Ghana’s Economic Growth Slows to 4.2% in November 2025 as Industry Sector Falters

Ghana’s economic momentum decelerated in November 2025, with the nation’s high-frequency growth indicator revealing a significant cooling. According to provisional data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), the Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth (MIEG) registered a year-on-year expansion of 4.2% for the month. This figure represents a marked slowdown from the 7.1% growth recorded in November 2024 and highlights growing sectoral disparities, with a sharp contraction in the industry sector offsetting robust performances in services and agriculture. The data, released on February 12, 2026, underscores a complex economic landscape where structural strengths are being challenged by volatility in key extractive industries.

Introduction: Decoding the November 2025 Growth Slowdown

The release of the MIEG provides one of the earliest and most timely signals of Ghana’s economic trajectory. For November 2025, the index value stood at 122.7, up from 117.7 in the same month of the previous year, mathematically yielding the 4.2% annual growth rate. While this represents a sequential increase from the 3.8% growth recorded in October 2025, the year-on-year comparison reveals a substantial loss of pace. This analysis delves into the components of this slowdown, examining which sectors propelled or hindered growth, what the trend implies for the broader economy, and what stakeholders should anticipate in the coming months. The central narrative is clear: a faltering industry sector, particularly in mining and petroleum, has acted as a significant drag on overall economic performance, even as the services-led structural transformation of the Ghanaian economy continues apace.

Key Points: At a Glance

• Overall Growth: Ghana’s MIEG grew by 4.2% year-on-year in November 2025, down from 7.1% in November 2024.
• Sectoral Leader: The services sector remained the primary engine of growth, expanding by 6.7% and contributing 57.7% to total growth.
• Steady Contributor: Agriculture grew by 4.1%, contributing 32.4% to overall growth, supported by crops and fishing.
• Major Drag: The industry sector growth plummeted to just 0.4%, down from 6.2% a year earlier, due to a contraction in mining and quarrying, especially upstream petroleum.
• Entrepreneur Impact: The “entrepreneur” sector (likely referring to a specific GSS classification or a typo for “industry” in some translations) contributed only 2.5% to the total 4.2% growth.
• Trend: The MIEG index has shown a consistent upward trend over two years (110.0 in Nov 2023 → 117.7 in Nov 2024 → 122.7 in Nov 2025), indicating sustained medium-term growth despite monthly volatility.
• Data Caution: The MIEG is a high-frequency, non-seasonally adjusted provisional indicator subject to revision.

Background: Understanding the Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth (MIEG)

What is the MIEG?

The Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth is a high-frequency statistical tool developed and published by the Ghana Statistical Service. It is designed to provide an early, monthly estimate of economic activity ahead of the official quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) releases. The MIEG compiles data from various sources—including VAT receipts, industrial production indices, electricity consumption, and key sectoral outputs—to construct a composite index that correlates strongly with the formal economy’s performance.

Purpose and Limitations

The primary purpose of the MIEG is to offer policymakers, businesses, and investors a near-real-time snapshot of economic trends, enabling more agile decision-making. However, its nature as a provisional and non-seasonally adjusted indicator comes with important caveats. Monthly data can be volatile, influenced by seasonal factors (like harvest cycles or holiday periods) that are not smoothed out. Furthermore, the MIEG relies on readily available administrative data and may not fully capture informal sector activity or capture the complete economic picture until the more comprehensive quarterly GDP calculations are finalized. The GSS explicitly states that the MIEG is subject to revision as more complete and updated data becomes available. Therefore, while it is a valuable trend indicator, it should be interpreted with an understanding of its methodological constraints and in conjunction with other economic data.

Analysis: A Story of Two Sectors and One Drag

The 4.2% growth figure for November 2025 masks a tale of profound sectoral divergence. To understand the slowdown, one must dissect the contributions of the three broad economic sectors: Agriculture, Industry, and Services.

1. Services Sector: The Unstoppable Force of Structural Change

The services sector continues to be the cornerstone of Ghana’s economic growth story. Expanding by 6.7% year-on-year, it contributed a dominant 57.7% to the overall 4.2% growth. This performance, while slower than the 10.2% surge in November 2024, still represents robust expansion. The growth was “largely” driven by the information and communication sub-sector, reflecting the deepening digitalization of the Ghanaian economy—in areas such as fintech, telecommunications, and IT services. This aligns with a long-term, structural shift towards a service-dominated economy, a common trajectory for developing nations as they move beyond agricultural and basic industrial bases. The resilience of services, even during periods of commodity price volatility, highlights its role as a stabilizing and growth-generating force.

