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Ruthless Bandits: How Nigeria Ignores Early Warning Indicators and Risks a Heavy Price

Introduction

Nigeria is currently trapped in a perilous cycle of violence, particularly in the North-West and North-Central regions. Despite grim statistics and historical precedents, the nation continues to grapple with banditry through emotionally charged narratives rather than strategic clarity. This article explores the evolution of banditry in Nigeria, the failure to heed early warning indicators, and the urgent need for a differentiated security doctrine. Drawing on insights from Samuel Aruwan, a pioneer Commissioner for Internal Security and Home Affairs in Kaduna State, we examine why ignoring these warning signs has led to a catastrophe in national security.

Key Points

Background

Banditry is not a new phenomenon in Northern Nigeria. Historical accounts trace armed theft and cattle rustling back to the late 19th century in areas like Dansadau. However, the scale and lethality were historically limited by the absence of modern small arms.

The modern mutation of banditry emerged decisively in the post-2011 era. What began as rural criminality—cattle rustling and highway robbery—metastasized into mass kidnapping, village annihilation, sexual slavery, and territorial control.

The Evolution of Criminality

Scholarly research, including the work of Dr. Murtala Rufai, identifies early architects of banditry like Alhaji Kundu and Buhari Tsoho (Buharin Daji). Their operations expanded rapidly across Zamfara and neighboring states. By 2021, over 120 gangs were operating in the region.

Initially, the primary targets were Fulani herders whose cattle were rustled by bandits of the same ethnicity. As police interventions failed, legitimate herders resorted to self-help, acquiring low-calibre weapons. The bandits, however, escalated their firepower to automatic weapons (AK-47s), overpowering the herders and expanding their operations to include Hausa farming communities.

Analysis

The core of Nigeria’s banditry problem lies in the failure to recognize the shift from grievance-based violence to profit-driven criminal enterprise. Treating banditry as a sociological misunderstanding rather than a criminal market system has been a fatal error.

The Criminal Economy

Banditry is sustained by cash flow. It has evolved into a quasi-corporate organization with multiple revenue streams:

• Ransom Payments: The primary driver of kidnapping for ransom.
• Illicit Trade: Cattle sales, arms trafficking, and drug peddling.
• Resource Extraction: Illegal mining and forced taxation (protection levies).
• Transnational Networks: Collaboration with cross-border criminal syndicates.

This economic ecosystem allows bandits to establish shadow governance in ungoverned spaces, making them resilient against sporadic military raids.

The Trap of Dialogue

Several state governments have attempted to negotiate peace with bandit leaders. Notable attempts include a peace settlement in Katsina (January 2017) and a mass surrender ceremony in Zamfara (December 2019). While these accords often led to a temporary lull in violence, they invariably collapsed, with bandits regrouping and rearmed.

Former Governor Aminu Bello Masari of Katsina expressed frustration that peace accords rarely lasted more than a few months. In Kaduna State, the government maintained a hard stance against negotiation, a position validated by the escalation of attacks in 2021 and 2022. The intelligence reality is that bandits often use dialogue as a psychological operation to feign grievances while buying time to restock.

Media Framing and Ethnic Profiling

A significant impediment to an effective response is the media’s tendency to fracture the narrative along ethnic and religious lines. The criminality of bandits—who are predominantly of Fulani extraction—has unfortunately exacerbated farmers-herders conflicts. However, it is crucial to distinguish between criminal bandits and law-abiding herders.

Early victims of modern banditry were actually Fulani herders. The conflation of all Fulani people with banditry weakens the collective fight against crime and strengthens the bandits’ emotional narratives of ethnic persecution.

Practical Advice

To break the cycle of violence, Nigeria must adopt a strategic, intelligence-led approach that moves beyond emotional narratives.

1. Adopt a Threat Differentiation Doctrine

The government must formally abandon the tendency to treat “bandits” as a single category. Security forces should distinguish between:

• Low-Risk Actors: Non-state actors who armed themselves defensively. These groups should be engaged through dialogue, disarmament, and reintegration.
• High-Risk Criminal Franchises: Heavily armed networks engaged in mass kidnapping, mercenary killings, and transnational trafficking. These require decisive kinetic action.

2. Disincentivize Ransom and Protection Payments

The bandit market system survives on cash flow. Communities often pay “protection levies” or ransom to access farms or ensure safety. The state must:

• Ensure physical security so survival payments are not the only option.
• Classify indirect payments as terror financing.
• Dismantle community networks that facilitate ceasefire payments or act as intermediaries for ransoms.

3. Intelligence-Led Kinetic Operations

For entrenched, profit-driven networks, pressure must be relentless and intelligence-led. Operations should prioritize:

• Command nodes and logistics corridors.
• Arms supply chains and financial intermediaries.
• Forest-based staging areas.

Post-operation, the state must immediately restore civil authority, reopen schools, and secure markets. Clearing operations without holding ground leads to recycled violence.

4. Regulate Community Security Outfits

While community self-defense (e.g., Yan-Sakai) emerged from necessity, excesses have escalated violence through ethnic profiling and extrajudicial killings. State-backed security outfits must be regulated, trained in human rights, and held accountable to prevent cycles of reprisal.

FAQ

Conclusion

Nigeria stands at a critical juncture. The country has ignored early warning signs, repeating the disastrous trajectories of Maitatsine and Boko Haram. Banditry is not merely a sociological misunderstanding; it is a violent criminal market system threatening Nigeria’s sovereignty.

To avert paying an even higher price, Nigeria must abandon emotional narratives and adopt a disciplined, intelligence-led security strategy. This involves clearly differentiating between criminal franchises and grievance-driven actors, cutting off the financial oxygen to bandits, and ensuring that security operations are followed by the restoration of civil authority. Without strategic clarity and resolve, the cycle of violence will persist, devastating lives and crippling the nation’s future.