InfoAnalytics Predicts Strong Lead for Hajia Amina in Ayawaso East NDC Primary

Introduction

The upcoming National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primary in Ayawaso East is generating significant political interest as pollster InfoAnalytics forecasts a decisive victory for Hajia Amina Adam. The widow of the late MP Mahama Naser Toure appears positioned to secure the party’s nomination with a substantial lead over her closest competitor, Baba Jamal.

Key Points

Background

The Ayawaso East constituency has been without parliamentary representation since the passing of Mahama Naser Toure. As the widow of the deceased MP, Hajia Amina Adam has emerged as a prominent candidate in the upcoming NDC primary. Her candidacy has generated both support and controversy within party ranks, with some members questioning the appropriateness of a widow succeeding her late husband in the same parliamentary seat.

The National Democratic Congress, one of Ghana’s major political parties, is preparing for this crucial primary that will determine its standard-bearer for the upcoming general elections. The outcome will significantly impact the party’s prospects in what has traditionally been considered an NDC stronghold.

Analysis

According to Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, the polling data presents a clear picture of the current political landscape in Ayawaso East. With Hajia Amina Adam commanding approximately 54% support among delegates, her position appears considerably stronger than that of her nearest rival, Baba Jamal, who is projected to receive no more than 38% of the vote.

The 3.2% margin of error in the polling data still places Hajia Amina Adam comfortably ahead even under the most conservative calculations. This statistical advantage suggests that even if some voters shift their preferences in the final days before the election, her lead remains substantial enough to withstand minor fluctuations.

What makes these projections particularly noteworthy is the apparent disconnect between certain party elites and the grassroots membership. Despite some internal narratives questioning the appropriateness of a widow succeeding her late husband, survey results indicate that 66% of general NDC voters in the constituency and 58% of delegates disagree with this sentiment.

“This suggests that a narrative being pushed by some is not resonating with the grassroots,” Mr. Dankwah explained. “I believe there was a miscalculation of the local dynamics in Ayawaso.” This observation points to a potential misreading of voter sentiment by certain party factions who may have underestimated the widow’s appeal and the community’s willingness to support her candidacy.

The polling data effectively challenges the effectiveness of efforts to dissuade Hajia Amina from contesting the seat. These attempts appear to have found little traction among the broader party membership and constituents, suggesting that the widow’s personal connection to the late MP and her own political credentials resonate strongly with voters.

Practical Advice

For political candidates and campaign managers observing this primary, several strategic lessons emerge:

1. **Understanding Local Dynamics**: The Ayawaso East situation demonstrates the importance of accurately gauging grassroots sentiment rather than relying solely on elite perspectives within a political party.

2. **Narrative Management**: The disconnect between certain party narratives and voter preferences highlights the need for campaigns to test their messaging with actual constituents before implementation.

3. **Timing Considerations**: With the primary scheduled for February 7, candidates still have a brief window to adjust their strategies, though InfoAnalytics suggests that dramatic late shifts in voter preference are highly improbable.

4. **Data-Driven Decision Making**: The reliance on polling data by InfoAnalytics underscores the value of empirical evidence in political forecasting and campaign planning.

For voters in Ayawaso East, this primary represents an opportunity to select their party’s representative for the upcoming general elections. The substantial lead projected for Hajia Amina Adam suggests that delegates are prepared to continue the political legacy of her late husband while potentially ushering in new leadership for the constituency.

FAQ

Conclusion

The InfoAnalytics forecast for the Ayawaso East NDC primary presents a compelling picture of political dynamics in this constituency. With Hajia Amina Adam positioned as the clear frontrunner, the upcoming election appears likely to result in her selection as the party’s parliamentary candidate. The polling data not only predicts electoral outcomes but also reveals important insights about the relationship between party elites and grassroots members, the effectiveness of internal party narratives, and the enduring influence of political legacies in Ghanaian politics.

As Saturday’s primary approaches, all eyes will be on Ayawaso East to see whether the polling projections materialize into actual electoral results. Regardless of the final outcome, this contest has already provided valuable lessons about political strategy, voter sentiment, and the complex dynamics that shape candidate selection within major political parties.

Sources

– InfoAnalytics polling data released by Global InfoAnalytics
– Statements from Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
– Life Pulse Daily reporting on the Ayawaso East NDC primary

[Note: The original article was published on 2026-02-06 20:32:00. The disclaimer regarding views and opinions expressed by readers and contributors remains applicable to this reporting.]