Introduction

The New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential race is heating up as Sanity Africa, a respected Pan-African polling organization, releases its latest Phase Three survey ahead of the NPP primaries slated for January 31, 2026. This comprehensive analysis explores the leading position of Ken Agyapong, former Assin Central MP, and examines the implications of the poll results for Ghana’s upcoming election cycle. Whether you are a political science student, an active voter, or a casual observer, this detailed report offers context, insights, and expert advice.

Key Points

Background

The Role of Political Polls in Ghana

Political polling is a vital tool for understanding voter sentiment and predicting the outcomes of elections. In Ghana, independent polling firms like Sanity Africa are widely regarded for their rigorous methodologies and commitment to transparency. Their surveys are frequently referenced by media outlets and political commentators as indicators of electoral trends.

Sanity Africa Polling Methodology

Sanity Africa’s latest survey aims to capture delegate preferences within the NPP ahead of the presidential primaries. The poll sampled 15,000 delegates from across Ghana’s 276 constituencies, ensuring a representative cross-section of the party’s grassroots and leadership. A weighted pattern was applied to reflect the distribution of delegates in the party’s expanded delegate album, which comprises approximately 211,000 citizens, including former appointees and former government officials.

Frequency and Significance of Phase Polls

The Phase Three poll is the third major electoral survey released by Sanity Africa in 2025. Previous polls, including Phase Two, have provided valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of the NPP presidential race. These polling updates help inform political strategies, voter engagement initiatives, and media narratives.

Analysis

Agyapong’s Strong Performance

Ken Agyapong’s commanding lead at 52% in the Phase Three poll is a significant milestone in the NPP presidential race. As a legislator with a long-standing reputation for integrity and policy expertise, Agyapong’s support among delegates signals widespread trust in his leadership and vision for Ghana. His 52% share places him well ahead of his main rivals, including Dr. Bawumia and Dr. Acheampong.

Dr. Bawumia’s Second Place

Former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, a seasoned politician and former NPP standard-bearer, holds second place with 40% support. Bawumia’s experience and national recognition make him a formidable contender, and his rise in the polls reflects the enduring appeal of his “reformist” agenda. However, Agyapong’s lead leaves a significant margin for other candidates to challenge or influence the race.

Competitive Landscape

While Agyapong and Bawumia dominate the race, other candidates such as Dr. Bryan Acheampong (7%) and Dr. Osei Yaw Adutwum (0.7%) also attract support from specific segments of the party base. Their presence underscores the diverse ideological and regional interests within the NPP and highlights the need for strategic campaign messaging to address these competing visions.

Margin of Error and Confidence Interval

The poll’s margin of error of ±5% and 99% confidence level indicate a high degree of statistical reliability. This means that the reported results should be interpreted as representative of the broader NPP membership with a small margin for variation. For political analysts, these figures provide a solid foundation for further interpretation and strategic planning.

Shifts Since Previous Polls

Compared to the October Phase Two poll, there were notable changes in delegate preferences. Agyapong’s support marginally dipped by 1.1 points, while Bawumia gained 1.0 points. Dr. Acheampong also experienced the most significant rise, up by 2.0 points. These shifts could be interpreted as responses to campaign activities, endorsements, or evolving party priorities.

Practical Advice for Voters and Political Actors

Understanding Polling Data

For voters, it is crucial to view polling results as one piece of the broader electoral puzzle. The latest poll provides valuable insights but should be considered alongside other factors, such as campaign promises, party platforms, and candidate leadership qualities. Always verify the methodology and sample size of polls to assess their reliability.

Strategic Engagement in the Primaries

Political actors, including party leaders and campaign teams, should use polling data to inform their strategies. Focus on addressing delegate concerns, building coalitions, and communicating a clear vision for Ghana’s future. The remaining weeks before the January 31 primaries offer a critical opportunity to sway undecided supporters and consolidate existing leads.

Media Literacy and Fact-Checking

With the proliferation of political news, misinformation, and biased reporting, developing media literacy skills is essential. Cross-check polling results with reputable sources, and be wary of sensational claims. Polling organizations like Sanity Africa provide detailed methodology reports that can help debunk misleading interpretations.

Regional and Ideological Diversity

The NPP’s delegate base is diverse, with strong representation from various regions and ideological camps. Candidates should tailor their messaging to address specific issues and priorities within their target constituencies. This approach will help broaden support and ensure a more representative and inclusive primary outcome.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the significance of the Sanity Africa poll?

The Sanity Africa poll is a leading indicator of delegate preferences within the NPP ahead of the presidential primaries. Its methodology and results are widely respected and provide valuable insights into the state of the presidential race.

How is the poll conducted?

The survey involves a weighted sample of 15,000 delegates from across Ghana’s 276 constituencies. Data is collected using scientifically sound methodologies to ensure representativeness and accuracy.

Who leads the NPP presidential race according to the poll?

Ken Agyapong leads the NPP presidential race with 52% support in the latest Sanity Africa poll.

What is the margin of error for the poll?

The margin of error is ±5%, and the poll has a 99% confidence level.

Who is Dr. Bawumia’s standing in the poll?

Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia holds second place with 40% support in the latest poll.

Can the poll results change before the primaries?

Yes, the race may still shift in the final weeks leading up to the primaries due to campaign activities, endorsements, and regional mobilization.

Conclusion

The Sanity Africa Phase Three poll reveals a dynamic and competitive landscape for the NPP presidential race, with Ken Agyapong firmly in the lead at 52%. While the results provide valuable insights, it is important to recognize the unpredictability of political contests, especially in the run-up to the January 31 primaries. Voters, candidates, and political analysts are all encouraged to remain engaged, informed, and open to new developments as the race unfolds.