2. Agriculture Sector: The Bedrock of Stability

Providing a crucial counterbalance, the agriculture sector grew by 4.1%, marginally up from 3.8% a year prior. Its contribution of 32.4% to total growth is substantial, second only to services. The GSS attributed this performance to gains in crop production and fishing activities. This stability is critical for a nation like Ghana, where agriculture remains a major employer and a key determinant of food security and rural livelihoods. Steady agricultural growth helps contain inflationary pressures from food prices and provides a stable foundation for the broader economy, even when other sectors fluctuate.

3. Industry Sector: The Anchor Drag on Performance

The defining feature of the November 2025 MIEG is the dramatic collapse in industry sector growth to 0.4%, a steep fall from 6.2% in the previous year. The GSS explicitly linked this to “a contraction in mining and quarrying largely on the back of contraction in upstream petroleum activities.” This points directly to the volatile nature of Ghana’s extractive industries, particularly oil and gas. Factors such as scheduled maintenance, technical issues at production facilities, declines in global commodity prices affecting production decisions, or base effects from a particularly strong previous year can cause sharp quarterly and monthly swings in this sub-sector. The industry’s meager contribution of just 2.5% to the total growth rate underscores how a single, capital-intensive sector’s downturn can disproportionately weigh on aggregate economic performance.

Synthesis: The Net Effect and the Trend

The combined effect is a net growth rate that is positive but substantially cooled. The strong, broad-based contributions from services (57.7%) and agriculture (32.4%) were nearly negated by the industry’s weakness. The fact that growth still accelerated slightly from October (3.8% to 4.2%) suggests some underlying momentum, but the year-on-year comparison is a stark reminder of the economy’s vulnerability to sector-specific shocks. The longer-term trend, however, remains constructive: the MIEG index’s steady climb from 110.0 to 122.7 over two years indicates that, despite monthly volatility, the medium-term growth trajectory is upward. The challenge for policymakers is to manage the volatility in the extractive sector while fostering deeper, more resilient growth in services and agriculture.

Practical Advice: Implications for Stakeholders

For Policymakers and Government

The data reinforces the urgency of economic diversification. Over-reliance on petroleum revenues and mining output creates fiscal and growth volatility. Policymakers should:

• Accelerate Structural Transformation: Double down on initiatives that deepen the services sector beyond traditional trade, focusing on high-value areas like digital services, financial technology, and business process outsourcing.
• Agricultural Value Addition: Move beyond stabilizing crop output to promoting agro-processing, which would increase agriculture’s value-addition, create jobs, and link the sector more strongly to the services and industrial sectors.
• Stabilize the Investment Climate: Address the underlying causes of industry sector volatility, whether regulatory, infrastructural, or related to global price shocks, to make the extractive sector a more stable contributor.
• Use Data Prudently: Treat the MIEG as an early warning and monitoring system. A single month’s slowdown requires context, but a pattern of industrial underperformance warrants targeted policy review.

For Investors and Businesses

• Sectoral Focus: The data clearly signals where consistent growth opportunities lie: services (especially ICT) and agriculture (and its value chains). Investment and business expansion in these areas are less susceptible to the commodity cycle.
• Supply Chain Opportunities: The strength in services and agriculture creates demand for supporting services—logistics, packaging, finance, and tech solutions—presenting opportunities for SMEs.
• Caution in Extractive-Linked Sectors: Businesses heavily dependent on the oil, gas, or mining ecosystem (e.g., specialized suppliers, engineering firms) should prepare for cyclical downturns and diversify their client base.
• Interpret Signals, Not Noise: One month’s MIEG is a signal, not a definitive trend. Look for corroborating evidence in subsequent monthly releases and the next quarterly GDP report before making major strategic pivots.

