Mixing E-Transmission of Results with Manual Transmission Will Cause Confusion – Atiku

In a significant development in Nigeria’s ongoing electoral reform discourse, former Vice President and prominent opposition figure Atiku Abubakar has publicly rejected the legislative approval for a hybrid system that combines electronic and manual transmission of election results. His stance, articulated following a strategic meeting with former military Head of State General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida, highlights deep-seated concerns about procedural clarity and trust in Nigeria’s voting system. This article provides a comprehensive, SEO-optimized analysis of Atiku’s position, the Senate’s decision, the technical and political undercurrents, and what it means for Nigeria’s democratic process.

Key Points: Atiku’s Stance and the Core Controversy

Atiku Abubakar’s opposition centers on a fundamental belief that a mixed transmission model is inherently flawed. His key arguments and the context of the debate can be summarized as follows:

• Rejection of Hybrid Transmission: Atiku explicitly stated he does not support the Senate’s approved method of mixing digital (e-transmission) and manual (handbook/paper-based) transmission of election results, predicting it will “cause more confusion.”
• Call for Opposition Unity: He urged all opposition political parties to unite in challenging this approach, framing it as a collective fight for electoral integrity.
• Context of the Senate Approval: His reaction targets a specific legislative approval by the Nigerian Senate, which amended aspects of the electoral law to permit this dual-channel results transmission system.
• Dismissal of ADC Zoning: In a related political matter, Atiku downplayed the significance of the “zoning” principle (a rotational presidency agreement) within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) party’s presidential primary process.
• Strategic Meeting with IBB: His comments followed a closed-door meeting with General Ibrahim Babangida, a key elder statesman and former military ruler, suggesting high-level consultations on national issues, including electoral matters.

This position places Atiku at odds with the legislative branch and aligns with a segment of civil society and technocrats who advocate for a single, transparent, and auditable results transmission system.

Background: Nigeria’s Electoral Transmission Journey

The 2022 Electoral Act Amendment and Results Transmission

To understand the current debate, one must revisit the Electoral Act 2022. This landmark legislation was designed to address gaps identified in previous elections, particularly the 2019 polls. A central innovation was the mandate for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to transmit election results electronically. The intent was to enhance speed, transparency, and reduce opportunities for result manipulation during collation.

However, the Act’s implementation became contentious. During the 2023 general elections, INEC utilized a results viewing portal (IReV) for uploading polling unit results. While this represented a step toward e-transmission, the final collation and declaration at higher levels (LGA, State, National) still involved significant manual processes. The ambiguity in the law regarding the exclusive use of electronic transmission for final results created room for interpretation.

The Senate’s “Hybrid” Approval

In a move that sparked debate, the Nigerian Senate passed an amendment that effectively endorsed a hybrid results transmission system. This means that while results from polling units might be uploaded electronically, the subsequent stages of collation, tabulation, and declaration at the collation centers could involve manual verification and compilation against physical, signed result sheets (the “handbook”). Proponents argue this creates a necessary paper trail and backup in case of system failures or cyber threats.

Critics, including Atiku, contend that this hybrid approach is a recipe for electoral confusion. They argue it reintroduces the very vulnerabilities—like human interference, delays, and lack of real-time transparency—that digital transmission aimed to solve. It also, they claim, fails to provide a single, immutable source of truth for results.

Atiku’s Political Context

Atiku Abubakar, as the presidential candidate of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 election, has a vested interest in electoral integrity. His camp challenged the outcome of that election, partly citing irregularities in the results collation and transmission process. His current stance is therefore viewed through a political lens, but it resonates with technical experts who have long warned against a two-track system. His meeting with General Babangida, a figure with immense political influence and historical context on Nigeria’s electoral challenges, adds weight to his intervention, suggesting a bipartisan or elder-statesman concern for the electoral framework.

Analysis: Why a Mixed System Sparks “Confusion”

Atiku’s assertion that mixing transmission methods will cause “confusion” is not merely rhetorical; it points to several operational and perception-based risks inherent in a hybrid model.

1. The “Two Sources of Truth” Problem

The core technical flaw is the potential for discrepant results. If electronic data from polling units differs from the manually collated figures at a collation center, which one prevails? What is the protocol for reconciliation? A hybrid system without a legally unambiguous hierarchy of sources invites disputes. In a high-stakes election, even minor numerical differences between the electronic upload and the manual tally can fuel allegations of rigging, eroding public trust in the final outcome.

2. Operational Delays and Logistical Nightmares

Manual collation is inherently slower. Requiring officials to cross-check electronic results against physical sheets at multiple levels (Ward, LGA, State) introduces significant delays. This undermines the key advantage of e-transmission: rapid result declaration. In Nigeria’s context, where election security is often stretched thin, prolonged collation periods increase the risk of tampering, intimidation, and logistical failures, thereby creating practical confusion on the ground.

