Introduction

In a recent interview on Joy News’ PM Express, Walewale Member of Parliament Dr Tia Kabiru challenged the prevailing narrative that Ghana’s current macroeconomic stability is primarily the result of exceptional government policy. Instead, Dr Kabiru argued that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program is the true anchor of Ghana’s economic recovery. This perspective offers a crucial corrective to over-optimistic claims and highlights the importance of international financial institutions in supporting developing economies. This article explores the context, evidence, and implications of Dr Kabiru’s remarks, providing readers with a balanced understanding of Ghana’s economic situation and the role of external support programs.

Key Points

Background

The IMF Program in Ghana

Ghana has a long history of engaging with the IMF to stabilize its economy during periods of fiscal stress. The most recent program, initiated under the previous government, aims to restore macroeconomic stability, reduce fiscal deficits, and rebuild international reserves. Key components include fiscal consolidation, monetary policy coordination, and structural reforms to improve revenue mobilization and public financial management.

The program provides financial support and technical assistance, but more importantly, it serves as a signal to international markets and investors that Ghana is committed to sound economic policies. This credibility is essential for attracting foreign investment and maintaining access to international capital markets.

Previous IMF Programs in Ghana

Ghana’s experience with the IMF is not new. The country has had multiple IMF-supported programs over the decades, including notable ones in 1995–1999, 2009–2012, and 2015–2018. Each program was designed to address specific economic challenges, such as high inflation, large fiscal deficits, and external imbalances. The outcomes have varied, but the programs generally succeeded in stabilizing the economy in the short term while laying the groundwork for longer-term reforms.

Analysis

Why the IMF Program Matters

The IMF program acts as a fiscal anchor, constraining government spending and ensuring that monetary policy remains focused on price stability. This is particularly important in a country like Ghana, where fiscal indiscipline has historically contributed to economic instability. The program also provides a framework for policy coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana, reducing the risk of policy conflicts that can undermine economic performance.

Moreover, the IMF’s conditionalities often include structural reforms that are politically difficult to implement but economically necessary. These reforms can improve tax administration, reduce energy sector losses, and enhance public financial management. Without the IMF’s support and oversight, such reforms might be delayed or diluted due to political pressures.

Historical Comparison: 2017–2019 vs. Present

Dr Kabiru’s reference to the 2017–2019 period is instructive. During that time, Ghana recorded primary budget surpluses, strong GDP growth, and declining inflation, all under an IMF-supported program. The government at the time also received high approval ratings, with Afrobarometer reporting a 70% approval rating for the president at the end of his first year. Today, the approval rating stands at 67%, suggesting that public sentiment is not significantly higher than it was in the previous administration.

This comparison underscores the point that macroeconomic stability in Ghana is often associated with IMF programs rather than specific government policies. While domestic policy choices matter, they operate within the broader framework established by the IMF program.

The Risk of Fiscal Indiscipline

One of Dr Kabiru’s most important warnings is about the risk of fiscal indiscipline if the IMF program were to end prematurely. History shows that Ghana has struggled to maintain fiscal discipline in the absence of external constraints. For example, after the completion of the 2015–2018 IMF program, the government increased spending significantly, contributing to a fiscal deficit that reached 7.2% of GDP in 2019.

This pattern is not unique to Ghana. Many developing countries face similar challenges in maintaining fiscal discipline without external oversight. The IMF program, therefore, serves not just as a source of financial support but as a commitment device that helps governments resist the temptation to overspend.

The Role of Government Commitment

While Dr Kabiru emphasizes the role of the IMF, he does not dismiss the importance of government commitment. The current administration and the Finance Minister have been praised for adhering to the program’s conditionalities, which is no small feat given the political costs of austerity measures. However, Dr Kabiru warns against portraying this commitment as a sign of exceptional policy brilliance.

Instead, he suggests that the government’s role should be seen as that of a responsible steward who follows the rules set by the IMF. This is an important distinction because it affects how the public perceives the government’s economic management and, consequently, how it holds the government accountable.

Practical Advice

For Policymakers

• Maintain IMF Commitment: Continue to adhere to the IMF program’s conditionalities to ensure macroeconomic stability.
• Implement Structural Reforms: Use the program as an opportunity to implement difficult but necessary reforms in tax administration, energy, and public financial management.
• Communicate Realistically: Avoid overstating the government’s role in the recovery to manage public expectations and maintain credibility.
• Plan for Post-Program Period: Develop a strategy for maintaining fiscal discipline after the IMF program ends.

For Investors

• Monitor IMF Compliance: Keep track of Ghana’s adherence to the IMF program as a key indicator of economic stability.
• Assess Reform Progress: Evaluate the progress of structural reforms that will have long-term implications for the business environment.
• Consider Political Risks: Be aware of the political pressures that could lead to deviations from the program.

For the General Public

• Stay Informed: Follow reliable sources for updates on the IMF program and its impact on the economy.
• Avoid Over-Celebration: Recognize that the recovery is still fragile and requires sustained effort.
• Hold Government Accountable: Demand transparency and accountability in the implementation of the program and related reforms.

FAQ

Conclusion

Dr Tia Kabiru’s remarks offer a sobering but necessary perspective on Ghana’s economic recovery. While the current government deserves credit for adhering to the IMF program, the real driver of stability is the program itself, not any exceptional policy brilliance. This distinction is important for maintaining realistic expectations and for ensuring that the recovery is sustainable in the long term.

As Ghana moves into the second and third years of the program, the focus should remain on implementing structural reforms and maintaining fiscal discipline. The real test will be whether the country can sustain its recovery after the IMF program ends. Until then, it is prudent to avoid over-celebration and to recognize that the path to economic stability is a marathon, not a sprint.

Sources

• Interview with Dr Tia Kabiru on Joy News’ PM Express, January 7, 2026.
• IMF Country Report No. 25/123 for Ghana, February 2025.
• Afrobarometer Survey Results, Ghana, 2017 and 2026.
• Bank of Ghana Annual Report, 2025.
• Ministry of Finance Budget Statements, 2017–2026.
• World Bank Ghana Economic Update, December 2025.