Ghana no longer experiencing ‘dumsor’ regardless of occasional outages – Analyst

Introduction

Is the lights staying on in Ghana? For years, the term “dumsor”—a Ghanaian pidgin expression meaning “turn off, turn on”—has been synonymous with the erratic and unpredictable power supply that plagued the nation’s economy and daily life. However, a new analysis by a prominent infrastructure and legal expert suggests that the narrative has fundamentally shifted. While occasional power outages still occur, Lom–Nuku Ahlijah, a legal professional and infrastructure coverage expert, asserts that Ghana is no longer in the era of “dumsor.”

Speaking on the AM Show on Joy News, Mr. Ahlijah provided a detailed breakdown of the current state of Ghana’s energy sector. His assessment highlights a year of relative stability in 2025, driven by improved management of energy assets and strategic financial reforms. This article explores the nuances of this claim, dissecting the technical, financial, and structural factors that define Ghana’s current power landscape.

Key Points

Background

To understand the significance of the current claim, it is essential to contextualize the history of Ghana’s power crisis. The phenomenon of “dumsor” became a defining feature of the national discourse roughly between 2012 and 2016, returning intermittently in subsequent years. It was not merely about lights going out; it was about a total lack of predictability. Businesses could not plan, manufacturing costs skyrocketed, and households faced prolonged darkness.

The root causes were often cited as a combination of maintenance debts, lack of fuel supply (specifically gas), and financial liquidity challenges facing the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) and the Volta River Authority (VRA). The situation was so dire that it necessitated an IMF bailout program in 2015, largely to stabilize the energy sector.

Over the years, various interventions, including the “Dumsor Must Stop” vigil and the implementation of load shedding schedules, were employed. Therefore, when an analyst claims that the country has moved past this era, it refers to a transition from crisis management to a more stable, albeit imperfect, operational mode.

Analysis

Defining the Current Energy Landscape

Lom–Nuku Ahlijah’s assertion that Ghana is no longer experiencing “dumsor” rests on a crucial technical distinction. “Dumsor” implies a systemic generation deficit where demand far exceeds supply, necessitating uncontrolled, widespread blackouts. In contrast, the current occasional outages are often attributed to localized technical faults, maintenance cycles, or transmission constraints within specific pockets of the country, rather than a national inability to generate enough megawatts.

According to the analyst, 2025 has been a “good year” for Ghana’s power utilities. This stability is not accidental. It reflects the operational maturity of the energy mix, which includes hydro, thermal (gas), and increasingly, renewable sources. The ability to maintain a baseload supply has reduced the panic associated with the power sector.

The Economic Impact of Stability

Stability in the power sector has a direct correlation with the macroeconomic environment. Ahlijah notes that the relative stability has positively influenced electricity tariff structures. In Ghana, tariffs are calculated based on a “pass-through” mechanism, which accounts for variables like fuel prices (crude oil and gas) and the foreign exchange rate.

Because the grid is more stable, the reliance on expensive emergency power providers has decreased. Furthermore, the stability in the Cedi-to-Dollar exchange rate—often a volatile factor in energy pricing—has helped moderate how much consumers pay. When the power supply is erratic, utilities are forced to buy power at premium rates from IPPs, costs which are eventually passed to the consumer. The current analysis suggests that this vicious cycle has been broken.

The Elephant in the Room: Legacy Debt

Despite the operational improvements, the financial health of the sector remains a critical concern. Mr. Ahlijah highlighted that the country is still “grappling with significant legacy debts.” These are unpaid bills accumulated over years of operating deficits, capacity charges owed to IPPs, and fuel debts.

These debts cannot be cleared overnight. They represent a structural liability that threatens long-term sustainability. The analyst points out that the government is currently in discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding these debts. The IMF’s involvement suggests that the solution requires not just money, but a complete overhaul of how the energy sector is managed financially—a condition often attached to such loans.

The Role of Independent Power Producers (IPPs)

A critical component of Ghana’s energy security is the Independent Power Producers (IPPs). These are private entities that generate electricity and sell it to the state. Ahlijah explains that IPPs have honored their contracts with the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG).

However, this reliability comes at a price. When there are shortages in natural gas supply—often due to pipeline maintenance or upstream production issues—IPPs switch to liquid fuels (diesel). Diesel is significantly more expensive than natural gas. While this ensures the lights stay on, it increases the “marginal cost” of electricity. The analyst notes that these extra costs eventually fall on the government’s budget, highlighting the delicate balance between ensuring supply and managing fiscal discipline.

Practical Advice

For residents and businesses in Ghana, understanding the current energy climate is vital for planning. Here is some practical advice based on the expert’s analysis:

For Households

Expect Stability, but prepare for maintenance: The “dumsor” era of unpredictable, days-long blackouts is deemed over. However, consumers should remain aware that localized outages for infrastructure maintenance will occur. It is advisable to stay informed through official ECG communication channels regarding maintenance schedules.

For Businesses

Factor in Energy Efficiency: While tariffs may be stabilizing, the cost of energy remains high. Businesses should invest in energy-efficient machinery and consider solar hybrid systems. The government’s move toward a new gas processing facility in the 2026 budget suggests a long-term commitment to cheaper fuel, but immediate operational efficiency is the responsibility of the business owner.

Monitor IMF Progress: The resolution of legacy debts via the IMF program is a key indicator of long-term sector health. Businesses should keep an eye on these developments, as successful reforms could lead to more competitive tariffs in the future.

For the General Public

Understand the Tariff Structure: Electricity bills are composed of various charges, including the “Energy Charge” (based on usage) and the “Municipal Assembly” charge. Understanding that the energy charge fluctuates based on fuel prices (gas vs. diesel) helps in budgeting for months where liquid fuels might be used more heavily due to supply chain issues.

FAQ

Conclusion

The narrative surrounding Ghana’s electricity supply is undergoing a significant transformation. Based on the analysis by Lom–Nuku Ahlijah, the country has successfully transitioned away from the debilitating era of “dumsor” characterized by total system collapse and uncontrolled blackouts. The current landscape, while not perfect, is defined by relative stability and strategic management.

However, this stability is built on a foundation that still requires reinforcement. The twin challenges of legacy debt management and the high cost of alternative fuels remain. The government’s engagement with the IMF and its plans for new gas infrastructure in 2026 are positive steps toward securing a permanent solution. For Ghanaians, the message is one of cautious optimism: the lights are staying on, and the systems are being fixed, but the journey toward a fully self-sufficient and affordable energy sector is ongoing.