Manasseh Azure Awuni’s Analysis: 7 Factors Favoring Bawumia as NPP’s Best Hope

Introduction

In a comprehensive analysis published by Manasseh Azure Awuni, the respected Ghanaian journalist and commentator outlines seven compelling reasons why Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia stands as the most viable candidate to lead the New Patriotic Party (NPP) into future electoral contests. This assessment comes at a critical juncture for the NPP, which recently lost both presidential and parliamentary elections after serving two consecutive terms in power.

Key Points

Background

The NPP’s recent electoral defeat has triggered an intense internal debate about the party’s future direction. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, who served as Vice President under President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, emerged as the NPP’s presidential candidate in 2024 but lost to John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Despite this defeat, Bawumia’s performance—securing approximately 42% of the national vote—has positioned him as a formidable figure within the party’s leadership discussions.

Analysis

1. Tested and Most Marketed Candidate

Bawumia brings invaluable electoral experience to the table. Having contested and lost the 2024 presidential election, he has already undergone the rigorous testing that comes with national campaigns. This experience is particularly valuable when compared to untested candidates who would be venturing into their first major electoral battle.

The data supports this assessment. In the 2024 election, despite what many consider the worst performance by a government in Ghana’s recent history, Bawumia secured 4,877,611 votes, representing 41.75% of valid votes cast. This performance demonstrates his ability to maintain significant support even during challenging political circumstances.

Furthermore, Bawumia’s home region, the North East Region, was the only region in Northern Ghana where the NPP won the presidential election and did not have minority parliamentary seats. This regional strength provides a foundation upon which the party can build for future contests.

2. The NPP’s Unity and Ghana’s Interest

Perhaps one of Bawumia’s most significant advantages is his demonstrated commitment to party unity over personal ambition. During the tense period following the 2024 elections, when tensions threatened to spill over, Bawumia took the decisive step of conceding defeat even before the Electoral Commission declared the presidential results for the first constituency.

This act of statesmanship, while criticized by some within his party as premature, demonstrated the kind of leadership quality essential for maintaining party cohesion. In an era where some party members operate with the mentality of “it is either I get it, or I destroy it,” Bawumia has shown he can put collective interests above personal gain.

3. A Sacrificial Lamb Who Paid His Dues

Critics who label Bawumia as an “outsider” to the NPP overlook his substantial contributions to the party. When the NPP contested the 2012 presidential election results in court, Bawumia was the sacrificial lamb who testified and faced cross-examination live on national television. For someone with future political ambitions, this was a courageous and potentially career-limiting decision.

During the 2016 campaign, Bawumia and his wife, Samira, campaigned tirelessly for the NPP, absorbing vicious attacks from opponents to shield the presidential candidate. Today, while many hold him responsible for unfulfilled campaign promises, it’s important to recognize that he was not the sole beneficiary of the 2016 victory. Many current ministers, parliamentarians, and those with lucrative government contracts owe their positions to that electoral success.

4. History and Pattern Favor Bawumia

Ghana’s democratic history since 1992 shows a consistent pattern: no party has served more than two consecutive four-year terms. The NPP’s defeat in 2024 follows this historical pattern rather than representing a unique rejection of Bawumia specifically.

Looking at the trajectories of past presidential candidates reveals an interesting pattern. President Mahama lost in 2016, lost again in 2020, but won in 2024 on his third attempt. Similarly, President Akufo-Addo lost in 2008, lost again in 2012, but won in 2016 on his third try. Bawumia, with his nearly 5 million votes to build upon, is on a similar trajectory.

5. Sins of the Last NPP Administration

A significant challenge for Bawumia is the collective responsibility he shares for the economic difficulties during the last administration. As Vice President and Chairman of the Economic Management Team, he cannot escape accountability for the hardships caused by market collapse, excessive taxation (including the controversial E-Levy), and reckless borrowing and spending.

However, when examining other flagbearer contenders like Kennedy Agyapong, Dr. Bryan Acheampong, and Dr. Osei Yaw Adutwum, it becomes clear that they too share responsibility. These three were members of parliament during critical votes, including the passage of the E-Levy. In the second term, when the NPP had a slim majority of 138 seats to the NDC’s 137, any one of these MPs could have blocked the E-Levy by voting against it. Their current criticism of Bawumia appears somewhat hypocritical given their own roles in approving the administration’s economic policies.

6. Akufo-Addo’s Puppet Tag

One persistent criticism of Bawumia has been that voting for him would extend the Akufo-Addo dynasty. However, history shows that such assumptions don’t always hold. President Atta Mills, for instance, was not a puppet of Rawlings, despite initial concerns.

Moreover, according to internal sources, President Akufo-Addo has adopted a more independent posture in this race compared to previous contests when he was clearly backing Bawumia. This suggests that Bawumia may have greater autonomy than his critics assume.

7. Coherence in Messaging

Among all candidates vying for the NPP’s flagbearership, Bawumia has presented the most coherent campaign message. While some of his promises may be considered untenable, his messaging consistency surpasses that of his competitors, both in the last primaries, the last election, and in the current campaign.

Practical Advice

For NPP delegates considering their choice for the next flagbearer, several factors should be weighed:

1. **Electoral Performance**: Consider candidates’ actual vote-getting ability rather than theoretical popularity
2. **Party Unity**: Evaluate who can best maintain cohesion within the party’s various factions
3. **Historical Patterns**: Recognize that persistence through multiple election cycles has historically been rewarded in Ghanaian politics
4. **Responsibility Assessment**: Fairly assess each candidate’s role in past administration decisions
5. **Messaging Clarity**: Consider which candidate presents the most coherent and consistent vision for the party

FAQ

Conclusion

Manasseh Azure Awuni’s analysis presents a compelling case for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as the NPP’s most strategic choice for future electoral contests. His combination of electoral experience, demonstrated commitment to party unity, historical trajectory, and superior campaign messaging positions him as the candidate best equipped to lead the NPP back to power.

While challenges remain, particularly regarding his association with the previous administration’s economic difficulties, Bawumia’s strengths appear to outweigh his weaknesses when compared to other potential candidates. The NPP faces a critical decision that will shape its future, and the factors outlined in this analysis suggest that Bawumia offers the party its best opportunity for electoral success in upcoming cycles.