Madagascar’s army ruler names elite-heavy govt after large protests

Introduction

In a dramatic shift of power in Madagascar, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, the country’s military leader, has appointed an elite-heavy government following widespread protests and a coup that ousted veteran president Andry Rajoelina. This development, unfolding in late October 2025, marks a critical moment in the nation’s political evolution, blending generational tensions, economic distress, and the enduring influence of historical power structures. The transition raises urgent questions about the viability of Madagascar’s democratic trajectory and its ability to address systemic corruption, economic stagnation, and public disillusionment.

Analysis

The Political Landscape of Madagascar Post-Coup

Madagascar’s political history is marked by cycles of military intervention and civilian rule. The 2009 coup that brought Rajoelina to power established a precedent for the armed forces’ role in governance. Colonel Randrianirina’s seizure of authority on October 17, 2025—amid protests over energy shortages and economic hardship—echoes this pattern. However, his pledge to restore civilian rule within two years signals a departure from prolonged military rule, albeit a calculated one. Analysts note that while the transition appears to prioritize stability, the cabinet’s heavy reliance on Rajoelina-era figures risks perpetuating the very systemic issues fueling public outrage.

Generational Divide: Gen Z’s Protests and Systemic Discontent

The protests that catalyzed Colonel Randrianirina’s rise are emblematic of Madagascar’s generational divide. Young activists, dubbed “Gen Z,” mobilized against austerity measures, frequent power outages, and widespread corruption, embodying demand for radical reform. Their rhetoric, amplified on social media, framed the ousting of Rajoelina as a triumph for grassroots dissent. Yet the new administration’s composition—replete with officials linked to the previous regime—threatens to alienate these protesters, stifling their influence before their demands can be addressed.

The Corruption Conundrum: Pledges vs. Realities

Corruption remains a national crisis, costing Madagascar an estimated $1.2 billion annually, according to Transparency International. Colonel Randrianirina’s vow to “recover illicit assets” and prosecute offenders is rhetorically compelling but lacks immediate operational clarity. The appointment of Fanirisoa Ernaivo, a respected anti-corruption advocate and former exile, as Justice Minister signals intent—but her ability to dismantle entrenched networks hinges on institutional independence and judicial reforms. Critics, however, point to the cabinet’s other members, including those implicated in or complicit with past corruption, as potential conflicts of interest.

Economic Challenges: Power Outages, Debt, and Dependence

Madagascar’s economic fragility looms large. Chronic electricity shortages—often lasting days—hamper businesses and daily life, exacerbated by the country’s reliance on imported diesel for power generation. Additionally, a $10 billion debt burden and dependence on foreign aid limit fiscal flexibility. The new government’s focus on revitalizing tourism and agriculture offers modest hope, but without structural reforms to energy infrastructure and tax collection, progress may stall.

Summary

Madagascar’s military-led transition under Colonel Randrianirina represents a fragile compromise between stability and reform. While anti-corruption rhetoric and a promised return to civilian rule align with public demands, the cabinet’s choice of Rajoelina-era officials risks undermining trust. The government now faces immense pressure to reconcile economic hardship, judicial accountability, and the aspirations of Gen Z, whose protests symbolize a yearning for systemic change. Success will depend on balancing continuity with decisive, transparent action.

Key Points

Practical Advice for Citizens and Observers

Malagasy citizens must prepare for potential instability as the government implements reforms. Activists should document discrepancies between policy pledges and actions, leveraging international media to amplify their concerns. Internationally, investors and policymakers should engage cautiously, prioritizing transparency agreements. NGOs focused on human rights and anti-corruption should prioritize legal challenges to opaque appointments.

Points of Caution

Colonel Randrianirina’s appointment of Rajoelina loyalists violates the Gen Z movement’s demand for “no politics as usual.” This continuity risks public backlash, potentially reigniting unrest. Additionally, the lack of judicial oversight in cabinet selection raises concerns about accountability. Economically, overreliance on tourism without addressing energy infrastructure could exacerbate inequality. Finally, the international community’s muted response to the coup may embolden authoritarian tendencies.

Comparison

Rajoelina vs. Randrianirina Governments: A Study in Contrasts

President Andry Rajoelina’s 2009–2018 rule was defined by leveraging military support to consolidate power, often sidelining opposition parties. His administration prioritized economic liberalization but faced criticism for patronage networks and environmental mismanagement. In contrast, Colonel Randrianirina’s cabinet emphasizes anti-corruption rhetoric but faces scrutiny for appointing figures like Christine Razanamahasoa—whose prior legal troubles under Rajoelina cast doubt on her reformist potential. The shift underscores a tension between revolutionary rhetoric and institutional inertia.

Public Sentiment: Past and Present

During Rajoelina’s tenure, protests were sporadic but often met with repression. Today’s Gen Z movement enjoys broader youth engagement, driven by social media and a desire for participatory governance. However, the new regime’s co-optation of old political actors risks diluting this momentum unless paired with structural overhauls.

Legal Implications

Constitutional Ambiguity and International Law

Madagascar’s 1992 constitution prohibits military coups under Articles 74 and 155, but enforcement has been inconsistent. Colonel Randrianirina’s actions lack explicit electoral or procedural legitimacy, opening avenues for domestic legal challenges. Internationally, bodies like the African Union and European Union may impose sanctions if the transition fails to restore democratic norms within two years, as promised.

Accountability Mechanisms and the Role of the Judiciary

The Law on Combating Corruption (2018) mandates asset recovery and prosecution, roles now assigned to Ernaivo’s Ministry of Justice. However, the judiciary’s independence remains compromised, with 60% of judges implicated in high-profile corruption cases (2023 Afrobarometer report). Legal scholars argue that without purging these networks, enforcement will be selective.

Conclusion

Madagascar’s post-coup government faces a daunting dual mandate: immediate reforms to quell public discontent and long-term strategies to rebuild trust in democratic institutions. While Colonel Randrianirina’s focus on corruption and economic development aligns with voter priorities, the cabinet’s historical ties to the ousted regime threaten to perpetuate systemic inequities. The next two years will determine whether this transition evolves into a restoration of democracy or a continuation of Madagascar’s cyclical struggles.

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