Kennedy Agyapong Emerges Frontrunner in NPP Flagbearer Race: Analysis of New Study

Introduction

In a significant development within the New Patriotic Party (NPP) landscape, a new comprehensive study suggests that Member of Parliament Kennedy Ohene Agyapong has taken a decisive lead in the race for the party’s flagbearer position. Following the party’s defeat in the 2024 general elections, the search for a new leader to steer the NPP towards recovery has intensified. According to findings released by Dr. Evans Duah, an impartial researcher, chartered accountant, and fiscal economist, Mr. Agyapong is currently the frontrunner based on evolving delegate sentiment.

This report breaks down the methodology, results, and implications of this three-wave national delegate preference study. By tracking changes between August 2025 and January 2026, the research offers a longitudinal view of how party delegates are reassessing their choices in a period of political recalibration. For anyone following the NPP flagbearer race or interested in Ghanaian political trends, these findings provide a data-driven look at the potential outcome of the upcoming presidential primaries.

Key Points

Background

The Context of the Study

The political atmosphere within the New Patriotic Party (NPP) has been charged since the conclusion of the 2024 general elections. As the party looks to rebuild and strategize for the future, the choice of a flagbearer is paramount. Dr. Evans Duah initiated this study to capture the shifting sentiments of the party’s delegates during this critical window of “political recalibration.”

Defining the Electorate

The study focuses on the specific electorate that matters most in the NPP presidential primaries: the delegates. The “universe” of delegates targeted for this research totaled 40,988. This group comprises super delegates, constituency executives, electoral area coordinators, and polling station executives who hold the voting power to select the party’s presidential candidate.

Timeline of Data Collection

The research was conducted in three waves to monitor the evolution of preferences over time:

• Wave 1: August 2025
• Wave 2: Mid-campaign period (specific dates implied)
• Wave 3: January 9, 2026

This timeline allows the study to benchmark current preferences against the results of the party’s 2023 presidential primaries, offering a comparative perspective on how the party base has shifted its loyalty.

Background

Methodology: A Rigorous National Approach

To ensure the findings were representative and accurate, Dr. Duah employed a strict scientific method. The study was not a simple poll but a “multi-wave monitoring design.” This approach acknowledges that political shifts rarely happen instantaneously; rather, they occur progressively.

Coverage and Sample Size

The research achieved comprehensive national coverage across all 16 administrative regions and 276 constituencies. Out of the total universe of 40,988 delegates, the study successfully completed, validated, and retained 31,556 interviews after stringent quality assurance checks. This massive sample size lends significant credibility to the results.

Handling Uncertainty: Best-Case vs. Worst-Case Scenarios

One of the most transparent aspects of this study is its handling of uncertainty. Dr. Duah acknowledged that in political polling, some respondents may be unsure or undisclosed. To address this, the analysis was performed under two lenses:

1. Worst-Case Scenario: A conservative treatment where unsure and undisclosed respondents are treated as unfavorable or neutral.
2. Best-Case Scenario: Where unsure and undisclosed respondents are proportionally distributed among the candidates based on their existing support base.

By providing both scenarios, the study allows for a robust interpretation of movements rather than relying on a single-point estimate.

Analysis

The Numbers: Best-Case Scenario Breakdown

In the final wave of the study (January 2026), the “Best-Case” scenario—which generally reflects the most optimistic distribution of undecided voters—yielded the following national standings among declared and proportionally allocated delegates:

• Kennedy Ohene Agyapong (KOA): 52.59%
• Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB): 36.24%
• Dr. Bryan Acheampong (DBA): 8.60%
• Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum (DYOA): 2.05%
• Kwabena Agyei Agyapong (KAA): 0.52%

Based on these figures, the study concludes that Kennedy Agyapong is on a trajectory to secure the necessary momentum to emerge as the party’s flagbearer, provided these trends hold.

Kennedy Agyapong’s Surge: The “Resilience” Factor

Kennedy Agyapong’s rise is attributed to the highest positive net movement across the three waves. The study links this momentum to “efficient post-election positioning.” Unlike other candidates who may have focused on internal party machinery, Agyapong’s campaign centered on resilience and job creation resonated with delegates.

He recorded steady gains in delegate-dense regions, specifically:

• Ashanti Region
• Greater Accra Region
• Eastern Region
• Central Region
• Western Region
• Volta Region

His strong grassroots engagement in these areas has helped solidify his lead.

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia: The Northern Stronghold Challenge

Former Vice-President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia remains the primary challenger, securing over 36% of the vote. However, the study indicates a “net decline” nationally for the former Vice President. While he maintains dominance in his core Northern strongholds, the analysis reveals significant erosion in the Southern and Middle-belt regions.

Delegates in these areas are reassessing “electoral viability” following the 2024 defeat. The study suggests that limited technological inroads into southern regions, combined with structural regional weighting, constrained his ability to regain nationwide momentum.

The Role of Other Contenders

Dr. Bryan Acheampong is characterized as a “systemic shaper” rather than a direct challenger. His support followed a non-linear path—declining initially before rebounding. His support base is anchored in organizational networks and balanced competitive areas. While he has narrowed margins in specific constituencies, his support is insufficient to mount a serious challenge for the lead.

Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum and Kwabena Agyei Agyapong hold marginal support. Dr. Adutwum’s support is concentrated in pockets of Ashanti and Greater Accra but has failed to translate into broad national appeal. Kwabena Agyei Agyapong ranks last with sub-one percent support, described as largely symbolic without discernible regional clustering.

Practical Advice

Interpreting Political Polls and Studies

For readers following the NPP flagbearer race, it is essential to understand how to interpret longitudinal studies like Dr. Duah’s. Here are practical steps to ensure you are analyzing political data correctly:

• Look at the Methodology: Always check the sample size and coverage. A study covering 31,556 delegates across all regions is highly reliable compared to smaller, anecdotal surveys.
• Understand Scenarios: “Best-Case” and “Worst-Case” scenarios help you understand the margin of error. In this case, even the conservative estimates likely place Agyapong in the lead, though perhaps with a smaller margin.
• Watch the Trends: A snapshot is useful, but a three-wave study is better. Look for the *direction* of movement. Agyapong’s positive net movement is more significant than a static high number.

For NPP Delegates and Stakeholders

For those involved in the party, this data suggests a shift in what the base is looking for. The study explicitly mentions that the post-election reassessment prioritizes:

• Electability: Can the candidate win a general election?
• Coalition Reach: Can the candidate attract votes beyond the party’s traditional base?
• Regional Stability: Can the candidate balance regional interests?

Campaigns that focus on these themes are likely to perform better as the primaries approach.

FAQ

Conclusion

The study by Dr. Evans Duah paints a clear picture of the current state of the NPP flagbearer race. It indicates a transition from a period of fluid reassessment following the 2024 election loss to a phase of structured consolidation. Kennedy Agyapong has emerged as the frontrunner, capitalizing on the party’s desire for a resilient leader with broad coalition reach.

While Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia remains a formidable contender with a solid base in the North, the erosion of support in the South highlights the challenges facing his campaign. As the party moves closer to the primaries, this data suggests that the delegate base is coalescing around a candidate they believe can lead the NPP to victory in the next election cycle. The findings provide a factual terrain for the primaries ahead, suggesting that Kennedy Agyapong is currently on track to secure the party’s ticket.