3. Erosion of Public Confidence and Transparency

A primary goal of electoral reform is to allow citizens to independently verify results. A single, real-time electronic portal (like a perfected IReV) enables voters, journalists, and observers to track results from polling units to the final tally. A hybrid system obscures this. The manual stages become “black boxes” where the public cannot see the process, leading to suspicion. The confusion is not just technical but perceptual—citizens may not know which results to believe, damaging confidence in INEC.

4. Legal and Judicial Ambiguity

In the event of an election petition, a hybrid system complicates the evidence. Courts would need to determine the admissibility and primacy of electronic records versus manual certificates. This could lead to protracted legal battles where the validity of results hinges on which transmission method is deemed superior, creating legal confusion and potentially delaying the resolution of disputes.

5. Undermining Technological Investment

Nigeria has invested in technology for voter accreditation (via the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System – BVAS) and results transmission. A hybrid model partially negates this investment by reverting to manual processes for the most critical stage—collation. It signals a lack of commitment to a full digital ecosystem, potentially discouraging future innovation and leaving the system vulnerable at its weakest link.

Practical Advice for Stakeholders

Given the high stakes, various actors must consider practical steps to navigate or reform this landscape.

For INEC (The Electoral Management Body)

• Clarify the Hierarchy: INEC must issue unequivocal, legally sound regulations and guidelines that specify the primacy of electronically transmitted results from polling units. Manual collation should be strictly for verification against the electronic record, not for creating an alternative tally.
• Enhance System Redundancy: Invest in robust, offline-capable systems for collation centers to ensure electronic transmission is not disrupted by connectivity issues. The “manual” should be a fallback for data entry if systems fail, not a parallel process.
• Public Communication: Launch an aggressive public education campaign explaining the exact, step-by-step results process, including how discrepancies will be resolved. Transparency is the antidote to confusion.

For Political Parties and Candidates

• Agent Training and Deployment: Ensure party agents are thoroughly trained not just on polling day, but on the entire collation and transmission chain. They must understand the procedures at ward, LGA, and state collation centers to effectively monitor and document the process.
• Parallel Tabulation: Maintain your own parallel, real-time tabulation based on uploaded results from trusted monitors. This creates an independent benchmark against which INEC’s final collation can be checked.
• Coalition Building: As Atiku advised, opposition parties should coordinate on this issue. A unified front demanding clarity on transmission protocols is more powerful than fragmented complaints after an election.

For Civil Society and Media

• Focused Monitoring: Shift monitoring resources to collation centers, not just polling units. The “confusion” Atiku warns of happens here.
• Data Analysis: Develop tools to scrape and analyze the IReV portal in real-time, comparing uploaded results with eventual declared outcomes. Flag anomalies for public and legal scrutiny.
• Advocacy for Legislative Clarity: Continue to advocate for a clear, unambiguous Electoral Act that mandates end-to-end electronic transmission with a verifiable, non-negotiable electronic record as the basis for results.

FAQ: Addressing Common Questions

Does the current Nigerian law allow for manual transmission?

Yes, as amended. The Electoral Act 2022 empowers INEC to determine the mode of transmission. The Senate’s approval reinforces that INEC can use a combination of electronic and manual methods. The controversy is over whether this specific hybrid approach is advisable or legally sound for final result declaration.

What is “zoning” and why did Atiku dismiss its relevance in the ADC?

Zoning is an unwritten, informal power-sharing agreement among major Nigerian political parties where the presidency is rotated among the country’s six geopolitical zones to promote national unity and equitable development. Atiku’s dismissal of its importance in the ADC’s primary suggests he believes presidential candidacy should be based on individual merit and nationwide appeal rather than regional rotation, a comment that may resonate beyond the ADC and touch on broader debates about Nigeria’s federal character principle.

Is a fully electronic system vulnerable to hacking?

This is a critical concern. A fully electronic system requires the highest levels of cybersecurity, system transparency (open-source auditability), and a robust, verifiable paper trail for every vote (like a Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail – VVPAT). The hybrid model’s advocates cite hacking fears as a reason to keep manual collation. However, critics argue that a poorly designed hybrid system is vulnerable at the manual interface points, and that a well-secured, end-to-end auditable electronic system is more transparent and secure than a process with opaque manual stages. The solution lies in system design, not in reverting to manual methods.

Could Atiku’s opposition influence future electoral reforms?

Potentially, yes. As a leading opposition figure with national reach, his voice amplifies a critique shared by many technocrats and observers. If the opposition unites as he urged, they could lobby for a future amendment to the Electoral Act that mandates