NPP Unity in Peril: Why Leadership Rifts, Not Grassroots, Pose the Greatest Threat

The New Patriotic Party (NPP) of Ghana faces a critical juncture. While an overwhelming majority of its grassroots delegates express optimism about party unity, a leading pollster identifies a fissure at the very top that could unravel these hopes. According to Mussa Dankwa, Executive Director of Global Info Analytics, the sour sentiment is most pronounced among those surrounding key defeated figures, particularly within the camp of former flagbearer hopeful Kennedy Agyapong. This analysis explores the data, the dynamics, and the path forward for a party preparing for a high-stakes 2028 general election against a formidable opposition.

Introduction: A House Divided Against Itself

The conclusion of the NPP’s pivotal November 2023 presidential primary, which saw Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia emerge as the flagbearer for the 2024 and potentially 2028 elections, did not signal the end of intra-party strife. Instead, the focus has sharply shifted to the delicate process of reconciliation. Public pronouncements of unity mask underlying tensions that threaten the party’s cohesion. In a telling interview on Joy News’ PM Express, pollster Mussa Dankwa presented a paradox: the party’s base is ready to unite, but the upper echelons of the rival campaign structures remain a source of significant bitterness. This article dissects Dankwa’s claims, placing them within the context of Ghana’s competitive political landscape and offering a framework for understanding and addressing the NPP’s internal challenges.

Key Points: The Core of Dankwa’s Argument

Mussa Dankwa’s assessment, based on polling data and political observation, crystallizes around several non-negotiable truths for the NPP’s future:

• Grassroots Optimism vs. Leadership Sourness: Approximately 88% of NPP delegates are hopeful for unity. The problem is not this base but the unresolved tensions among top campaign principals and their key supporters.
• The “Top Level” is the Fault Line: The primary threat to harmony exists within the upper tiers of the defeated campaigns, particularly those of Kennedy Agyapong and Dr. Bryan Acheampong.
• Reconciliation is Prerequisite: Stability at the grassroots is contingent upon visible reconciliation and a demonstrated commitment to unity from the top leadership figures.
• The 2028 Imperative: With the NPP already in opposition following the 2024 election (a context implied by the forward-looking 2028 focus), any division is a luxury it cannot afford against a resurgent National Democratic Congress (NDC).
• A Specific Concern: Dankwa explicitly notes that “people around Ken’s team are a lot more bitter,” identifying a particular camp where resentment runs high.

Background: The 2023 Flagbearer Contest and Its Aftermath

The Electoral Outcome

The NPP’s presidential primary was a decisive but not uncontested victory for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia. The Electoral Commission’s official results placed him first with 56.48% of the valid votes cast. Kennedy Agyapong, the fiery Assin Central MP and a formidable grassroots mobilizer, came in a distant but significant second with 23.76% (46,554 votes). Other contenders, including Dr. Bryan Acheampong and Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto, garnered smaller shares. The result was a clear mandate for Bawumia but left a substantial minority of the party’s electoral college feeling disenfranchised.

The Political Stakes for 2028

While the immediate contest was for the 2024 election ticket, the long-term strategic battle is for 2028. The NPP, having lost the 2024 presidential election to the NDC’s John Dramani Mahama (an outcome that contextualizes the “where NPP is now” remark), is in a rebuilding phase. A united front is not merely desirable but existential. The party must present a cohesive alternative to the governing NDC, and internal wounds from the 2023 primary are a major vulnerability that the opposition will exploit.

Analysis: Deconstructing the Unity Threat

The Data: Hope at the Bottom, Fear at the Top

Dankwa’s polling reveals a classic grassroots-leadership disconnect. The 88% optimism among delegates suggests that the average party member, who may have voted for various candidates, is committed to the “big tent” philosophy of the NPP. Their hope is likely rooted in a shared desire to return to power and a pragmatic understanding that disunity equals defeat. However, this optimism is fragile. It depends on signals from the top. When key principals—those who commanded significant resources, campaign teams, and loyalists—remain entrenched or bitter, that sentiment trickles down, poisoning the well.

The “Sour” Camps: Focusing on Kennedy Agyapong’s Orbit

Dankwa’s specific diagnosis that “people around Ken’s team are a lot more bitter” is a crucial, data-informed observation. It points to several potential factors:

• Perception of Unfairness: Agyapong’s campaign was built on an anti-establishment, “let’s fix the country” message that resonated deeply. His supporters may feel the system was rigged or that his bold, confrontational style was unfairly penalized by the party’s old guard.
• High-Profile Defections: The post-primary period saw some prominent figures from Agyapong’s camp publicly express dissatisfaction or distance themselves from the Bawumia campaign. This visible dissent validates the feeling of betrayal among core supporters.
• The “What-If” Factor: Agyapong’s campaign was arguably the most energetic and media-savvy. His supporters may genuinely believe he was the party’s best chance against the NDC in 2024, making his loss feel like a strategic catastrophe for which the leadership must answer.

The bitterness is not necessarily from Agyapong himself—who has made nominal statements of support for the party—but from his key operatives, financiers, and grassroots coordinators who invested immense personal and political capital. Their ongoing resentment can manifest as passive resistance, lackluster campaigning, or even sabotage in key constituencies.

The Critical Role of Key Actors: Agyapong, Acheampong, and Bawumia

Dankwa’s forward-looking question—”What role does Ken Agyapong want to play going forward?”—is the central strategic dilemma. The path to unity requires:

• Kennedy Agyapong: A definitive, public, and repeated demonstration of loyalty to the party over his personal ambitions. This includes actively campaigning for Bawumia (and now the party’s 2024 candidate) and reining in his more bitter supporters. His immense influence with the base makes his posture decisive.
• Dr. Bryan Acheampong: As another major contender with a significant military and organizational background, his full-throated embrace of the unity agenda is equally vital. His camp’s posture sets a tone for other middle-tier contenders.
• Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (and now the Party Leadership): The flagbearer and the national executive must extend genuine olive branches. This means not just symbolic inclusion but substantive integration of Agyapong’s and Acheampong’s key strategists into the national campaign architecture, acknowledging their strength, and respecting their contributions. A perception of a “Bawumia-only” or “old guard” campaign will deepen the rift.

