Neither Russia nor France: One West African Nation Walks a Diplomatic Tightrope

Introduction

In the volatile landscape of West African geopolitics, a new strategy is emerging. While traditional powers like France watch their influence wane and new actors like Russia gain ground, one nation is refusing to pick a side. Togo, a small coastal state in West Africa, is executing a delicate balancing act, maintaining ties with Western allies while simultaneously cultivating relationships with the military juntas of the Sahel. This article analyzes Togo’s multi-vector foreign policy, its strategic use of its deep-water port, and how this diplomatic tightrope walk is deeply intertwined with domestic political maneuvering.

Key Points

Background

To understand Togo’s current diplomatic posture, one must look at the broader regional context. West Africa is currently facing a historic fragmentation. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the regional political and economic union, has been severely tested by a series of military coups between 2020 and 2023 in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. In January 2024, these three nations formally announced their withdrawal from ECOWAS, forming a new confederation known as the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES).

This split has created two opposing blocs. On one side is ECOWAS, backed traditionally by France and the West, advocating for a return to constitutional order. On the other side are the Sahelian juntas, who have expelled French troops and turned to Russia for security assistance. Caught in the middle is Togo, a nation that has historically been considered one of France’s most reliable allies in the region. However, under President Faure Gnassingbé, who has ruled since 2005, Lomé has begun to chart a course that defies traditional expectations.

The Benin Coup Attempt

The fragility of the region was highlighted on December 7, when a failed military coup attempt occurred in neighboring Benin. The leader of the putsch, Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri, reportedly fled across the border into Togo. The opacity of Togo’s role in this event is characteristic of its foreign policy. While Togo did not officially support the coup against Beninese President Patrice Talon—relations between the two are guarded—it reportedly facilitated the transit of the coup leader to a safer location, likely in Burkina Faso or Niger. This incident demonstrated Togo’s unique position as a bridge between ECOWAS members and the breakaway AES states.

Analysis

Togo’s foreign policy is a masterclass in hedging bets. President Gnassingbé is navigating a geopolitical minefield by refusing to be pigeonholed. This strategy is visible in two distinct diplomatic tracks: one facing West (France) and one facing East (Russia).

The Russian Pivot

On November 20, 2024, President Gnassingbé traveled to Moscow for a high-profile meeting with Vladimir Putin. The outcome was a significant defense agreement. Unlike other Sahelian nations that have hired the Africa Corps (the successor to the Wagner Group), Togo’s agreement is framed as a standard military partnership. It includes provisions for intelligence sharing and joint naval exercises. Crucially, it grants Russian naval vessels access to the Port of Lomé.

The Port of Lomé is one of the deepest container ports in West Africa. Its strategic value cannot be overstated. For the landlocked Sahelian states of the AES, Lomé represents a vital gateway to the Atlantic Ocean. By securing access for Russia, Togo positions itself as an indispensable logistics node in Russia’s expanding footprint in Africa, without fully severing ties with the West.

Preserving Western Ties

Just three weeks before the Moscow visit, Gnassingbé was in Paris, welcomed by President Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée Palace. This meeting aimed to strengthen bilateral cooperation. Togolese officials insist that their engagement with Russia is not a rejection of the West, but rather a “natural diversification” of partners. This argument holds some weight. Togo, along with Gabon, recently joined the Commonwealth while remaining a member of the International Organisation of La Francophonie. This “dual membership” strategy allows Togo to access Anglophone and Francophone markets simultaneously.

Domestic Political Engineering

However, this external balancing act serves a critical internal purpose: regime survival. In 2024, President Gnassingbé pushed through a controversial constitutional reform. This reform abolished the directly elected presidency (which had term limits) and shifted executive powers to a new role: “President of the Council of Ministers” (Prime Minister).

Gnassingbé then stepped down as President to assume this new, powerful Prime Minister role. Because the new constitution does not impose term limits on this position, he can theoretically remain in power indefinitely. This maneuver sparked protests, which were swiftly suppressed. Critics, journalists, and opposition figures have faced intimidation or prosecution. By cultivating ties with Russia and other non-Western partners, Gnassingbé signals to the European Union and the US that he has alternatives, potentially reducing the likelihood of severe sanctions over his domestic power grab.

Practical Advice

For observers, investors, and students of international relations, understanding Togo’s strategy offers several practical insights into modern African geopolitics:

1. Look Beyond Binary Choices

The narrative of a “New Cold War” where African nations must choose between the West and Russia is increasingly outdated. Countries like Togo demonstrate the viability of a multi-vector foreign policy. They leverage their geographic and strategic assets to extract benefits from multiple powers. Investors should note that a country’s partnership with Russia does not necessarily mean an immediate break from Western financial systems.

2. The Importance of Logistics

Geography remains destiny. Togo’s influence stems largely from the Port of Lomé. For businesses or policymakers, identifying critical infrastructure hubs (ports, railways, border crossings) provides insight into which nations will hold disproportionate influence in regional conflicts. Access to Lomé is a bargaining chip Togo uses to negotiate with landlocked neighbors and global superpowers alike.

3. Monitor Constitutional Engineering

When analyzing political stability in West Africa, pay close attention to constitutional changes that alter term limits or shift power to unelected bodies. Togo’s shift to a parliamentary system is a tactic often used to prolong authoritarian rule. This creates domestic volatility that can spill over into regional security, as seen with the cross-border movements of coup plotters.

FAQ

Conclusion

Togo is currently the ultimate diplomatic pragmatist. Under President Faure Gnassingbé, the nation is threading a needle between the established order of ECOWAS and the anti-Western realignment of the Sahelian juntas. By offering Russia logistical access while keeping dialogue open with Paris, Togo attempts to maximize its strategic value and economic options. However, this external balancing act is being used to mask a significant internal consolidation of power. While Togo may successfully navigate the geopolitical tightrope, the domestic cost of this strategy—suppressed dissent and eroded democratic norms—remains high. The world watches to see if this balancing act can hold.