Guinea-Bissau Coup d’État 2025: Prof Kwesi Aning Warns It Won’t Be the Last in West Africa

Published: November 27, 2025 | In the wake of Guinea-Bissau’s latest military takeover, security expert Prof Kwesi Aning highlights deepening risks of political instability in West Africa. This comprehensive guide breaks down the events, expert analysis, and broader implications for coups in the region.

Introduction

The Guinea-Bissau coup d’état on November 26, 2025, has ignited concerns across West Africa about recurring military interventions. Just days after the country’s presidential elections on November 23, 2025, a group of military officers announced they had seized control, suspended the electoral process, and detained President Umaro Sissoco Embaló. This event underscores persistent challenges in Guinea-Bissau’s fragile democracy, marked by a history of coups since its independence in 1974.

Renowned security analyst Prof Kwesi Aning, speaking on Joy FM’s Super Morning Show on November 27, 2025, cautioned that this Guinea-Bissau coup d’état may not be the last in West Africa. He pointed to underlying issues like corruption, lack of transparency, poor governance, and inadequate access to social services as catalysts for such unrest. As West Africa grapples with a wave of coups—from Mali in 2020 and 2021 to Niger in 2023—this incident raises urgent questions about democratic sustainability in the region.

Historical Context of Instability

Guinea-Bissau, a small coastal nation in West Africa, has experienced at least nine coup attempts since 1974, including successful takeovers in 1980, 1998, 2003, and 2012. These patterns reflect deep-seated ethnic tensions, drug trafficking influences, and economic vulnerabilities, making it a hotspot for military coups in West Africa.

Analysis

Prof Kwesi Aning’s analysis frames the Guinea-Bissau coup d’état within broader West African trends. He emphasized that the coup stemmed from alleged plots by politicians backed by a “well-known drug baron,” leading to border closures and a nationwide curfew. Gunfire echoed in the capital, Bissau, as officers appeared on state television to justify their actions amid post-election tensions.

Aning argued that deficient political planning exacerbates these risks. When citizens struggle with basic needs—such as healthcare, education, and food security—frustration boils over, inviting military involvement. This perspective aligns with ECOWAS reports on how governance failures fuel instability. In Guinea-Bissau, poverty affects over 70% of the population, per World Bank data from 2023, amplifying grievances that coups exploit.

Prof Kwesi Aning’s Key Insights

“There is a larger query concerning the usefulness of democracy, the character of approach, problems round corruption, transparency….this isn’t going to finish, this might not be the remaining coup d’etat,” Aning stated. His expertise, drawn from years at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre, lends weight to predictions of more West Africa coups.

Summary

On November 26, 2025, Guinea-Bissau’s military seized power post-elections, detaining President Embaló and suspending democratic processes. Prof Kwesi Aning warns this reflects systemic West African issues: corruption, poor service delivery, and democratic fatigue. Ghana condemned the coup, urging a return to constitutional rule, while the region braces for ripple effects. This Guinea-Bissau political instability event highlights the fragility of post-colonial governance in ECOWAS nations.

Key Points

Practical Advice

For residents, travelers, and businesses navigating Guinea-Bissau coup d’état aftermath, prioritize safety amid uncertainty. Monitor ECOWAS statements and U.S. State Department advisories, which often elevate travel warnings post-coup.

For Citizens and Expats

Stock essential supplies, avoid public gatherings, and register with embassies. Use apps like Alert24/7 for real-time updates on West African security.

For Investors and Policymakers

Diversify risks beyond coup-prone nations; support ECOWAS mediation funds. Engage in transparent aid programs targeting corruption, as recommended by Transparency International’s 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, where Guinea-Bissau scores 21/100.

Media and Researchers

Cross-verify sources; follow verified outlets like BBC Africa or Reuters for military coups West Africa coverage.

Points of Caution

While awaiting resolution, heed these risks: Escalating violence in Bissau could spread to borders with Senegal and Guinea. Drug trafficking networks, long entrenched in Guinea-Bissau (per UNODC 2023 reports), may exploit vacuums. Economic fallout includes halted trade, as seen in Niger’s 2023 coup with a 30% GDP dip forecast by IMF.

Prof Aning cautions against complacency; voter disenfranchisement from suspended elections erodes trust, potentially sparking protests. Diaspora remittances, vital at 20% of GDP (World Bank 2024), face disruptions.

Comparison

The Guinea-Bissau coup d’état shares traits with recent West African counterparts but stands out for its election timing.

Vs. Sahel Coups

Mali (2020, 2021): Jihadist threats justified takeovers; juntas expelled from ECOWAS. Niger (2023): Bazoum ousted; sanctions imposed, later lifted. Burkina Faso (2022 twice): Terrorism cited; AES alliance formed.

Vs. Coastal Incidents

Guinea (2021): Economic woes drove Condé’s removal. Unlike Guinea-Bissau’s drug baron claims, these emphasized anti-corruption rhetoric. Common thread: Youth unemployment over 40% (ILO 2024) fuels unrest.

Legal Implications

Applicable under ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance (2001), which mandates zero tolerance for unconstitutional changes. Article 45 requires sanctions for coups, as enforced in Niger 2023. African Union Charter condemns such acts, potentially barring junta leaders from AU summits.

Guinea-Bissau’s constitution (Article 36) prohibits military political interference; violators face treason charges. International law via UN Resolution 2715 (2024) supports democratic restoration. Ghana’s condemnation aligns with bilateral treaties urging constitutional return.

Conclusion

The 2025 Guinea-Bissau coup d’état exemplifies West Africa’s democratic vulnerabilities, as Prof Kwesi Aning astutely warns. Root causes—corruption, service gaps, and elite plots—demand regional action. ECOWAS must bolster early warning systems, while nations invest in inclusive governance. Only through transparency and equity can West Africa avert more military coups, fostering stability for 400 million citizens.

This event calls for global vigilance; pedagogical lessons from history show that unaddressed grievances perpetuate cycles of instability.

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