Introduction

The fragile peace deal brokered by former U.S. President Donald Trump between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) and Rwanda has collapsed following a significant offensive by the M23 rebel group. The rebels’ seizure of the strategic town of Uvira in South Kivu province has escalated tensions, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict in Africa’s Great Lakes region.

This article examines the causes and consequences of the deal’s failure, the role of regional actors, and the potential pathways to restore stability.

Key Points

Background

The Trump-Brokered Peace Deal

In June 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump facilitated a landmark peace agreement between DR Congo and Rwanda, aimed at ending decades of conflict in the Great Lakes region. The deal, signed in Washington, D.C., was hailed as a historic step toward stability. However, the M23 rebel group, a key player in the conflict, was not a signatory to the agreement.

The M23 Rebel Group

The M23 (March 23 Movement) is a rebel faction primarily composed of ethnic Tutsis, many of whom were former members of the Congolese military. The group has been active in eastern DR Congo since 2012, with alleged backing from Rwanda. The United Nations and international observers have repeatedly accused Rwanda of providing military and logistical support to the M23, a claim Rwanda denies.

Regional Dynamics

The Great Lakes region is a complex web of ethnic, political, and economic tensions. Rwanda and DR Congo have a long history of conflict, often fueled by competition over resources and ethnic divisions. Burundi, another key player, has historically aligned with DR Congo due to its own tensions with Rwanda. The recent offensive by the M23 has further complicated these dynamics, particularly with Burundi’s military involvement in supporting DR Congo’s forces.

Analysis

Why Did the M23 Seize Uvira?

Experts suggest that the M23’s capture of Uvira was a strategic move to gain leverage in ongoing peace negotiations. According to Professor Jason Stearns, a political scientist specializing in the region, the M23 likely sought to strengthen its bargaining position. Additionally, the offensive may have been intended to pressure Burundi into withdrawing its troops from eastern DR Congo, where they have been supporting the Congolese military.

Strategic Significance of Uvira

Uvira is a critical town due to its proximity to Burundi’s capital, Bujumbura, and its role as a logistical hub for Burundian troops. The town’s fall cuts off a vital supply route for Burundi, which has been supporting DR Congo’s military efforts against the M23. Bram Verelst, a researcher with the Institute for Security Studies, noted that Uvira’s capture could force Burundi to reconsider its military engagement in the region.

Rwanda’s Role and International Accusations

The U.S. and European powers have accused Rwanda of backing the M23’s offensive, a claim Rwanda vehemently denies. However, Rwanda’s presence at the Washington peace deal negotiations suggests its influence over the rebel group. The U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, stated that Rwanda’s actions are “leading the region toward more instability and conflict.”

Impact on the Peace Process

The collapse of the peace deal has left the region in a precarious position. The U.S.-led negotiations are now in jeopardy, and the parallel peace process led by Qatar has also stalled. The M23’s military gains have given it significant leverage, making it unlikely that DR Congo’s government will engage in further talks without concessions.

Practical Advice

For Policymakers

• Diplomatic Pressure: The U.S. and its allies should increase diplomatic pressure on Rwanda to withdraw support for the M23 and engage in meaningful negotiations.
• Humanitarian Aid: International organizations must prioritize humanitarian assistance for the thousands of displaced people fleeing the conflict.
• Regional Dialogue: Encourage inclusive peace talks that involve all stakeholders, including the M23, to ensure a sustainable resolution.

For Journalists and Researchers

• Fact-Checking: Verify claims from all sides of the conflict, particularly regarding Rwanda’s involvement and the M23’s military capabilities.
• Contextual Reporting: Provide historical and political context to help audiences understand the complexities of the Great Lakes region.
• Human Stories: Highlight the experiences of civilians affected by the conflict to humanize the crisis.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What was the Trump-brokered peace deal?

The deal was an agreement signed in Washington, D.C., in 2025 between DR Congo and Rwanda, aimed at ending decades of conflict in the Great Lakes region. It included provisions for disarming militant groups and promoting economic cooperation.

Who are the M23 rebels?

The M23 is a rebel group active in eastern DR Congo, primarily composed of ethnic Tutsis. The group has been accused of receiving support from Rwanda, though Rwanda denies these allegations.

Why is Uvira strategically important?

Uvira is a key logistical hub near the Burundian border, serving as a supply route for Burundian troops supporting DR Congo’s military. Its capture by the M23 disrupts this supply line and weakens Burundi’s military presence in the region.

What is Rwanda’s role in the conflict?

Rwanda has been accused by the U.S. and other international actors of backing the M23 rebels. While Rwanda denies these claims, its influence over the group is widely suspected.

What are the humanitarian consequences of the conflict?

The conflict has displaced over 50,000 people, many of whom have fled into Burundi. The humanitarian crisis is exacerbated by food and fuel shortages in the region.

Conclusion

The collapse of Trump’s peace deal and the M23’s seizure of Uvira mark a critical turning point in the Great Lakes conflict. The offensive has not only undermined diplomatic efforts but also raised the specter of a broader regional war. The international community must act swiftly to de-escalate tensions, protect civilians, and revive the peace process.

For lasting stability, all parties—including the M23, Rwanda, DR Congo, and Burundi—must engage in sincere negotiations. The U.S. and its allies have a pivotal role in mediating these talks and ensuring that economic and security interests do not overshadow the urgent need for peace.