Ghana’s year-on-year inflation slowed to 11.5 % in August 2025, the Ghana Statistical Service reported, extending a gradual disinflation path that began after the sharp value spikes of late 2024.

The August print moreover recorded a month-on-month decline of 1.3 %, a sign that value pressures eased all through various courses all through the month.

Food and non-alcoholic drinks keep the first provide of inflationary drive, the gang recorded 14.8 % year-on-year inflation in August, when put subsequent with 8.7% for non-food items. 

The August finish outcome places the country with regards to the federal authorities’s 2025 purpose of 11.9%, as stated inside the nationwide funds.

This is important because it is available in opposition to a backdrop of differing exterior forecasts.

In April 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a far higher end-year worth of about 17.5% for 2025, reflecting a cautious view of the way quickly value pressures and structural imbalances might be resolved.

However, after the year-on-year inflation dropped sharply in June from 18.4% to 13.7%, the IMF revised its forecast downward, projecting an end-year worth of 12%.

The IMF’s medium-term outlook stays constructive, anticipating that inflation will fall to single digits by the use of the highest of 2026 if deliberate macroeconomic adjustments preserve on course.

Two choices dominate the current snapshot. 

First, headline inflation has come down markedly from the very high expenses seen on the end of 2024, when year-on-year figures had been above 20%.

 Second, the disinflation is uneven: meals inflation stays to be significantly higher than non-food inflation, and a number of other different areas proceed to experience double-digit value creativity instruments in line with the consumer value index bulletin by the use of the Ghana Statistical Service. 

Why the decline to 11.5%? 

The modern fall shows a mixture of issues that pushed mixture value momentum lower inside the fast time interval. Seasonally softer meals prices in some markets, stepped ahead present stipulations for key staples in constructive areas, and a size of relative stability inside the cedi have all helped ease imported worth pressures. Monetary protection tightening in earlier months moreover weighed on name for creativity instruments and helped anchor inflation expectations.

That talked about, the durability of the decline relies upon whether or not or not these drivers dangle and whether or not or not fiscal and monetary authorities steer clear of protection slippage.

Even even supposing inflation is happening, prices are nonetheless high, and loads of persons are nonetheless curious concerning the worth of elementary things like meals and utilities compared to a few years previously.

For firms and merchants, the large question is whether or not or not prices will keep falling and if government will preserve disciplined with spending and price of curiosity selections to remain inflation under keep watch over.

What to look at subsequent: 

In the approaching months, it will be important to look at the next CPI (inflation) figures, how the cedi performs, and what selections the Bank of Ghana makes about charges of curiosity.

People can be taking a look at government spending to see if it stays inside funds. Harvest results and executive role prices for meals will play a big place in whether or not or not meals costs transfer up or down. 

The August print is a measurable development and brings the federal authorities even beneath its stated purpose. But the remainder of 2025 will determine whether or not or not the decline is consolidated or just a brief lived easing.

If exchange-rate stability, subdued meals inflation and financial self-discipline persist, the path in the direction of single-digit inflation in 2026, as a result of the IMF initiatives under its baseline turns into additional plausible.

If any of those elements falter, the year-end finish outcome may switch once more in the direction of the higher expenses flagged by the use of exterior forecasters.

For now, the knowledge show a promising sector; the protection alternatives and exterior shocks that observe will type whether or not or not that sector holds.

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