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US Bombing Sokoto: FG at the Horns of a Catch-22 Situation, via Dele Sobowale

Introduction

The geopolitical landscape of Nigeria’s security architecture shifted dramatically on Christmas Day 2025, following a controversial military intervention by the United States. What was initially hailed as a decisive strike against terrorism in Sokoto State has since spiraled into a complex diplomatic and domestic crisis. This article analyzes the fallout from the US airstrike, the Federal Government’s (FG) precarious position, and the intelligence discrepancies that have fueled public skepticism. As the narrative unfolds, it becomes evident that the FG finds itself trapped in a “Catch-22” scenario—damned if they claim responsibility for a failed operation, and damned if they admit to foreign overreach.

Key Points

Background

The Christmas Day Announcement

On December 25, 2025, President Donald Trump disrupted the holiday season with a bold declaration. He announced that the United States had launched “Christmas presents” to terrorists operating within Nigeria. This was quickly corroborated by US Congressman Riley Moore, who celebrated the deployment of 12 Tomahawk missiles against “radical Islamic terrorists.” The narrative presented to the global community was one of precision and success.

The Federal Government’s Response

In an effort to project sovereignty and partnership, the Nigerian Federal Government swiftly validated the US claims. The Director of Defence Information stated that the operation was collectively carried out, approved by the FG, and based on credible intelligence. Furthermore, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, appeared on CNN to confirm that President Tinubu had sanctioned the attacks. This official stance aimed to reassure Nigerians that the military was taking aggressive steps to end insecurity.

Analysis

The “Habeas Corpus” Problem and Intelligence Failure

The core of the controversy lies in the lack of verifiable evidence. In legal terms, *Habeas Corpus* demands the production of the body to prove a crime occurred. In this military context, the “bodies” of the alleged terrorists are missing.

Dele Sobowale’s investigation reveals a stark contrast between the White House narrative and the reality on the ground. Upon contacting locals in the Shagari village axis of Sokoto and Jega in Kebbi State, a singular fact emerged: the missiles landed harmlessly far from any terrorist camps. There were no casualties, no blood trails, and no abandoned weapons.

This suggests a catastrophic intelligence failure on both sides. The US relied on data that led them to the wrong coordinates, while Nigerian intelligence failed to verify the accuracy of the targets before authorizing the strike. The delay in reporting—four days between the strike and the *Daily Trust* report suggesting casualties—raises further suspicion of a cover-up or the use of AI-generated narratives to justify the operation.

Wrong War, Wrong Place, Wrong Time

A critical analysis of the security situation reveals that the US intervention is strategically misplaced. ISIS and Boko Haram activities are concentrated in the North-East and parts of the North-Central region. Sokoto, located in the North-West, is primarily a theater for banditry and kidnapping, not ISIS strongholds.

By bombing the North-West, the US has engaged in a “wrong war” in the “wrong place.” This misalignment suggests a lack of understanding of Nigeria’s complex internal security dynamics. It risks drawing the Federal Government into a conflict driven by American domestic politics rather than Nigerian national interest.

The Catch-22 Situation for the FG

The Federal Government is now trapped in a diplomatic Catch-22:
1. **Option A:** Maintain the lie that the joint operation was a success. This risks exposure when independent verification proves otherwise, damaging the government’s credibility.
2. **Option B:** Admit that the US acted unilaterally or incompetently. This risks diplomatic friction with the US administration and exposes Nigeria’s vulnerability to foreign military errors.

Additionally, by sanctioning the bombing, the FG has inadvertently validated a strategy that may cause more harm than good. If the US continues to use Nigeria as a “target practice” zone for its geopolitical posturing, the Tinubu administration will bear the brunt of the anger from affected local communities.

Practical Advice

For the Federal Government

* **Demand Transparency:** The FG must insist on a joint forensic investigation of the strike sites. If the US claims terrorists were killed, independent observers must be allowed to verify the site immediately.
* **Review Intelligence Protocols:** There must be an urgent audit of the intelligence sharing framework with the US. Authorizing airstrikes based on “credible intelligence” requires a higher standard of verification to prevent future errors.
* **Reassure Local Populations:** The government needs to address the confusion and fear in communities like Offa (Kwara) and Shagari (Sokoto). The narrative that “we are protecting you” is undermined when missiles land in civilian or non-combatant areas.

For National Security

* **Focus on Internal Solutions:** The security architecture cannot be outsourced. The complexity of banditry in the North-West and herder-farmer clashes in the North-Central requires indigenous strategies, not just foreign airpower.
* **Avoid Political Bandwagoning:** Officials should avoid rushing to claim “victory” alongside foreign powers before the dust settles and facts are established.

FAQ

Conclusion

The Christmas Day airstrike in Sokoto serves as a stark reminder of the complexities of international military cooperation. While the Federal Government sought to project strength through a partnership with the United States, the operation has instead highlighted significant intelligence gaps and strategic misalignments. The discrepancy between the Trump administration’s claims and the reality on the ground places the Tinubu administration in a precarious position. To regain public trust and national sovereignty, the FG must prioritize verifiable facts over political rhetoric and ensure that Nigeria’s security is not compromised by foreign miscalculations.