual execution reached only about 0.5% year-to-date. This gap equates to roughly US$1.1 billion in foregone public investment. Using IMF-consistent multipliers, this under-execution reduced effective demand by 0.514% of GDP, shaved GDP growth by approximately 0.41% (US$469 million), and caused revenue losses of US$75 million.

Specific shortfalls include goods and services spending at GHS3.8 billion against a programmed GHS5.1 billion (56% of annual allocation) and capital expenditure (CAPEX) at GHS11 billion versus GHS26.6 billion programmed (34% of annual GHS32.6 billion). These reflect revenue shortfalls, auction under-subscriptions, and debt service pressures, not efficiency gains.

Growth Without Jobs or Structural Depth

First-half 2025 GDP growth of 6.3% was services-led (ICT, financial services), with construction and manufacturing lagging. Investment at 3.6% of GDP in 2026 remains insufficient for transformation, dwarfed by wages (5.7%), interest (3.6%), and statutory transfers (4%). The cash deficit is 4% of GDP, with 4.4% domestic borrowing crowding out private sector credit.

Flagship initiatives falter: The 24-hour economy, promised as a 1-3-3 job model (one job, three people, three shifts), receives token GHS90-110 million despite needing US$4 billion total (government share US$300-400 million). No tax incentives were announced. The Big Push, allocated GHS13 billion in 2025, saw only GHS7.6 billion committed by July, yet the Minister claimed GHS63 billion in road contracts generating 490,000 jobs—exceeding even combined 2025-2026 allocations (GHS43 billion).

Revenue Shortfalls and Market Confidence Erosion

Q1-Q3 2025 revenues totaled GHS154.9 billion against GHS162.6 billion programmed (shortfall GHS7.7 billion), with tax revenue at GHS124.6 billion versus GHS133.5 billion. Of 45 auctions in 2025, 25 failed (55% failure rate), yielding GH¢17.5 billion shortfalls. The GSE Composite Index fell 0.69% during budget week.

Currency Stability and Reserves Pressure

Cedi appreciation from GHS14/US$ (January 2025) to GHS11/US$ stems from US$8 billion Bank of Ghana interventions using NPP-built reserves (nearly US$9 billion by end-2024). The Gold Purchase Programme, initiated under NPP, anchors FX policy. Recent BoG framework admits past interventions were non-transparent and unsustainable.

Summary

The Minority views the 2026 Ghana Budget as growthless, jobless, and minimalist, perpetuating under-execution while claiming prudence. Stabilization builds on NPP-IMF foundations without new strategies. Risks include revenue optimism (16.8% of GDP target), high domestic borrowing, and unaddressed flagship program gaps, threatening debt sustainability and private sector growth.

Key Points

Practical Advice

To achieve genuine fiscal discipline in Ghana’s economy, the Minority proposes actionable reforms rooted in transparency and sustainability:

• Full Budget Execution: Implement Parliament-approved investments with quarterly milestone reporting.
• Revenue Base Broadening: Advance tax formalization and digitalization for stable inflows.
• Debt Maturity Extension: Shift from short-term T-bills to longer maturities, freeing private credit.
• CAPEX Floor: Set minimum capital spending tied to verified outcomes.
• Impact Tracking: Monitor public investments’ effects on jobs and revenues.

These steps, if adopted, could balance stability with productivity-led growth, leveraging public investment’s high employment multipliers in construction and supply chains.

Points of Caution

Ghana’s 2026 fiscal policy carries verifiable risks:

• Revenue Risks: 18.8% non-oil tax growth assumption may trigger mid-year taxes, arrears, or cuts—as in 2025 petroleum hikes.
• Financing Gaps: Auction failures could force T-bill reliance, hiking rollover risks.
• Debt Pressures: Lower GDP base raises debt-to-GDP despite deficit narrowing.
• Program Delays: Repeated allocations (e.g., National Coders, Women’s Bank) signal non-implementation.
• External Vulnerabilities: Goldbod pre-financing by BoG risks IMF program breaches; unquantified SOE liabilities add fragility.

Stakeholders should monitor Q1 2026 execution closely to avoid 2025 repeats.

Comparison

NPP vs. NDC Achievements

NPP laid stabilization foundations; NDC maintains without scaling to transformation.

Legal Implications

The 2026 Budget raises concerns under Ghana’s Public Financial Management (PFM) Act. Awarding GHS63 billion in contracts without corresponding allocations or commitment authorizations contravenes PFM rules on budgeted contracting. BoG pre-financing Goldbod purchases risks violating IMF program prohibitions on central bank government financing. Fiscal Council and debt cap laws, submitted under NPP, were repackaged—highlighting continuity but potential implementation lapses.

Conclusion

The Minority’s reaction underscores that Ghana’s 2026 Budget prioritizes short-term fiscal optics over substantive transformation. With low investment, optimistic revenues, and stalled flagships, it risks perpetuating jobless growth. True progress demands executing approved budgets, addressing structural gaps, and restoring market confidence. Ghanaians must demand accountability to unlock economic potential beyond slogans.

FAQ

Sources

• Life Pulse Daily: “Minority’s reaction to 2026 Budget and Policy Statement” (Published 2025-11-14).
• Ghana 2026 Budget and Policy Statement (Parliamentary documents).
• Bank of Ghana statements on FX interventions and Gold Purchase Programme.
• IMF ECF Programme reviews (2024-2025).
• Public Financial Management Act (Ghana).