For the General Public and Consumers

• Job Market: Growth in services and agriculture suggests relative stability or opportunities in these employment sectors. Conversely, jobs directly tied to mining and oil may face uncertainty during such downturns.
• Inflation Watch: Stable agricultural growth is a positive sign for food price inflation. However, a weak industry sector could impact the prices of imported goods and locally manufactured products if it affects supply chains.
• Economic Sentiment: While 4.2% growth is positive by global standards, the sharp deceleration from the prior year may dampen consumer and business confidence if perceived as part of a worsening trend. Monitoring subsequent months is key.

FAQ: Addressing Common Questions

Q1: How reliable is the MIEG compared to the official GDP figures?

The MIEG is a reliable high-frequency indicator but not a substitute for official GDP. It is based on administrative and operational data and is designed to capture trends quickly. However, it is non-seasonally adjusted and provisional. The quarterly GDP, compiled using a broader set of surveys and accounting frameworks (like the production approach), is the official, comprehensive measure of economic output and is subject to its own rigorous revision cycle. The MIEG’s value is in its timeliness, not its final precision.

Q2: What exactly is the “entrepreneur” sector mentioned in the summary?

The term “entrepreneur” in the source summary appears to be a translation or categorization quirk. Based on standard GSS sectoral classifications (Agriculture, Industry, Services), the contribution breakdown (Services 57.7%, Agriculture 32.4%) leaves only about 10% for Industry. The text states “the entrepreneur contributed only 2.5%,” which likely refers to a specific sub-component within the broader “Industry” classification, possibly related to small-scale manufacturing or construction, or it may be a mis-translation of “industry” itself. The core analytical point remains: the non-services, non-agriculture part of the economy (i.e., Industry) was exceptionally weak, contributing minimally to growth.

Q3: Is a 4.2% growth rate bad for Ghana?

Context is everything. A 4.2% growth rate would be considered strong by the standards of many advanced economies. For Ghana, which has historically targeted growth rates above 6% to achieve its development goals, 4.2% represents a significant slowdown from its recent performance (7.1% in Nov 2024) and falls below potential. It is positive growth but indicates the economy is not expanding at its desired or previously achieved pace, primarily due to sector-specific headwinds. It is a “cooling,” not a “contraction.”

Q4: Should we be worried about the industry sector’s performance?

Yes, it warrants serious attention but not immediate panic. The industry sector’s plunge to 0.4% is a red flag for volatility in the extractive (mining/oil) sub-sector. If this is a temporary blip due to maintenance or a one-off event, the impact may be short-lived. However, if it signals a longer-term decline in investment, production capacity, or global commodity prices, it could pose a sustained risk to fiscal revenues and overall growth momentum. Policymakers must diagnose the cause: is it cyclical or structural?

Q5: Can the services and agriculture sectors alone sustain Ghana’s growth?

They can provide significant and stable momentum, but long-term, high-growth development typically requires a diversified base. A dominant services sector is a sign of a maturing economy, but a robust industrial sector (manufacturing, value-added processing) is crucial for job creation at scale, technology transfer, and export diversification beyond raw materials. The ideal scenario is a synergistic growth model where strong agriculture feeds into agro-industry, and a stable industrial base supports services. The current data shows a successful structural shift to services but a failing industrial component, which is an imbalance to address.

Conclusion: Navigating a Patchwork Recovery

The November 2025 MIEG paints a picture of a Ghanaian economy growing at a slower clip, with its progress unevenly distributed across sectors. The 4.2% growth rate, while positive, signals a clear deceleration from the previous year’s pace. The analysis unequivocally points to the industry sector, specifically mining and upstream petroleum, as the primary culprit behind this slowdown. Its near-stagnation (0.4% growth) starkly contrasts with the vibrant expansions in services (6.7%) and agriculture (4.1%).

This divergence reinforces two key narratives. First, the structural shift toward a service-led economy is not only continuing but is proving resilient, with information and communication acting as a major catalyst. Second, the economy remains perilously exposed to the boom-bust cycles of its extractive industries. The challenge for Ghana is to de-risk its growth model. This involves implementing policies that stabilize and eventually grow the industrial base—through value addition in agriculture, support for manufacturing, and creating a predictable environment for mining and energy investment—while fully leveraging the momentum in services and agriculture.

Stakeholders should view this MIEG release as a nuanced report card. It is not a signal of crisis but a call for strategic recalibration. The provisional nature of the data means the next few monthly releases will be critical in determining whether the industry sector’s performance is a temporary dip or the start of a