Germany’s Merz Meets Xi in China: Decoding Europe’s Diplomatic Shift

In a significant diplomatic development, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on February 25-26, 2026. This high-stakes visit, occurring just weeks after similar trips by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, underscores a renewed and concerted European engagement with Beijing. The meetings, framed around bilateral relations and mutual interests, arrive at a pivotal moment for the world’s second and third-largest economies, whose intricate partnership is navigating an era of global economic fragmentation and strategic competition. This article provides a comprehensive, SEO-optimized analysis of Merz’s visit, exploring its background, implications, and the broader trend of European leaders re-engaging with China.

Introduction: The Timing and Significance of Merz’s Visit

Chancellor Merz’s trip to China marks his first state visit to the country since assuming office in May 2025. The invitation from Premier Li Qiang, confirmed by China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning, highlights the mutual desire to stabilize and recalibrate a relationship that has faced headwinds in recent years. Describing China and Germany as “all-round strategic partners,” the Chinese official emphasized that the “sound development” of their ties benefits both nations and aligns with global expectations.

This visit is not occurring in a vacuum. It is the third meeting between a European leader and President Xi in approximately six weeks, following the separate January 2026 visits of Prime Ministers Starmer and Carney. This clustering of high-level diplomacy suggests a coordinated, or at least parallel, European effort to engage Beijing directly on issues of trade, technology, and global governance. For Germany, whose economic model is deeply intertwined with Chinese markets and supply chains, this engagement is particularly crucial. The visit sets the stage for discussions that will shape not only German-Chinese relations but also the European Union’s collective approach towards China in the coming years.

Key Points: What to Expect from the Merz-Xi Talks

The official agenda for Chancellor Merz’s visit centers on bilateral relations and “problems of mutual passion,” a diplomatic term encompassing shared challenges. Based on statements from both Berlin and Beijing, the key points of discussion will likely include:

• Economic and Trade Relations: Addressing the recent dip in bilateral trade volume, market access barriers, and the future of German investments in China amidst Beijing’s push for technological self-reliance.
• Supply Chain Resilience: Discussing diversification and de-risking strategies, a core tenet of Germany’s 2023 China Strategy, which balances economic partnership with risk mitigation.
• Global and Regional Issues: Exchanges on international conflicts (e.g., Ukraine), climate change cooperation, and development finance.
• Technology and Standards: Navigating the competitive landscape in green tech, artificial intelligence, and industrial manufacturing, where both countries are leaders and rivals.
• Human Rights and Rule of Law: Merz, representing a more economically liberal but values-conscious CDU, is expected to raise concerns regarding human rights in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and civil society space, consistent with Germany’s stated policy.

Background: The Evolution of Germany-China Relations

To understand the current dynamics, one must look back at a relationship that has transformed from cautious normalization to deep economic interdependence, now facing strategic recalibration.

A Historical Partnership Forged in Diplomacy

Germany and the People’s Republic of China established diplomatic relations in 1972, a landmark move for both. For China, West Germany was a key gateway to European technology and capital. For Germany, China represented a vast future market. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, this relationship was primarily economic, with German engineering and industrial goods finding a hungry market in a reforming China. The political dimension grew steadily, with regular high-level visits and strategic dialogues.

The “Special Relationship” and Its Economic Core

For over a decade, China was Germany’s single largest trading partner for goods (2016-2023). In 2024, it slipped to second place behind the United States, with a total trade volume of approximately €245 billion. This economic symbiosis defines the partnership: German automakers, machinery manufacturers, and chemical companies rely on the Chinese market for a significant portion of their profits, while China’s export-oriented manufacturing model has long depended on German high-tech equipment and precision components. This created a powerful lobby in Germany for maintaining close ties, often referred to as a “special relationship” within Europe.

The Shift: From “Wandel durch Handel” to “De-risking”

The late 2010s saw a noticeable cooling. Factors included China’s more assertive foreign policy under Xi Jinping, its “Made in China 2025” industrial strategy seen as directly competing with German core industries, human rights concerns, and the realization of over-dependence in critical sectors. The German government’s 2023 Strategy on China officially redefined the relationship, stating China is simultaneously a “partner, competitor, and systemic rival.” The policy pivot moved from the old doctrine of Wandel durch Handel (change through trade) to one of “de-risking” and diversification, aligning closely with the EU’s own strategic outlook.

Analysis: Merz’s Visit in the Context of European Diplomacy

Chancellor Merz’s visit must be analyzed on three interconnected levels: the bilateral Germany-China axis, the broader EU-China relationship, and the emerging pattern of European bilateral engagement.

1. The Merz Factor: A New German Voice

Friedrich Merz, a former leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a former executive at BlackRock, brings a distinct profile compared to his predecessor, Olaf Scholz. Known for his pro-business stance and transatlanticist views, Merz is also a staunch advocate for a strong, unified European stance. He is likely to blend a clear-eyed focus on German economic interests with a firmer rhetorical stance on values and systemic competition. His meeting with Xi will test whether the German “de-risking” policy can be translated into a constructive dialogue that preserves economic benefits without conceding strategic ground.

2. The European Wave: Starmer, Carney, and Now Merz

The sequence of visits is striking. Prime Minister Starmer’s UK, post-Brexit and seeking a “reset” in its global role, engaged China on trade and climate. Prime Minister Carney’s Canada, facing its own economic pressures, also pursued dialogue. Now, the core EU power, Germany, follows suit. This suggests several things:

• Pragmatism Over Ideology: European leaders, regardless of domestic political color, are prioritizing direct engagement with the world’s second-largest economy to address tangible economic challenges.
• EU Coordination, Not Uniformity: While the EU sets a common “de-risking” framework, member states retain their own bilateral relationships and economic priorities. Germany’s visit may encourage others (like France or Italy) to schedule their own high-level talks.
• A Signal to Washington: This European diplomatic initiative subtly indicates that while Europe shares US concerns about China’s economic practices and geopolitical stance, it is unwilling to fully decouple and will pursue its own calibrated engagement strategy.