Practical Advice: A Roadmap for NPP Reconciliation

Moving from analysis to action, the NPP’s leadership must implement a deliberate, transparent, and sustained reconciliation strategy. Generic calls for unity are insufficient.

1. Structured, Private Engagement First

Before public grandstanding, the party’s apex leadership—including the National Chairman, General Secretary, and the flagbearer—must hold confidential, high-level meetings with Kennedy Agyapong, Dr. Bryan Acheampong, and their inner circles. The agenda must be: listening. Understanding the specific grievances, perceived slights, and demands of these camps is the first step to addressing them. This is not about dictating terms but about co-creating a shared vision for 2024/2028.

2. Public, Symbolic Acts of Unity

Following private talks, the party must orchestrate visible, unambiguous moments of reconciliation:

• Joint Campaign Appearances: Scheduled, high-profile rallies where Agyapong and Bawumia (or the 2024 candidate) share the stage, embrace, and speak of a common mission. These must be in Agyapong’s strongholds (e.g., Central Region) to maximize impact.
• Inclusive Campaign Team: The national campaign committee must have recognizable, senior figures from the Agyapong and Acheampong camps in substantive roles (e.g., regional coordinators, policy committee leads, deputy campaign managers).
• Shared Messaging: Campaign materials and speeches should acknowledge the “strong ideas and energy” from the primary and frame the election as a collective “NPP project” to save Ghana from the NDC.

3. Managing the “Bitter” Operatives

The rank-and-file bitterness Dankwa identifies requires direct management. The party leadership, in coordination with Agyapong, must identify the key “fire-starters” in his camp—the vocal critics and potential spoilers. A combination of engagement (explaining the stakes, appealing to party loyalty) and, if necessary, strategic sidelining from official campaign roles may be required to prevent sabotage. The message must be: “Your fight is now with the NDC, not with us.”

4. A Long-Term Narrative Beyond 2024

The reconciliation cannot be a one-time event for the 2024 election. The NPP must craft a narrative for 2028 that makes the 2023 primary a historical footnote. This involves:

• Promoting a “next generation” narrative that includes figures from all factions.
• Instituting party reforms (e.g., transparent primaries, dispute resolution mechanisms) to prevent a repeat of the 2023 bitterness.
• Ensuring that if the NPP loses in 2024, the post-mortem is a collective, not a factional, exercise, with all camps sharing responsibility and strategy for the next cycle.

FAQ: Addressing Common Queries on NPP Unity

Q1: Is the 88% delegate optimism for real, or is it just lip service?

Polling data typically captures stated preferences and hopes, which can differ from actual behavior. The 88% figure is a strong indicator of a *desire* for unity, which is a positive starting point. However, its veracity will be tested at the first sign of intra-party conflict or if key leaders remain visibly divided. True unity is measured by coordinated action, not just hopeful sentiment.

Q2: Why is the “sourness” specifically attributed to Kennedy Agyapong’s camp?

This attribution comes from a seasoned pollster’s on-the-ground observation and data analysis. Agyapong’s campaign was distinct: it was largely self-funded, bypassed traditional party structures, and directly appealed to the base with populist, anti-elitist rhetoric. This created a fiercely loyal but also potentially more disillusioned following when he lost. The sense of having “been robbed” of a rightful victory may be more acute in this camp compared to others who may have expected to lose or had less of a movement.

Q3: What are the concrete dangers if the NPP fails to unite?

The dangers are severe and multi-faceted:

• Electoral Defeat in 2024: A divided party cannot effectively campaign. Resources, messages, and ground troops will be fragmented, handing the NDC an easy victory.
• Long-Term Erosion: The party could fracture, with Agyapong-aligned MPs and members potentially becoming independent or forming a splinter group, weakening the NPP’s parliamentary strength for a decade.
• Loss of Voter Trust: The Ghanaian electorate punishes parties perceived as power-hungry and self-serving. Public bickering will confirm the NPP’s image as a party of internal competition, not national service.
• Policy Vacuum: Internal fights consume all oxygen, preventing the development of a compelling alternative policy platform to the NDC’s.

Q4: Can Kennedy Agyapong be trusted to genuinely unite behind Bawumia?

This is the million-dollar question. Agyapong’s history is one of fierce independence and confrontation. His commitment will be tested by his perception of how he and his supporters are treated. “Trust” must be built through consistent, reciprocal action. If he is given meaningful roles and his key allies are respected, his incentives to cooperate increase. If he is marginalized, his incentives to disrupt grow. The onus is on the Bawumia-led party hierarchy to create conditions where unity is his most rational and beneficial path.

Q5: How does this internal NPP dynamic affect the 2024 election against the NDC?

It is the single biggest variable. The NDC, having united behind John Dramani Mahama, is a cohesive force. They will campaign aggressively on the theme: “The NPP is divided; they do not have your interest at heart; they are fighting themselves while you suffer.” Every NPP internal squabble, every leaked tape of criticism, every absent Agyapong from a Bawumia rally, will be weaponized by the NDC. The NPP’s ability to present a seamless, passionate, and united front is its primary defense against this narrative.

Conclusion: The Unity Imperative is Non-Negotiable

Mussa Dankwa’s analysis cuts to the core of the NPP’s existential crisis. The party’s