High Stakes in Ayawaso East: NDC Delegates Choose Candidate for Crucial 2026 By-Election

The political atmosphere in Ghana’s Ayawaso East constituency is at a fever pitch as the National Democratic Congress (NDC) prepares for a decisive primary election on Saturday, February 7, 2026. This internal party contest will determine the NDC’s flagbearer for the parliamentary by-election scheduled for March 3, 2026, a seat rendered vacant by the tragic passing of the incumbent MP, Naser Toure. Given the NDC’s historical dominance in this Greater Accra region stronghold, the outcome of this primary is widely seen as tantamount to electing the next Member of Parliament. With five aspirants vetted and approved, the race has crystallized into a tense three-way battle, influenced by a powerful “sympathy factor,” formidable grassroots connections, and high-level political experience. This comprehensive analysis examines the key contenders, the strategic landscape, and what the results mean for Ghanaian politics.

Key Points at a Glance

• Event: NDC Ayawaso East Constituency Primary Election to select a candidate for the March 3, 2026 by-election.
• Date: Saturday, February 7, 2026. Voting from 9:00 AM to 4:00 PM at the Nima Cluster of Schools.
• Stakes: The NDC has held this seat historically; the primary winner is the overwhelming favorite to win the parliamentary seat.
• Contenders: Five candidates on the ballot; race narrowed to a three-horse contest between Hajia Amina Adam, Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, and Dr. Yakubu Azindow.
• Key Dynamic: Hajia Amina Adam, widow of the deceased MP, is leveraging a significant “sympathy vote” and leads in internal polling.
• Historical Context: The 2023 NDC primary for the 2024 general election saw Naser Toure (late MP) win with 44.93%, followed by Baba Jamal (30.72%) and Dr. Azindow (24.06%).
• Threshold: With over 1,100 delegates expected, an absolute majority of 551 votes is needed to win.
• Logistics: The Electoral Commission (EC) will supervise, with security provided by the Ghana Police Service. All arrangements are finalized, confirmed by NDC Greater Accra Regional Secretary Theophilus Tetteh Chaie.

Background: The Vacancy and Historical Precedents

The By-Election Trigger

The catalyst for this political activity is the unfortunate demise of the sitting Member of Parliament for Ayawaso East, Naser Toure. His passing created a constitutional vacancy, necessitating a by-election to fill the parliamentary seat for the remainder of the term. In Ghana’s political system, where party affiliation is a prime determinant of electoral success, the selection of a candidate by the dominant party—the NDC in Ayawaso East—is the critical, almost decisive, step. The constituency, located within the Greater Accra Region and encompassing areas like Nima and Accra New Town, is a traditional NDC fortress, making the primary the de facto selection of the next MP.

Lessons from the 2023 NDC Primary

To understand the current dynamics, one must analyze the results of the last NDC primary held in this constituency in 2023, which selected the candidate for the 2024 general election. That contest, which the late Naser Toure won, provides a crucial baseline for measuring support and identifying the core constituencies of each aspirant.

• Naser Toure (Incumbent, late): 452 votes (44.93%)
• Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed: 309 votes (30.72%)
• Dr. Yakubu Azindow: 242 votes (24.06%)

These figures reveal a competitive but structured field. The late Toure’s victory, while clear, was not a landslide, leaving a substantial pool of delegates—over 600—who supported other candidates. This reservoir of potential support is now the battleground for the current contenders, particularly the two who directly trailed him. The performance of Baba Jamal and Dr. Azindow in 2023 establishes them as proven candidates with existing delegate networks, while Hajia Amina Adam’s entry represents a new, emotionally charged variable.

Analysis: The Three-Horse Race and Candidate Profiles

The Frontrunners and Their Strategies

While five names appear on the ballot paper, political observers, party insiders, and betting markets suggest the contest is effectively between three leading aspirants. Each brings a distinct profile and coalition of support.

1. Hajia Amina Adam: The Sympathy and Continuity Candidate

As the widow of the deceased MP, Naser Toure, Hajia Amina Adam’s campaign is inherently tied to a powerful narrative of loss, legacy, and continuity. Political science and electoral studies consistently show that “sympathy votes” or “widow’s succession” can be a potent force in by-elections, particularly in tight-knit, community-oriented constituencies like Ayawaso East. Her platform centers on youth and women’s empowerment, aligning with key NDC social democratic pillars.

Profile & Credentials: She holds Master’s degrees from the University of Professional Studies, Accra (UPSA) and a university in Milan, Italy. She describes herself as a “prominent asset allocation, philanthropist and community market advocate” with deep, generational roots in the Nima community. Her strength is perceived as organic community connection and a direct emotional link to the previous MP’s work.

Polling Position: Internal surveys, notably from the research firm Global Info Analytics, give her a commanding lead. Data released on February 5, 2026, indicated she commands 58% of surveyed delegate and supporter preference, creating a significant gap between her and the closest rivals.

2. Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed: The Experienced Insider

Baba Jamal frames his candidacy as a “homecoming.” A legal practitioner and former Deputy Minister, he has prior electoral experience in the constituency, having secured 309 votes (30.72%) in the 2023 primary. He positions himself as the most experienced and ready candidate, with the political acumen and stature to effectively represent the constituency in Parliament from day one. His message emphasizes proven capability and a deep understanding of both local and national governance.

Profile & Credentials: His background as a Deputy Minister provides him with high-level government experience and name recognition. His 2023 performance demonstrates a solid, transferable base of delegate support. He is likely consolidating the “Toure-adjacent” vote that is not automatically transferring to his widow, as well as his own loyalists.

3. Dr. Yakubu Azindow: The Grassroots Scholar

Dr. Azindow is a political scientist with a PhD from the University of Massachusetts. His campaign blends academic expertise with a claimed strong “grassroots connections and track record.” He argues that his analytical skills and deep understanding of political systems are vital for navigating parliamentary procedures and advocating effectively for development projects. His 2023 primary result of 242 votes (24.06%) establishes him as a serious contender with a dedicated following.

Profile & Credentials: His international academic credential is a unique selling point, suggesting a capacity for evidence-based policy advocacy. His challenge is to translate scholarly respect into votes, potentially appealing to delegates who prioritize intellectual capacity and long-term strategic vision.

The Other Contenders

• Mohammed Ramne (Constituency Chairman): Running on a platform of continuity and a “proven track record” in his role as the current Constituency Chairman. His support likely stems from party executives and those favoring institutional stability.
• Najib Mohammed Sani: Focuses his platform on “education, women, youth empowerment, sports and games.” He claims a strong ground-level connection, stating “the people believe in Najib to deliver.” He may be targeting specific demographic blocs, particularly youth and sports enthusiasts.

Strategic Implications of the Polling Data

The Global Info Analytics survey, while a snapshot and not a definitive prediction, reveals critical strategic pressures. Hajia Amina Adam’s 58% lead suggests she has successfully translated personal sympathy and community goodwill into a broad delegate preference. For the other candidates, the data implies a urgent need to:
a) Prevent the race from becoming a two-candidate contest between themselves and Hajia Amina, which would likely consolidate anti-sympathy votes but still fall short.
b) aggressively campaign for the approximately 42% of delegates not currently aligned with her, which requires clear differentiation and coalition-building among the non-Amina camps.
c) Address the possibility of a “bandwagon effect,” where undecided delegates may move towards the perceived winner.

The primary’s outcome will hinge on delegate turnout, the effectiveness of last-minute campaigning, and whether the sympathy narrative translates into actual ballot markings versus expressed preference in surveys.

Practical Advice: For Delegates, Observers, and the Media

For NDC Delegates: Making an Informed Choice

Delegates hold the constitutional power to select the candidate. To exercise this responsibly:

1. Scrutinize Platforms: Compare the detailed plans each candidate has for addressing constituency-specific issues like youth unemployment, market access for traders (a key issue in Nima), sanitation, and education infrastructure.
2. Assess Electability: Consider which candidate is best positioned to win the March 3 by-election against the anticipated opposition from the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and other parties. Think about national appeal, media competence, and ability to attract cross-party support.
3. Evaluate Integrity and Capacity: Review the professional and public service records of each aspirant. Consider their history of accountability, transparency, and tangible results.
4. Look Beyond Sympathy: While the widow’s story is compelling, delegates must also weigh long-term representation. Will the chosen candidate be an effective legislator for the next four years? Can they build on the late MP’s legacy or chart a new, more effective course?

For Media and Observers: Covering the Process

Reporting on such a high-stakes primary requires balance and depth:

• Verify Information: Rely on official sources like the NDC Regional Secretariat, the Electoral Commission, and accredited party agents for logistical details and results.
• Contextualize Claims: When candidates make promises, place them in the context of the constituency’s history, the NDC’s national platform, and the practical powers of a Member of Parliament.
• Monitor Process Integrity: Observe the accreditation of delegates, the voting procedure, the counting process, and the declaration of results for transparency and compliance with party regulations.
• Highlight Issues, Not Just Personalities: Use the campaign to illuminate the key developmental and political challenges facing the Ayawaso East constituency, from urban poverty to traffic congestion to market management.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is an NDC primary?

It is an internal election organized by the National Democratic Congress (NDC) to select its official candidate for a specific parliamentary seat in a general election or by-election. Only registered party members who are selected as “delegates” (typically local party executives and elected representatives) are entitled to vote in this primary.

Why is this primary so important?

Ayawaso East is a stronghold for the NDC. In Ghana’s first-past-the-post parliamentary system, the party that wins the most votes in a constituency takes the seat. Historically, the NDC has won this seat by large margins. Therefore, the candidate who wins the NDC primary is virtually assured of becoming the next MP, making the