Kennedy Agyapong Might Ballot Fewer Votes Than in 2023 NPP Number One – Osei Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu

Introduction

The internal dynamics of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) are once again the subject of intense political discourse. A recent statement by Osei Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu, the former Majority Leader and Member of Parliament for Suame, has sparked a fresh debate regarding the party’s upcoming presidential primaries. Specifically, Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu has predicted that Kennedy Agyapong, the prominent Member of Parliament for Assin Central, may secure fewer votes in the upcoming contest compared to his performance in the 2023 presidential primaries.

This prediction is not merely a guess; it is rooted in an analysis of historical voting patterns, the impact of candidate withdrawals, and the current political climate within the party. In this article, we will dissect the former Majority Leader’s comments, explore the background of the 2023 primaries, and analyze the factors that could influence the vote share of key aspirants like Kennedy Agyapong and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia. We will also provide practical insights into how internal party elections work in Ghana and answer frequently asked questions about the NPP’s electoral college system.

Key Points

Background

To understand the significance of Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s predictions, one must look back at the New Patriotic Party’s 2023 presidential primaries. This election was a defining moment for the party as it sought to select a flagbearer for the 2024 general elections. The race featured heavyweights, including the then-incumbent Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, Kennedy Agyapong, and Alan Kyerematen.

The 2023 Primaries Landscape

The 2023 primaries were characterized by high tension and intense campaigning. Kennedy Agyapong positioned himself as the anti-establishment candidate, campaigning on a platform of radical change and economic revitalization. His campaign resonated with a significant portion of the party base, allowing him to secure a substantial 37.43% of the total valid votes cast. Dr. Bawumia won the contest with 61.47%, but Agyapong’s performance was viewed as a strong showing for a non-incumbent challenging the sitting Vice President.

The Alan Kyerematen Factor

One cannot analyze the 2023 results without mentioning Alan Kyerematen. A former trade minister and a long-time presidential hopeful, Kyerematen was considered a front-runner. However, he withdrew from the race citing issues with the vetting process and alleged intimidation. Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s analysis suggests that Kyerematen’s withdrawal played a critical role in consolidating the “change” vote behind Kennedy Agyapong, artificially inflating his numbers in the final tally.

Analysis

Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s assertion that Kennedy Agyapong will poll fewer votes in the upcoming contest requires a granular analysis of the current political environment. His comments on Asempa FM provide several layers of insight into the mechanics of NPP internal elections.

Discontent as a Political Currency

The former Majority Leader correctly identified that Kennedy Agyapong’s 37% in 2023 was fueled by “popular public dissatisfaction.” In political science, protest votes are common when an electorate feels the status quo has failed. At that time, the NPP government was grappling with economic headwinds. Agyapong capitalized on this dissatisfaction. However, as the political cycle resets, the question becomes whether that same level of dissatisfaction exists. If the economic outlook stabilizes or if the narrative shifts, the protest vote may dissipate, leading to a lower ballot count for Agyapong.

The Myth of Parliamentary Endorsements

Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s dismissal of organized parliamentary backing is significant. In Ghanaian politics, there is often a perception that Members of Parliament (MPs) act as “skirt and blouse” agents—publicly supporting one candidate while secretly working for another. His statement, “No one spoke to me about asking MPs to support a specific candidate,” suggests that the NPP’s internal democracy is more organic than orchestrated. This implies that Kennedy Agyapong cannot rely on a block vote from the parliamentary caucus and must win based on individual trust and messaging.

The Bawumia Momentum

The most striking part of the analysis is the projection of nearly 70% for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia. This figure is not arbitrary. It suggests that Bawumia has consolidated support in key areas, particularly the Ashanti Region—the NPP’s stronghold. Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu notes that Bawumia’s message “resonates with the people.” This indicates a shift from the 2023 narrative where Bawumia was often on the defensive regarding the economy. If Bawumia has successfully reframed his message, he is likely to attract not only his core base but also undecided delegates who prioritize electability and party unity.

Practical Advice

For political observers, party delegates, and those interested in Ghanaian politics, understanding the nuances of this prediction is crucial. Here is a practical breakdown of how to interpret these developments:

1. Focus on Delegates, Not General Voters

It is important to remember that NPP primaries are decided by an Electoral College comprising constituency executives, electoral area coordinators, and MPs. While public opinion matters, the specific concerns of these delegates are paramount. Kennedy Agyapong’s strategy relies on appealing to the grassroots, but if the delegates perceive stability and competence as more valuable than radical change, the vote share will shift.

2. The “Ashanti Region” Litmus Test

As Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu highlighted, the Ashanti Region is the kingmaker. Any candidate aspiring to win the NPP flagbearership must poll heavily in this region. If Kennedy Agyapong fails to make inroads here or maintain his 2023 numbers, reaching the 37% threshold again will be mathematically difficult. Observers should monitor campaign activities specifically in Kumasi and its surrounding districts.

3. Trust Over Noise

The advice regarding trust versus public declarations is practical for voters in any democracy. Delegates are often wary of “bandwagon” politics. A candidate who secures the quiet trust of the voting base often outperforms one who relies solely on media fanfare. This explains why Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu is skeptical of the “loudest team” winning.

FAQ

Conclusion

Osei Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu’s assessment of the NPP political landscape offers a sobering perspective on the upcoming presidential primaries. His prediction that Kennedy Agyapong may see a decline in his vote share compared to 2023 is based on the erosion of the “protest vote” factor and the consolidation of support around Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia. By highlighting the importance of trust over public endorsements and the critical role of the Ashanti Region, Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu has provided a framework for understanding how the NPP will select its next leader. As the party moves closer to the election, the battle for the trust of the delegates will undoubtedly intensify, but the current indicators suggest a challenging path for Agyapong to replicate his previous success.