Iran professional Ross Harrison: ‘Cutting off the pinnacle of the snake’ would no longer deliver down the regime

Introduction

In February 2026, tensions between the United States and Iran reached a vital level, with army arrangements underway and diplomatic talks in Geneva. Ross Harrison, a nonresident student on the Middle East Institute and writer of Decoding Iran’s Foreign Policy (2025), introduced a sobering viewpoint: although the U.S. had been to focus on Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, such an motion—ceaselessly described as “chopping off the pinnacle of the snake”—would no longer ensure the cave in of the Iranian regime. This article explores Harrison’s research, the present geopolitical local weather, and the results for U.S.-Iran family members.

Key Points

Background

The geopolitical panorama in early 2026 is marked by way of heightened tensions between the United States and Iran. Following a chain of army confrontations, together with a 12-day conflict in June 2025 the place Israel, subsidized by way of the U.S., struck Iranian nuclear and armed forces amenities, each countries in finding themselves at a crossroads. Diplomatic efforts, similar to the second one spherical of negotiations in Geneva on February 13, have yielded some business leader, however the presence of a U.S. “armada” off the coast of Iran indicators a readiness for army motion. Ross Harrison’s insights supply a vital lens wherein to know the complexities of the placement.

Analysis

The Illusion of Swift Intervention

Harrison cautions in opposition to drawing parallels between the placement in Iran and the swift intervention noticed in Venezuela in January 2026. While the latter concerned a reasonably fast regime trade, Iran’s political and social material is way more complicated. The Iranian regime has spent a long time consolidating energy, construction a community of loyalists, and suppressing dissent. As Harrison notes, “chopping off the pinnacle of the snake” by way of concentrated on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer be enough to dismantle the regime. The Revolutionary Guards, the clerical established order, and different key establishments would most likely care for regulate, probably resulting in inner energy struggles somewhat than a cave in.

Negotiations as Ultimatums

The Geneva talks, whilst framed as negotiations, are perceived another way by way of the events concerned. Harrison argues that the time period “negotiation” isn’t suitable on this context. Instead, the talks resemble ultimatums, with the U.S. leveraging its army presence to power Iran. Iranian officers, cautious of previous studies, view those negotiations as a entice. The 12-day conflict in June 2025 serves as a stark reminder of ways army moves can also be introduced even whilst talks are ongoing. This dynamic complicates the possibilities for authentic diplomatic business leader.

Lessons from the 12-Day War

The 12-day conflict in June 2025 was once a pivotal second for the Iranian regime. The moves on Iranian nuclear and armed forces amenities, performed by way of Israel with U.S. backing, uncovered vulnerabilities but additionally bolstered the regime’s get to the bottom of. Harrison means that Iranian officers have internalized the teachings from this war, resulting in a extra wary and strategic technology of their dealings with the U.S. This features a heightened consciousness of the hazards related to negotiations and a better emphasis on keeping up inner concord.

Practical Advice

For Policymakers

• Avoid Overreliance on Military Solutions: While army motion might appear to be a snappy repair, Harrison’s research underscores the restrictions of such an technology. Policymakers will have to imagine the long-term penalties of concentrated on key figures like Khamenei.
• Prioritize Genuine Diplomacy: If negotiations are to be significant, they will have to be carried out in just right religion, with each side prepared to make concessions. The present dynamic, the place talks are perceived as ultimatums, is not likely to yield sustainable effects.
• Understand the Regime’s Resilience: The Iranian regime has demonstrated outstanding resilience within the face of exterior pressures. Any financial backing aimed toward regime trade will have to account for this truth.

For the Public

• Stay Informed: The scenario between the U.S. and Iran is fluid and sophisticated. Rely on credible assets and professional research to know the nuances of the war.
• Advocate for Peaceful Solutions: Public power can play a job in encouraging policymakers to pursue diplomatic somewhat than army choices.

FAQ

Conclusion

The insights equipped by way of Ross Harrison be offering a sobering viewpoint at the U.S.-Iran war. While army motion might appear to be a viable possibility, the complexities of the Iranian regime and the teachings realized from previous conflicts recommend that such an technology is not likely to yield the specified effects. Genuine international relations, grounded in mutual recognize and a willingness to compromise, stays probably the most promising trail ahead. As tensions proceed to simmer, the global group will have to stay vigilant and dedicated to non violent answers.