Boko Haram Resurgence Under Tinubu: Security Failures and National Implications

Introduction

President Bola Tinubu’s administration faces mounting criticism as Nigeria grapples with escalating terrorist violence. Recent attacks by Boko Haram and affiliated groups have exposed critical gaps in national security, raising questions about the government’s ability to protect citizens. This analysis examines the timeline of attacks, policy responses, and the broader implications for Nigeria’s stability and sovereignty.

Analysis: Escalating Security Crisis

Wave of Terrorist Attacks

Between November 17-21, 2024, Nigeria experienced four major security incidents:

• Ambush killing of Brigadier General Musa Uba and four personnel in Borno State
• Kidnapping of 24 schoolgirls from Maga, Kebbi State
• Church attack in Eruku, Kwara State (3 killed, 38 abducted)
• Mass abduction of 315 students/staff from St Mary’s School in Niger State

Government Response Patterns

The Tinubu administration’s reactive measures included:

• School closures across 47 Federal Unity Colleges
• State-level shutdowns in 9 northern states
• Negotiated releases through ransom payments (disguised as rescue operations)

Summary: Key Security Developments

The November 2024 crisis highlights three critical trends:

1. Increased operational boldness from terrorist groups
2. Systemic weaknesses in intelligence and military response
3. Growing humanitarian consequences from mass displacement

Key Points: Nigeria’s Security Challenges

Military Vulnerabilities

The ambush of senior officers demonstrates degraded counterinsurgency capabilities, with terrorists now targeting command structures.

Education System Collapse

School closures directly advance Boko Haram’s anti-education agenda, potentially adding millions to Nigeria’s 18.3 million out-of-school children (UNICEF 2024).

Economic Multipliers

UN World Food Programme warns 35 million Nigerians may face acute hunger by mid-2025 due to farming disruptions in conflict zones.

Practical Advice: Security Policy Recommendations

• Implement community-based early warning systems
• Accelerate police/military training programs
• Develop alternative education delivery models for conflict zones
• Strengthen cross-border intelligence sharing

Points of Caution: Risks of Current Approach

• Ransom payments incentivize repeat kidnappings
• Permanent school closures risk radicalizing displaced youth
• Over-reliance on reactive measures undermines long-term strategy

Comparison: Historical Counterterrorism Approaches

Legal Implications: Counterterrorism Law Challenges

While Nigeria’s Terrorism Prevention Act prohibits ransom payments, the government’s indirect negotiation tactics raise questions about:

• Compliance with international counterterrorism financing laws
• Potential violations of domestic anti-terror statutes
• Accountability for security sector failures

Conclusion: Assessing National Security Priorities

The November 2024 attacks reveal systemic governance failures requiring comprehensive reforms. Without addressing root causes – including poverty, education access, and intelligence capabilities – Nigeria risks further erosion of state authority to non-state actors.

FAQ: Nigeria’s Security Crisis

How many Nigerians has Boko Haram displaced?

Over 500,000 in the past two years (Amnesty International).

What percentage of abductees are women/children?

Approximately 72% based on 2024 incident data.

Has foreign intervention occurred?

Limited technical assistance, but no direct foreign military involvement.