3. Beijing’s Calculated Welcome

China’s warm reception for these three leaders in quick succession is a diplomatic coup. It allows Beijing to:

• Project an image of being an open, cooperative global partner willing to engage.
• Exploit potential differences between European nations and the US, and between EU member states themselves.
• Secure short-term economic and political gains, such as new investment commitments or diplomatic support on issues like Taiwan.

Practical Advice: Implications for Businesses and Policymakers

The outcomes of Merz’s visit will have tangible consequences. Here is practical advice for key stakeholders:

For German and European Businesses

• Monitor Policy Clarity: Seek clear, written follow-ups from the German Foreign Ministry and Economics Ministry on any new bilateral agreements or understandings. Ambiguity is the enemy of long-term investment.
• Diversify, Don’t Panic: The official German policy remains de-risking, not decoupling. Businesses should continue planned diversification into Southeast Asia, India, or Turkey, but should not hastily abandon profitable and strategic Chinese operations without a viable alternative.
• Leverage Diplomacy: Use any improved diplomatic tone to advocate for a level playing field. Push for concrete outcomes on market access for German SMEs in services, finance, and green tech, areas where China has made nominal commitments but implementation is slow.

For Policymakers and Analysts

• Assess Deliverables: Scrutinize the joint statement post-visit. Look for specific, measurable commitments on issues like intellectual property protection, standard-setting cooperation, or joint research projects. Vague language about “deepening cooperation” is insufficient.
• Analyze the Tone: The public messaging from both sides will be revealing. Is it predominantly positive and cooperative, or are there pointed criticisms on human rights or industrial subsidies? The latter would indicate persistent friction.
• Watch for Sectoral Breakthroughs: Given Germany’s strengths, look for potential agreements in automotive e-mobility battery supply chains, hydrogen energy technology, or vocational training—areas where mutual benefit is clear.

FAQ: Answering Key Questions About the Visit

Q1: Is this visit a sign that Germany is abandoning its “de-risking” policy?

A: No. Engagement and de-risking are not mutually exclusive. The German government defines de-risking as reducing critical dependencies, not ending all economic exchange. High-level dialogue is a tool to manage the relationship within that framework, to clarify red lines, and to seek fairer conditions. The visit is an exercise in managing competition, not a reversal of policy.

Q2: How does this compare to Chancellor Scholz’s 2022 visit to China?

A: Scholz’s 2022 visit, his first, occurred in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and was heavily focused on urging China not to support Russia and on maintaining trade. Merz’s 2026 visit comes after years of policy recalibration in Berlin and Brussels. The context is now one of long-term strategic positioning. Merz is likely to be more explicit about the “competitor” and “systemic rival” aspects of the relationship while still pursuing partnership.

Q3: What are the biggest potential obstacles to a successful visit?

A: The primary obstacles are structural: China’s state-driven economic model, ongoing non-tariff barriers for German companies, persistent human rights issues, and the fundamental geopolitical divergence over issues like Taiwan and Russia. A “successful” visit may be measured by avoiding deterioration and identifying a few narrow cooperation projects, rather than achieving a major breakthrough on these core disagreements.

Q4: Will this lead to a new German-Chinese investment treaty?

A: A comprehensive, new bilateral investment treaty (BIT) is unlikely in the short term. The EU has been negotiating a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) with China since 2012, which is currently frozen. Germany would not pursue a separate national treaty that contradicts or undermines the EU’s common commercial policy. Any new economic agreements will likely be sector-specific memoranda of understanding within the existing EU framework.

Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Coexistence

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Beijing is a watershed moment in post-pandemic European diplomacy. It exemplifies the difficult balancing act facing Germany and its EU partners: how to maintain vital economic ties with China while managing the systemic risks posed by its political and economic model. The clustering of European leader visits signals a continent-wide effort to assert its own strategic autonomy, seeking engagement on its own terms rather than simply following the US lead.

The legacy of this visit will not be a single grand deal, but the tone it sets and the channels it maintains. It will test whether Germany can be an effective interlocutor, pushing for reciprocal market access and fair competition while keeping the lines of communication open on global challenges like climate change. For the Germany-China relationship, the era of unchallenged economic optimism is over. The new era is one of pragmatic, cautious, and critical engagement—a complex coexistence where partnership and competition must be managed simultaneously. The world will be watching to see if Merz and Xi can find a sustainable path forward for this crucial relationship.

Sources

• Federal Foreign Office of Germany. (2023). Federal Government Strategy on China. [Official Policy Document].
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. (2026, February 24). Regular Press Conference. [Transcript of Spokesperson Mao Ning’s briefing].
• German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). (2025). Foreign Trade: Germany’s Most Important Trading Partners.
• European Commission. (2023). EU-China: A Strategic Outlook. [Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament].
• Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany. (2025). Government Policy Statement. [Outline of the coalition government’s foreign policy priorities].
• BBC News. (2026, January 15). Keir Starmer holds talks with Xi Jinping in Beijing. [Report on UK Prime Minister’s visit].
• Reuters. (2026, January 22). Canada’s Carney seeks ‘predictable’ trade ties in China visit. [Report on Canadian Prime Minister’s visit].