Madagascar Army Unit Seizes Control in Crisis Over Impeachment Vote Against President Andry Rajoelina

Introduction

On October 14, 2025, Madagascar faced a seismic political crisis when the CAPSAT military unit declared it had seized power following a National Assembly vote to question President Andry Rajoelina for alleged embezzlement. This unprecedented move, rooted in months of civil unrest, marks a critical turning point in the nation’s fragile democracy. The incident underscores escalating tensions between civilian institutions and the military, raising urgent questions about the rule of law and governance in the island nation. This article examines the events leading to the coup, their implications for Madagascar’s stability, and the global reactions to this constitutional emergency.

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Analysis

**The Role of CAPSAT in Madagascar’s Political History**

The rapid response unit CAPSAT (Cesation de l’Armée Professionnelle Spécialisée) has long been a shadowy force in Malagasy politics. First gaining prominence during the 2009 coup that ousted incumbent President Marc Ravalomanana, CAPSAT has since operated as a politically connected but constitutionally unaccountable entity. Its dual role as both security force and political actor has enabled repeated interventions in governance, often bypassing parliamentary checks.

**Timeline of the Crisis**

The crisis escalated after the National Assembly, dominated by Rajoelina’s political allies, voted 130-33 to impeach the president. The motion accused him of “economic misconduct” and dereliction of duty, triggering a constitutional emergency. Rajoelina dismissed the vote as “illegitimate,” prompting anti-government protests and military defections. Tensions peaked when CAPSAT, allegedly sympathetic to the opposition, seized control of national administration offices in Antananarivo.

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Summary

– **Triggering Event**: The National Assembly’s impeachment vote against Rajoelina, rejected by the presidency.
– **Military Intervention**: CAPSAT seized power, vowing to form a transitional committee.
– **President Rajoelina’s Response**: The president retreated to undisclosed “secure locations,” citing threats on his life.
– **International Reactions**: Regional powers and global organizations condemned the coup, urging dialogue and UN monitoring.

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Key Points

1. **Constitutional Violation**: The National Assembly’s vote under the 2014 Malagasy Constitution requires a supermajority—met in this case (130/163 seats).
2. **CAPSAT’s Political Leverage**: The unit’s history of coups underscores its disproportional influence over national governance.
3. **Humanitarian Concerns**: Protests and curfews risk worsening Madagascar’s economic crisis, already strained by climate shocks.
4. **Judicial Paralysis**: The High Constitutional Court’s delayed ruling on the impeachment vote creates a governance vacuum.
5. **Regional Precedent**: The coup mirrors destabilizing trends in West Africa, where military takeovers have surged since 2021.

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Practical Advice

– **For Civilians**: Avoid public demonstrations unless critical supplies (food, water) are at risk. Monitor curfews enforced by mixed military-protester forces.
– **For Businesses**: Postpone investments until governance stability is restored; diversify supply chains to reduce exposure to Malagasy instability.
– **For Journalists**: Prioritize fact-checking amid claims of “assassination attempts” on Rajoelina—a tactic historically used to delegitimize critic regimes.

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Points of Caution

– **Violence Escalation**: Security forces have clashed with protesters in past crises, risking civilian casualties.
– **Economic Fallout**: Madagascar’s tourism-driven economy faces declines as international visitors cancel trips amid safety fears.
– **Democratic Backsliding**: The coup normalizes military interference, threatening long-term political reforms.

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Comparison to Historical Coups

While the 2009 coup (which installed Rajoelina) involved parliamentary and military actors, the 2025 crisis bypasses parliamentary oversight entirely. Unlike the 2009 transition, CAPSAT’s 2025 declaration lacks a legislative mandate, risking prolonged instability. The current scenario also involves more organized civil resistance, with opposition groups leveraging social media to mobilize support.

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Legal Implications

The coup breaches Article 55 of Madagascar’s constitution, which prohibits military intervention in civilian affairs. Rijoelina’s refusal to vacate office violates Article 65, triggering automatic dismissal of ministers. If the High Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment vote, CAPSAT could face international sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution 2617 for unconstitutional actions.

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Conclusion

The seizure of power by CAPSAT plunges Madagascar into its deepest crisis since independence. With Rajoelina’s coalition fractured and the court’s ruling pending, the nation teeters between constitutional transition and authoritarian rule. The international community’s response will determine whether this episode sparks renewed democratic engagement or entrenches military dominance. Lessons from West Africa suggest that delayed diplomatic intervention risks both: protracted violence and the erosion of multifaceted governance.

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FAQ

**Q: What is CAPSAT?**
A: CAPSAT is a specialized Malagasy military unit historically involved in political transitions. Established in 1996, it facilitated the 2009 coup and remains a pivotal paramilitary actor.

**Q: Is President Rajoelina still in power?**
A: No. Following the CAPSAT takeover, Rajoelina’s government lost control of state institutions. His current status remains unclear, though he insists on legitimate authority.

**Q: How does this affect foreign aid?**
A: The U.S. and EU have suspended aid tied to democratic governance metrics unless a constitutional resolution occurs within 60 days.

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Sources

1. AFP (2025-10-14). “Madagascar army seizes power after impeachment vote against Rajoelina.”
2. BBC News (2025-10-14). “Analysis: Madagascar’s constitutional crisis explained.”
3. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). “Madagascar Crisis Update.”

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