NPP Primary: Bawumia Maintains Sturdy Lead in Latest Global InfoAnalytics Poll

Date: December 24, 2025 | Category: Politics / NPP News

Introduction

As the countdown to the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primary intensifies, the race to select the party’s flagbearer for the upcoming general election is entering a critical phase. With just over a month remaining before the scheduled January 31st election, the latest polling data from Global InfoAnalytics reveals a commanding position for former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia. According to the new survey, Dr. Bawumia is not only maintaining his frontrunner status but is also closing in on the crucial majority threshold needed to secure victory in the first round. This comprehensive analysis breaks down the numbers, the methodology, and the mathematical path to victory for the five contenders.

Key Points

Background

The New Patriotic Party (NPP) is preparing for a pivotal internal election to select its presidential candidate for the next general election. The primary, scheduled for January 31st, features a contest among five prominent party figures. Former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has been a consistent figure in the party’s leadership discussions, having led the outfit’s monthly surveys since the inception of this polling cycle.

The political atmosphere is charged as the party seeks to consolidate its base while reaching out to floating delegates. The Global InfoAnalytics survey, conducted via a random computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI), sampled approximately 3,000 delegates. This sample size provides a statistically significant snapshot of the party’s electorate, offering a clear view of the trends shaping the outcome of the upcoming primary.

Analysis: The Numbers Behind the Lead

The latest data from Global InfoAnalytics paints a detailed picture of the delegate landscape. By examining the “likely citizens survey,” we can identify specific trends that define the current political climate within the NPP.

The Top Tier: A Two-Horse Race?

Dr. Mahamuudu Bawumia sits at 45%, a formidable position that puts him within striking distance of the absolute majority required to avoid a run-off. However, the poll indicates that the race is not static. Kennedy Agyapong, his closest rival, has recorded a significant surge in momentum, gaining 13 percentage points in a single month compared to the November survey. He currently stands at 31%.

This narrowing of the gap suggests that while Bawumia remains the favorite, Agyapong is consolidating a specific segment of the delegate base, likely through aggressive campaigning and targeted messaging. The remaining candidates—Bryan Acheampong, Dr. Osei Yaw Adutwum, and Kwabena Agyapong—are currently polling at 3% and near 0%, respectively. Their support base appears statistically negligible at this stage, suggesting that their voters may be soft targets for the top two candidates as the election nears.

The “Undecided” 20%: The Deciding Factor

In any election, the most critical number is often the one that represents the unknown. In this survey, a total of 20% of delegates are classified as either undecided or unwilling to disclose their voting intentions. This is a massive bloc—roughly one in five voters—that could swing the election either way.

For the campaigns, this 20% represents the “low-hanging fruit.” The final month of campaigning will likely focus intensely on this group. The rhetoric will shift from general party vision to specific appeals aimed at converting these wavering delegates.

Mathematical Path to Victory

To win the primary outright on January 31st and avoid a run-off, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the valid votes cast. Based on the current figures, the math is challenging but achievable for the frontrunner.

With Dr. Bawumia at 45%, he is 5 percentage points away from the magic number. However, because the remaining 20% are in play, the threshold for him to win is effectively capturing 6% of the undecided/undisclosed vote. This is a manageable target given his current lead and the historical tendency of undecided voters to break toward the frontrunner.

Conversely, the situation is much steeper for Kennedy Agyapong. To surpass 50%, he would need to secure nearly all of the remaining 20% of votes, plus peel away support from Bawumia or the minor candidates. The survey suggests he would need to capture an additional 19% or more of the total vote, which is a herculean task in the final stretch.

Methodology: “Likely” vs. “Committed” Voters

Understanding the nuances of political polling requires looking at different models. Global InfoAnalytics provided two distinct data sets in this report: the “Likely Citizens Survey” and the “Committed Citizens Model.”

The Committed Model

The “Committed Citizens Model” filters out the undecided and soft supporters to look strictly at voters who have made up their minds. In this scenario, Dr. Bawumia’s dominance is even more pronounced. He commands 56% of the committed vote, while Kennedy Agyapong trails at 39%.

This data is crucial for the Bawumia campaign because it validates the strength of his core support. It suggests that if the election were held today among only those who are certain of their choice, the result would be a first-round victory. The challenge lies in ensuring that the “likely” voters turn out and that the undecideds break in his favor.

Practical Advice: What the Campaigns Should Do Next

With one month to go, the dynamics of the NPP primary require strategic pivots from all camps. Here is a breakdown of the tactical imperatives based on the survey data.

Strategy for the Bawumia Camp

Defend the Lead and Target the Undecided: The Bawumia campaign must avoid complacency. While the math favors them, the 13-point surge by Kennedy Agyapong shows that momentum can shift. Their strategy should be two-fold:

• Consolidation: Ensure that the 45% base turns out on election day.
• Outreach: Target the 20% undecided bloc with messages of unity and electability. They need to convince just 6% of the total electorate to secure the flagbearership.

Strategy for the Agyapong Camp

Disrupt the Narrative: Kennedy Agyapong’s 13-point gain indicates that his message is resonating with a segment of the party faithful. To close the gap, his camp must:

• Expand the Pie: He cannot simply rely on converting Bawumia voters; he must mobilize the inactive delegates and convert the undecideds at a very high rate.
• Focus on Turnout: He needs a high turnout in his strongholds to offset Bawumia’s broad appeal.

Strategy for the Minor Candidates

Pivot to Influence: With Bryan Acheampong, Dr. Osei Yaw Adutwum, and Kwabena Agyapong polling in the low single digits, a outright victory is statistically impossible. The practical advice for these candidates is to assess their viability. As the date approaches, they may consider:

• Coalition Building: Identifying which of the top two candidates aligns more closely with their vision and negotiating for influence in exchange for an endorsement.
• Issue-Based Campaigning: Using their platform to shape the party’s manifesto rather than focusing solely on winning the primary.

FAQ

Conclusion

The latest Global InfoAnalytics survey confirms that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is the man to beat in the NPP presidential primary. Holding a sturdy lead of 45% and a commanding 56% among committed voters, he is mathematically closer to the 50% threshold than any other candidate. However, the significant 20% bloc of undecided delegates ensures that the race is far from over. As campaigning intensifies in the final month, the ability of the frontrunners to convert this undecided vote will determine whether the NPP selects its flagbearer in one round or heads into a contentious run-off. For now, the data points to a Bawumia lead, but the momentum of his challengers suggests a dynamic and unpredictable finish.